title: Rift Valley fever in West Africa: the role of space in endemicity.
abstract: Rift Valley fever is an endemic vector-borne disease in West Africa, which mainly affects domestic ruminants and occasionally humans. The aetiological mechanisms of its endemicity remain under debate. We used a simple spatially explicit model to assess the possibility of endemicity without wild animals providing a permanent virus reservoir. Our model takes into account the vertical transmission in some mosquito species, the rainfall-driven emergence of their eggs and local and distant contacts because of herd migration. Endemicity without such a permanent virus reservoir would be impossible in a single site except when there is a strictly periodic rainfall pattern; but it would be possible when there are herd movements and sufficient inter-site variability in rainfall, which drives mosquito emergence.
authors.affiliation: LOCEAN, Université P&M Curie, Paris, France. favier@isem-univ-montp2.fr
authors.forename: Charly
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Favier
authors.forename: Karine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Chalvet-Monfray
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Sabatier
authors.forename: Renaud
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lancelot
authors.forename: Didier
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fontenille
authors.forename: Marc A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Dubois
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology; D000354:Africa, Western / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D006801:Humans; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical; D007303:Insect Vectors; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011891:Rain; D012295:Rift Valley Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology