FluSurge--a tool to estimate demand for hospital services during the next pandemic influenza.
OBJECTIVE
To assess the impact of pandemic influenza on hospital services.


METHODS
Based on census data and estimates of hospital resources (non-ICU [intensive care unit] beds, ICU beds, and mechanical ventilators) in a given area, FluSurge software estimates the number of hospital admissions and deaths due to pandemic influenza under variable duration and virulence scenarios and compares hospital resources needed during a pandemic with existing hospital resources.


RESULTS
Sample results from Metropolitan Atlanta illustrate how the next influenza pandemic may overwhelm existing hospital resources, given that hospitals increasingly operate at nearly full capacity.


CONCLUSIONS
Hospitals need to consider and plan for a surge in demand for hospital services during the next influenza pandemic.
Zhang
Xinzhi
X
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Office of Surveillance, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA. XZhang4@cdc.gov
Meltzer
Martin I
MI
Wortley
Pascale M
PM
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003658:Decision Making, Computer-Assisted; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006295:Health Resources / Q000600:supply & distribution; D006742:Hospital Bed Capacity / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006760:Hospitalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D007362:Intensive Care Units / Q000600:supply & distribution; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020380:Needs Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D013022:South Carolina; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012122:Ventilators, Mechanical / Q000600:supply & distribution