title: The clinical utility of measured kyphosis as a predictor of the presence of vertebral deformities.
abstract: Meaured spinal kyphosis, as a predictor of prevalent and incident vertebral deformity, was examined in older women (>70 years) and found to not have sufficient sensitivity or specificity to justify its use as a predictor of present or future vertebral deformity risk.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Kyphosis may be attributable to vertebral deformity and was investigated as a clinical tool for predicting the presence and future risk of vertebral deformity.
  
  
  METHODS
  Kyphosis was measured in 434 women aged 70 years or older and the kyphosis index (KI) calculated. Prevalent and incident vertebral deformities were assessed by morphometric X-ray absorptiometry (MXA). The predictive value of KI was examined.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Severity of kyphosis was categorised by tertile of KI; 65% of anterior thoracic deformities occurred in the 33% of subjects in the highest (most kyphotic) tertile. Using this tertile as a predictor of anterior thoracic deformity, the probability for a positive test rose from 14% for the whole population to 28% and for a negative test the probability fell to 8%. For any spinal deformity the highest tertile of KI increased the probability of a positive test from 34% to 42% and reduced the probability for a negative test to 30%. The incidence of new deformities was 6% over 4 years; a high KI tertile did not increase the probability of any vertebral deformity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Severe kyphosis does not increase the probability of detection of a prevalent or incident spinal deformity sufficiently to make it a useful method of selecting patients for further evaluation of spinal deformity.
authors.affiliation: School of Medicine and Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia. rlprince@cyllene.uwa.edu.au
authors.forename: R L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Prince
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Devine
authors.forename: I M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Dick
mesh_terms: D015502:Absorptiometry, Photon; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007738:Kyphosis / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D008159:Lumbar Vertebrae; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013131:Spine / Q000002:abnormalities*; D013904:Thoracic Vertebrae; D014904:Western Australia / Q000453:epidemiology