[Cervix uteri cancer in Poland--epidemiological opening balance and perspectives].
Cancer is one of the main causes of death among young and middle-aged females. In case of some cancer sites there is a possibility of undertaking an intervention, which would diminish the risk of death--to this group belongs first of all malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri. The date of beginning first cervix uteri cancer screening in Poland is approaching, therefore presenting epidemiological opening balance and possible scenarios of changes it worthwhile. This work uses data on morbidity and mortality due to malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri cancer in Polish population. Time trends analysis was based on so-called "breakpoint" (joinpoint analysis). Cervix uteri cancer mortality trend is characterized by two breakpoints (1971 and 1993). In the period of 1963-1970 there was an increase of mortality and then after the trend reversed: percentage decline was estimated at the level of 0.8% yearly in 1971-1992 and 2.4% yearly in 1993-2002. Hypothetical scenarios of changes in cervix uteri cancer mortality show, that lack of intervention will cause mortality among Polish females at the level recorded in Finland 25 years ago. Optimistic variant would allow on diminishing mortality in Poland down to the level observed currently in Finland, in around 30 years. Implementing preventive cervix uteri cancer screening is currently the most urgent challenge of public health. If the preventive screening program will still be in the phase of plans and projects, then in 30 years time Poland will be in the point which Finland reached in the end of 1970s, and our civilizing underdevelopment will reach half a century.
Didkowska
Joanna
J
Zakład Epidemiologii i Prewencji Nowotworów, Centrum Onkologii-Instytut im. Marii Skłodowskiej-Curie, Warszawa. canepid@coi.waw.pl
Wojciechowska
Urszula
U
Zatoński
Witold
W
D002423:Cause of Death / Q000639:trends; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008499:Medical Records / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011044:Poland / Q000453:epidemiology; D011320:Primary Health Care / Q000458:organization & administration; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D002578:Uterine Cervical Dysplasia / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality* / Q000517:prevention & control; D016387:Women's Health