title: [A possible scenario of pandemic influenza in Italy].
abstract: An influenza pandemic is expected to occur and will require timely countermeasures. Based on analysis of past influenza epidemics, a deterministic model was developed to estimate the expected number of cases (over 12 million), medical consultations (over 5 million), hospital admissions (over 220,000) and deaths (over 43,000) in the absence of public health interventions. The adoption of available measures would reduce the number of cases by about 22%, hospitalizations by 20%, and deaths by 28%.
authors.affiliation: Ministero della Salute - Direzione Generale della Prevenzione Sanitaria.
authors.forename: Donato
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Greco
authors.forename: Elvira
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Rizzuto
authors.forename: Daniele
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Paramatti
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000628:therapy; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D012307:Risk Factors; D014611:Vaccination