title: The value of database controls in pilot or futility studies in ALS.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the use and reliability of database controls in place of a placebo group in pilot or "futility" ALS trials.
  
  
  METHODS
  We compared the rates of disease progression in the placebo arm of the clinical phase III US Insulin-like Growth Factor-I Trial (n = 90) with the rates of disease progression of 207 patients with ALS selected from 1,600 ALS database patients using the same inclusion criteria.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean rates of change in the Appel ALS (AALS) score were nearly identical in the placebo group (4.70 points/month) and in the database group (4.79 points/month). In addition, there was no significant difference in the median time to achieving a 20-point progression in AALS score: 143 days for database match vs 146 days for the placebo group (log rank p = 0.88). Furthermore, in the multivariate Cox analysis, both the rate at which the disease had progressed prior to first exam (preslope) (p < 0.001) and first exam AALS total score (p = 0.01) were shown to be covariates of subsequent rate of disease progression.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The similarity in disease progression between placebo arm of clinical phase III trial and matched database group suggests the value of historical databases in futility trials. However, the proposed study design requires appropriate matching of study patients with database controls. Based on our results, we suggest matching by stage of the disease and rate of clinical decline in a contemporaneous ALS population.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Czaplinski
authors.forename: L J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Haverkamp
authors.forename: A A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Yen
authors.forename: E P
authors.initials: EP
authors.lastname: Simpson
authors.forename: E C
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Lai
authors.forename: S H
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Appel
mesh_terms: D000690:Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis / Q000188:drug therapy*; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic / Q000592:standards*; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D016208:Databases, Factual / Q000592:standards*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007334:Insulin-Like Growth Factor I / Q000627:therapeutic use; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010865:Pilot Projects; D015990:Placebo Effect; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D007334:Insulin-Like Growth Factor I