Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment.
Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.
Goswami
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Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Doctor Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India. goswami@tropmet.res.in
Venugopal
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V
Sengupta
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Madhusoodanan
M S
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Xavier
Prince K
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