title: Clinical prediction rules for bacteremia and in-hospital death based on clinical data at the time of blood withdrawal for culture: An evaluation of their development and use.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop clinical prediction rules for true bacteremia, blood culture positive for gram-negative rods, and in-hospital death using the data at the time of blood withdrawal for culture.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data on all hospitalized adults who underwent blood cultures at a tertiary care hospital in Japan were collected from an integrated medical computing system. Logistic regression was used for developing prediction rules followed by the jackknife cross validation.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among 739 patients, 144 (19.5%) developed true bacteremia, 66 (8.9) were positive for gram-negative rods, and 203 (27.5%) died during hospitalization. Prediction rule based on the data at the time of blood withdrawal for culture stratified them into five groups with probabilities of true bacteremia 6.5, 9.6, 21.9, 30.1, and 59.6%. For blood culture positive for gram-negative rods, the probabilities were 0.6, 4.7, 8.6, and 31.7%, and for in-hospital death, those were 6.7, 15.5, 26.0, 35.5, and 56.1%. The area of receiver operating characteristic for true bacteremia, blood culture positive for gram-negative rods, and in-hospital death were 0.73, 0.64, and 0.64, respectively, in original cohort and 0.72, 0.64, and 0.64 in validation respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The clinical prediction rules are helpful for improved clinical decision making for bacteremia patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of General Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology, Kyoto University Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto, Japan.
authors.forename: Tsukasa
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nakamura
authors.forename: Osamu
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Takahashi
authors.forename: Kunihiko
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Matsui
authors.forename: Shiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Shimizu
authors.forename: Motoichi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Setoyama
authors.forename: Masahisa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Nakagawa
authors.forename: Tsuguya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Fukui
authors.forename: Takeshi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Morimoto
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D016470:Bacteremia / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality*; D001769:Blood / Q000382:microbiology*; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D005260:Female; D016905:Gram-Negative Bacterial Infections / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality*; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008828:Microbiological Techniques; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve