Modeling tick-borne disease: a metapopulation model.
Recent increases in reported outbreaks of tick-borne diseases have led to increased interest in understanding and controlling epidemics involving these transmission vectors. Mathematical disease models typically assume constant population size and spatial homogeneity. For tick-borne diseases, these assumptions are not always valid. The disease model presented here incorporates non-constant population sizes and spatial heterogeneity utilizing a system of differential equations that may be applied to a variety of spatial patches. We present analytical results for the one patch version and find parameter restrictions under which the populations and infected densities reach equilibrium. We then numerically explore disease dynamics when parameters are allowed to vary spatially and temporally and consider the effectiveness of various tick-control strategies.
Gaff
Holly D
HD
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Maryland, 660 West Redwood Street, Howard Hall, Room 140D, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA. hgaff@epi.umaryland.edu
Gross
Louis J
LJ
D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018469:Ehrlichia chaffeensis / Q000254:growth & development*; D016873:Ehrlichiosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D007300:Insect Control / Q000379:methods; D026863:Ixodidae / Q000382:microbiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D013714:Tennessee / Q000453:epidemiology; D017282:Tick-Borne Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control