title: Prediction of pathological stage is inaccurate in men with PSA values above 20 ng/mL.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  We hypothesized that either very low (0-2.5 ng/mL) or very high (>20 ng/mL) PSA values may limit the accuracy of pathological stage predictions. To test this hypothesis, we examined 5193 consecutive patients subjected to radical prostatectomy (RP) for localized prostate cancer (PCa).
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients were divided into three cohorts according to their pre-treatment PSA value: </=2.5 (n=331), 2.51-20 (n=4545) and >20 ng/mL (n=317). Subsequently in each cohort, the ability of PSA, clinical stage and biopsy Gleason sum was tested in multivariable logistic regression models predicting three separate endpoints: extracapsular extension (ECE), seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) and lymph node invasion (LNI). Predictive accuracy represented the performance benchmark. All models were adjusted for year of surgery and subjected to 200 bootstrap resamples to reduce overfit bias.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For PSA </=2.5 ng/mL, predictive accuracy was 76.7%, 72.3% and 82.8% for respectively ECE, SVI and LNI. For PSA 2.51-20 ng/mL, the predictive accuracy for the same endpoints was 67.8%, 77.4% and 81.6%. Finally, for PSA >20 ng/mL, predictive accuracy was 63.6%, 63.7% and 70.6%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The ability to predict pathological stage in patients with PSA values in excess of 20 ng/mL significantly decreased, compared to patients with lower PSA values. Therefore, accurate staging of these patients may require alternative markers or staging schemes.
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gallina
authors.forename: Claudio
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Jeldres
authors.forename: Felix K-H
authors.initials: FK
authors.lastname: Chun
authors.forename: Shahrokh F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Shariat
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Briganti
authors.forename: Jochen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Walz
authors.forename: Claus G
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Roehrborn
authors.forename: Fred
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Saad
authors.forename: Hartwig
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Huland
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Graefen
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Montorsi
authors.forename: Pierre I
authors.initials: PI
authors.lastname: Karakiewicz
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor / Q000097:blood; D001706:Biopsy; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009367:Neoplasm Staging / Q000379:methods; D011379:Prognosis; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood / Q000473:pathology*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies
chemical_list: D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen