title: A health economic model to determine the long-term costs and clinical outcomes of raising low HDL-cholesterol in the prevention of coronary heart disease.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to describe a health economic model developed to project lifetime clinical and cost outcomes of lipid-modifying interventions in patients not reaching target lipid levels and to assess the validity of the model.
  
  
  METHODS
  The internet-based, computer simulation model is made up of two decision analytic sub-models, the first utilizing Monte Carlo simulation, and the second applying Markov modeling techniques. Monte Carlo simulation generates a baseline cohort for long-term simulation by assigning an individual lipid profile to each patient, and applying the treatment effects of interventions under investigation. The Markov model then estimates the long-term clinical (coronary heart disease events, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life expectancy) and cost outcomes up to a lifetime horizon, based on risk equations from the Framingham study. Internal and external validation analyses were performed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The results of the model validation analyses, plotted against corresponding real-life values from Framingham, 4S, AFCAPS/TexCAPS, and a meta-analysis by Gordon et al., showed that the majority of values were close to the y = x line, which indicates a perfect fit. The R2 value was 0.9575 and the gradient of the regression line was 0.9329, both very close to the perfect fit (= 1).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Validation analyses of the computer simulation model suggest the model is able to recreate the outcomes from published clinical studies and would be a valuable tool for the evaluation of new and existing therapy options for patients with persistent dyslipidemia.
authors.affiliation: Center for Outcomes Research, A Unit of IMS, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Roze
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Liens
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Palmer
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Berger
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Tucker
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Renaudin
mesh_terms: D008076:Cholesterol, HDL / Q000097:blood*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000517:prevention & control*; D050171:Dyslipidemias / Q000188:drug therapy*; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D019161:Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D018803:Models, Economic
chemical_list: D008076:Cholesterol, HDL; D019161:Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors