Different actuarial risk measures produce different risk rankings for sexual offenders.
Percentile ranks were computed for N=262 sex offenders using each of 5 actuarial risk instruments commonly used with adult sex offenders (RRASOR, Static-99, VRAG, SORAG, and MnSOST-R). Mean differences between percentile ranks obtained by different actuarial measures were found to vary inversely with the correlation between the actuarial scores. Following studies of factor analyses of actuarial items, we argue that the discrepancies among actuarial instruments can be substantially accounted for by the way in which the factor Antisocial Behavior and various factors reflecting sexual deviance are represented among the items contained in each instrument. In the discussion, we provide guidance to clinicians in resolving discrepancies between instruments and we discuss implications for future developments in sex offender risk assessment.
Barbaree
Howard E
HE
Law and Mental Health Program, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, 1001 Queen Street West, Toronto, M6J 1H4, Canada. howard_barbaree@camh.net
Langton
Calvin M
CM
Peacock
Edward J
EJ
D000206:Actuarial Analysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002650:Child Abuse, Sexual / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009864:Ontario / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology; D011581:Psychological Tests / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012372:ROC Curve; D011902:Rape / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012107:Research Design; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012742:Sex Offenses / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*