Why is the distribution of HTLV-I carriers geographically biased? An answer through a mathematical epidemic model.
Human T-cell leukemia virus type I (HTLV-I) is a retrovirus that causes adult T-cell leukemia, and the distribution of HTLV-I carriers is endemically biased, e.g. in Japan the density of carriers is high in Kyushu and Okinawa. In order to consider population dynamics over long times taking account of an increase and a decrease of a population we propose a continuous-time HTLV-I model. The model describes population dynamics of carrier numbers and that of carrier proportions, and theoretical results about an increase and a decrease of carriers are obtained. The present approach derives an explanation of the biased distribution of carriers in Japan.
Eshima
Nobuoki
N
Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University, Oita 879-5593, Japan. eshima@med.oita-u.ac.jp
Tabata
Minoru
M
Okada
Tadashige
T
D000328:Adult; D000465:Algorithms; D001723:Birth Rate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography; D015490:HTLV-I Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D009026:Mortality; D011157:Population Dynamics