title: Incidence and natural history of Raynaud phenomenon: A long-term follow-up (14 years) of a random sample from the general population.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Because the natural history of primary Raynaud phenomenon (RP) is unclear, we undertook this long-term (14 years) follow-up of an epidemiologic study on RP to investigate the incidence, remittance rate, and transition rate toward systemic sclerosis and other scleroderma spectrum disorders in a population-based sample of subjects.
  
  
  METHODS
  In 1988 and 1989, 296 subjects obtained from a random sample of the general population of the Alpine valley of Tarentaise (southeast France) completed a cross-sectional study on RP. Of these, 78 met the diagnostic criteria for RP (RP+). From April 2002 to March 2003, we were able to get follow-up information on 292 people (dropout rate, 1.4%). Eighteen subjects (6.1%) had died, and the remaining 274 were successfully contacted. They were first evaluated by a standardized phone interview regarding their cold sensitivity, digital color changes, and RP. If any significant medical changes related to RP and/or suggesting scleroderma were reported, these subjects were invited for a medical evaluation.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Mortality was similar in RP+ and RP- subjects, and no death was due to an RP-related condition. Seven cases of new RP were diagnosed in the RP- group, which corresponds to an annual incidence rate of 0.25%. Among the 72 RP+ subjects and the 7 subjects with a new RP available for follow-up, none developed clinical features of scleroderma. A disappearance of RP attacks for 2 winters or more was reported by 24 RP+ subjects (33%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These results show that, in the general population, RP is most often a benign condition and may disappear in a substantial proportion of subjects.
authors.affiliation: Centre de Recherche Universitaire, La Léchère, France. patrick.carpentier@ujf-grenoble.fr
authors.forename: Patrick H
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Carpentier
authors.forename: Bernadette
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Satger
authors.forename: Dominique
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Poensin
authors.forename: Hildegard R
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Maricq
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011379:Prognosis; D011928:Raynaud Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D015996:Survival Rate; D013997:Time Factors