Development and validation of stroke risk equation for Hong Kong Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes: the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry.
OBJECTIVE
We sought to develop stroke risk equations for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes in Hong Kong.


METHODS
A total of 7,209 Hong Kong Chinese type 2 diabetic patients without a history of stroke at baseline were analyzed. The data were randomly and evenly divided into the training subsample and the test subsample. In the training subsample, stepwise Cox models were used to develop the risk equation. Validation of the U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) stroke risk engine and the current stroke equation was performed in the test dataset. The life-table method was used to check calibration, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) was used to check discrimination.


RESULTS
A total of 372 patients developed incident stroke during a median of 5.37 years (interquartile range 2.88-7.78) of follow-up. Age, A1C, spot urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), and history of coronary heart disease (CHD) were independent predictors. The performance of the UKPDS stroke engine was suboptimal in our cohort. The newly developed risk equation defined by these four predictors had adequate performance in the test subsample. The predicted stroke-free probability by the current equation was within the 95% CI of the observed probability. The aROC was 0.77 for predicting stroke within 5 years. The risk score was computed as follows: 0.0634 x age (years) + 0.0897 x A1C + 0.5314 x log(10) (ACR) (mg/mmol) + 0.5636 x history of CHD (1 if yes). The 5-year stroke probability can be calculated by: 1 - 0.9707(EXP (Risk Score - 4.5674)).


CONCLUSIONS
Although the risk equation performed reasonably well in Chinese type 2 diabetic patients, external validation is required in other populations.
Yang
Xilin
X
Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, NT, Hong Kong, China.
So
Wing-Yee
WY
Kong
Alice P S
AP
Ho
Chung-Shun
CS
Lam
Christopher W K
CW
Stevens
Richard J
RJ
Lyu
Ramon R
RR
Yin
Donald D
DD
Cockram
Clive S
CS
Tong
Peter C Y
PC
Wong
Vivian
V
Chan
Juliana C N
JC
D044466:Asian People; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000453:epidemiology; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications*; D003925:Diabetic Angiopathies / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006723:Hong Kong / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D018579:Patient Selection; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012042:Registries; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013997:Time Factors