title: Prediction of postprandial glycemic exposure: utility of fasting and 2-h glucose measurements alone and in combination with assessment of body composition, fitness, and strength.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the best predictors of total postprandial glycemic exposure and peak glucose concentrations in nondiabetic humans.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from 203 nondiabetic volunteers who ingested a carbohydrate-containing mixed meal were analyzed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Fasting glucose and insulin concentrations were poor predictors of postprandial glucose area above basal (R2 = approximately 0.07, P < 0.001). The correlation was stronger for 2-h glucose concentration (R2 = 0.55, P < 0.001) and improved slightly but significantly (P < 0.001) with the addition of fasting glucose, insulin, age, sex, and body weight to the model (r2 = 0.58). The 2-h glucose concentration also predicted the peak glucose concentration (R2 = 0.37, P < 0.001) with strength of the prediction increasing (P < 0.001) modestly with the addition of fasting glucose, insulin, age, sex, and body weight to the model (R2 = 0.48, P < 0.001). On the other hand, addition of measures of body function and composition did not improve prediction of total glycemic exposure or peak glucose concentration.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Isolated measures of fasting or 2-h glucose concentrations alone or in combination with more complex measures of body composition and function are poor predictors of postprandial glycemic exposure or peak glucose concentration. This may explain, at least in part, the weak and at times inconsistent relationship between these parameters and cardiovascular risk.
authors.affiliation: Division of Endocrinology, Diabetes, Metabolism and Nutrition, Mayo Clinic Rochester, 200 First St. SW, Rm. 5-194 Joseph, Rochester, MN 55905, USA.
authors.forename: Ohad
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Cohen
authors.forename: Rita
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Basu
authors.forename: Gerlies
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bock
authors.forename: Chiara
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Dalla Man
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Campioni
authors.forename: Ananda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Basu
authors.forename: Gianna
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Toffolo
authors.forename: Claudio
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cobelli
authors.forename: Robert A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Rizza
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism*; D001823:Body Composition; D001835:Body Weight; D005215:Fasting; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D010809:Physical Fitness; D019518:Postprandial Period; D012016:Reference Values; D015203:Reproducibility of Results
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose