title: Predictive factors for incident musculoskeletal disorders in an in-plant surveillance program.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  A surveillance program for upper-limb work-related musculoskeletal disorders (UWMSD) based on assessment of health and risk factors was implemented between 1996 and 2000 in a large shoe factory with overall high levels for biomechanical exposure. The study aimed to identify workers with an increased risk of UWMSD incidence.
  
  
  METHODS
  In 1996, 1997 and 2000, 166 workers filled out a questionnaire and underwent a standardized physical examination. Factors from the 1996 questionnaire (general, personal and occupational factors) associated with UWMSD incidence in 1997 were selected. The predictive role of these variables was studied with a logistic model, taking into account also gender and age. The performance of a risk score based on this model was studied in 2000, using the Wilcoxon test and ROC curves.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In 1997, 28 incident cases of UWMSD were observed (N = 107, 26.2%). Work pace and prior history of UWMSD were the only factors significantly associated with UWMSD incidence in 1997 (respectively 33% versus 13%, P = 0.02 and 58% versus 22%, P = 0.01). Psychological distress (36% versus 21%, P = 0.10), physical fatigue (35% versus 22%, P = 0.14), repetitiveness (30% versus 18%, P = 0.17) and task precision (33% versus 21%, P = 0.16) were also included in the logistic model for 1997 UWMSD incidence. Controlling for these variables, prior history of UWMSD remained associated with incidence in 1997 (OR = 5.5, 95% CI = 1.4-21.8). In the period from 1997 to 2000, 24 incident cases were observed (N = 102, 23.5%). The risk score, based on variables from the 1997 model, was significantly higher for incident cases (median = 6 in incident cases versus 4.5 for healthy subjects, P = 0.02). ROC curves indicated that the highest agreement reached 67% for sensitivity and 59% for specificity. Among subjects who did not change their task (N = 71, 18 incident cases), performance reached 66% for specificity with the same sensitivity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These results suggest that surveillance programs of UWMSD at a company level are possible even with overall high levels for biomechanical exposure and should take into account occupational and personal factors, including prior history of UWMSD.
authors.affiliation: INSERM, U687 Saint-Maurice, France. alexis.descatha@rpc.aphp.fr
authors.forename: Alexis
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Descatha
authors.forename: Yves
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Roquelaure
authors.forename: Bradley
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Evanoff
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mariel
authors.forename: Annette
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Leclerc
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001132:Arm; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007221:Industry; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009140:Musculoskeletal Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D009784:Occupational Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016273:Occupational Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors; D012775:Shoes