title: Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment.
abstract: Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.
authors.affiliation: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Doctor Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India. goswami@tropmet.res.in
authors.forename: B N
authors.initials: BN
authors.lastname: Goswami
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Venugopal
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Sengupta
authors.forename: M S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Madhusoodanan
authors.forename: Prince K
authors.initials: PK
authors.lastname: Xavier