title: Probability model of the inaccuracy of residual stromal thickness prediction to reduce the risk of ectasia after LASIK part I: quantifying individual risk.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To measure the imprecision of microkeratome cuts, preoperative corneal pachymetry, and laser ablation depth and develop a statistical model to describe the probability of the residual stromal bed thickness (RST) after myopic LASIK being significantly thinner than predicted.
  
  
  METHODS
  Preoperative corneal thickness, flap thickness, ablation depth, and RST were measured in 36 eyes by a prototype three-dimensional very high-frequency (VHF) 50 MHz digital ultrasound scanning device (<1.2 microm precision), precursor to the commercially available Artemis 2. All eyes had undergone LASIK with the Moria LSK-One microkeratome and the NIDEK EC-5000 excimer laser. Based on the statistically combined uncertainty (standard deviation) and bias (accuracy to intended value) of corneal thickness measurement, flap thickness, and ablation depth, a continuous probability function was devised describing the chance of obtaining an actual RST less than a specified "cut-off". The model was applied using the data collected from the cohort of eyes. The model was also applied using published flap thickness statistics on a series of microkeratomes.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Precision (standard deviation) was 0.74 microm for VHF digital ultrasound measurement of pachymetry, 30.3 microm for Moria LSK-One flap thickness, and 11.2 microm for NIDEK EC-5000 ablation depth. Assuming negligible laser ablation depth bias, the model found the probability that the actual RST will be <200 pmicromgiven a target RST of 250 microm is 7.56% with the Moria LSK-One. The model applied to published flap statistics revealed a range of probabilities of leaving <200 microm given a target RST of 250 microm from <0.01% to 33.6%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The choice of microkeratome, laser, and pachymeter has a significant impact on the variation of the depth of keratectomy and thus on the risk of ectasia. This model together with high-precision microkeratomes, preoperative pachymetry, and knowledge of laser ablation precision would enable surgeons to determine the specific imprecision of RST prediction for individual LASIK cases and minimize the risk of ectasia.
authors.affiliation: London Vision Clinic, 8 Devonshire Place, London W1G 6HP, United Kingdom. dzr@londonvisionclinic.com
authors.forename: Dan Z
authors.initials: DZ
authors.lastname: Reinstein
authors.forename: Sabong
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Srivannaboon
authors.forename: Timothy J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Archer
authors.forename: Ronald H
authors.initials: RH
authors.lastname: Silverman
authors.forename: Hugo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Sutton
authors.forename: D Jackson
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Coleman
mesh_terms: D003316:Corneal Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003319:Corneal Stroma / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000473:pathology*; D003941:Diagnostic Techniques, Ophthalmological / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004108:Dilatation, Pathologic / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D020731:Keratomileusis, Laser In Situ; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013524:Surgical Flaps; D014463:Ultrasonography