title: Predicting clustered dental implant survival using frailty methods.
abstract: The purpose of this study was to predict future implant survival using information on risk factors and on the survival status of an individual's existing implant(s). We considered a retrospective cohort study with 677 individuals having 2349 implants placed. We proposed to predict the survival probabilities using the Cox proportional hazards frailty model, with three important risk factors: smoking status, timing of placement, and implant staging. For a non-smoking individual with 2 implants placed, an immediate implant and in one stage, the marginal probability that 1 implant would survive 12 months was 85.8% (95%CI: 77%, 91.7%), and the predicted joint probability of surviving for 12 months was 75.1% (95%CI: 62.1%, 84.7%). If 1 implant was placed earlier and had survived for 12 months, then the second implant had an 87.5% (95%CI: 80.3%, 92.4%) chance of surviving 12 months. Such conditional and joint predictions can assist in clinical decision-making for individuals.
authors.affiliation: Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard School of Dental Medicine, 55 Fruit Street, Warren 1201, Boston, MA 02114, USA. schuang@hsph.harvard.edu
authors.forename: S-K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Chuang
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Cai
mesh_terms: D016000:Cluster Analysis; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003758:Dental Implantation, Endosseous / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015921:Dental Implants / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D015921:Dental Implants