title: Subthreshold and superthreshold coexistence of pathogen variants: the impact of host age-structure.
abstract: It is well known that in the most general epidemic models with multiple pathogen variants a competitive exclusion principle is valid, such that the variant with the highest reproduction number eliminates the rest. Mechanisms such as super-infection, coinfection, and cross-immunity can lead to pathogen polymorphism where multiple strains coexist. It is also known that variability of infectivity with host age can destabilize the endemic equilibrium and cause oscillations. In this article we show that the hosts' chronological age can itself lead to coexistence of microparasites in the most basic model where competitive exclusion will occur without the age structure. Moreover, the host age-structure leads to multiple subthreshold dominance equilibria, and both weakly and strongly subthreshold coexistence. We find that the two pathogens cannot cooperate to persist subthreshold if neither one of them can persist subthreshold by itself. If, however, one of them can persist subthreshold by itself, it can cause the two pathogens to coexist in a strongly subthreshold equilibrium. The second strain that persists subthreshold through the mediation of the first always has a lower virulence. Our results show that age structure in infectivity can permit the coexistence of competing pathogens when the incidence is of proportionate mixing type (frequency-dependent transmission) and at least one of the strains is virulent.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, 358 Little Hall, PO Box 118105, Gainesville, FL 32611-8105, USA. maia@math.ufl.edu
authors.forename: Maia
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Martcheva
authors.forename: Sergei S
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Pilyugin
authors.forename: Robert D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Holt
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D001424:Bacterial Infections / Q000382:microbiology*; D018407:Bacterial Physiological Phenomena; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological