title: Prediction of one-hour running performance using constant duration tests.
abstract: Critical velocity (CV) represents, theoretically, the highest velocity that can be sustained without fatigue. The aim of this study was to compare CV computed from 5 mathematical models in order to determine which CV estimate is better correlated with 1-hour performance and which model provides the most accurate prediction of performance. Twelve trained middle- and long-distance male runners (29 +/- 5 years) performed 3 randomly ordered constant duration tests (6, 9, and 12 minutes), a maximal running velocity test for the estimation of CV, and a 1-hour track test (actual performance). Two linear, 2 nonlinear, and 1 exponential mathematical models were used to estimate CV and to predict the highest velocity that could be sustained during 1 hour (predicted performance). Although all CV estimates were correlated with performance (0.80 < r < 0.93, p < 0.01), it appeared that CV estimated from the exponential model was more closely associated with performance than all other models (r = 0.93; p < 0.01). Analysis of the bias +/- 95% interval of confidence between actual and predicted performance revealed that none of the models provided an accurate prediction of the 1-hour performance velocity. In conclusion, the estimation of CV allows us to rank middle- and long-distance runners with regard to their ability to perform well in long-distance running. However, no models provide an accurate prediction of performance that could be used as a reference for coaches or athletes.
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Etudes de la Motricité Humaine, Faculté des Sciences du Sport, Université, Ronchin, France. fxgamelin@hotmail.com
authors.forename: François Xavier
authors.initials: FX
authors.lastname: Gamelin
authors.forename: Jéré My
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Coquart
authors.forename: Nicolas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ferrari
authors.forename: Hubert
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Vodougnon
authors.forename: Régis
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Matran
authors.forename: Luc
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Leger
authors.forename: Laurent
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bosquet
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001696:Biomechanical Phenomena; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010807:Physical Endurance / Q000502:physiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012420:Running / Q000502:physiology*