Continuing declines in cancer mortality in the European Union.
BACKGROUND
From 1988 to 1997 age-standardised total cancer mortality rates in the European Union (EU) fell by around 9% in both sexes. Available cancer mortality data in Europe up to 2002 allow a first check of the forecast of further declines in cancer mortality.


METHODS
We considered trends in age-standardised mortality from major cancer sites in the EU during the period 1980-2002.


RESULTS
For men, total cancer mortality, after a peak of 191.1/100,000 in 1987 declined to 177.8 in 1997 (-7%), and to 166.5 in 2002. Corresponding figures for females were 107.9/100,000, 100.5 and 95.2, corresponding to falls of 7% from 1987 to 1997, and to 5% from 1997 to 2002. Over the last 5 years, lung cancer declined by 1.9% per year in men, to reach 44.4/100,000, but increased by 1.7% in women, to reach 11.4. In 2002, for the first year, lung cancer mortality in women was higher than that for intestinal cancer (11.1/100,000), and lung cancer became the second site of cancer deaths in women after breast (17.9/100,000). From 1997 to 2002, appreciable declines were observed in mortality from intestinal cancer in men (-1.6% per year, to reach 18.8/100,000), and in women (-2.5%), as well as for breast (-1.7% per year) and prostate cancer (-1.4%).


CONCLUSIONS
Despite the persisting rises in female lung cancer, the recent trends in cancer mortality in the EU are encouraging and indicate that an 11% reduction in total cancer mortality from 2000 to 2015 is realistic and possible.
Levi
F
F
Cancer Epidemiology Unit and Cancer Registries of Vaud and Neuchâtel, Institut Universitaire de Médecine Sociale et Préventive, CHUV-Falaises 1, 1011 Lausanne, Switzerland. fabio.levi@chuv.ch
Lucchini
F
F
Negri
E
E
La Vecchia
C
C
D017677:Age Distribution; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005062:European Union / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007414:Intestinal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013997:Time Factors