Does Static-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders?
Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) is the most commonly used actuarial risk tool for estimating sexual offender recidivism risk. Recent research has suggested that its methods of accounting for the offenders' ages may be insufficient to capture declines in recidivism risk associated with advanced age. Using data from 8 samples (combined size of 3,425 sexual offenders), the present study found that older offenders had lower Static-99 scores than younger offenders and that Static-99 was moderately accurate in estimating relative recidivism risk in all age groups. Older offenders, however, had lower sexual recidivism rates than would be expected based on their Static-99 risk categories. Consequently, evaluators using Static-99 should considered advanced age in their overall estimate of risk.
Hanson
R K
RK
Corrections Research, Public Safety Canada, 340 Laurier Ave., West, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0P8, Canada. karl.hanson@psepc-sppcc.gc.ca
D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D002170:Canada / Q000453:epidemiology; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011594:Psychometrics; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012107:Research Design; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000523:psychology*