title: Predictive value of 6-month decline in ADAS-cog for survival without severe Alzheimer's disease.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the predictive value of the 6-month evolution of the ADAS-cog score in initially mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients on the risk of death or severe dementia (MMSE <10) within 2 years.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cognition was assessed every 6 months using the ADAS-cog scale in the Real.fr study, a cohort of AD patients. Six classes of ADAS-cog evolution were distinguished, from the severest deterioration (decline >or=7 points) to the greatest cognitive improvement (gain >or=4 points).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among 536 AD patients, 53 (9.9%) had a 6-month decline of 7 points or more. This group with the severest deterioration was significantly associated with the risk of severe dementia or death at 2 years (relative risk, RR = 3.8, 95% confidence interval, CI = 2.1-6.8), even after adjustment for baseline MMSE, disability and ADAS-cog score (RR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.4-5.0). In addition, subjects with a decline by at least 4 points were also at greater risk of severe dementia.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  These results confirm the value of the ADAS-cog scale as a judgement criterion in clinical trials since it is a good surrogate marker of long-term prognosis. The proportion of fast decliners on the ADAS-cog could be a helpful judgement criterion for future trials in AD.
authors.affiliation: INSERM U593, Université de Bordeaux-2, Bordeaux, France. Catherine.Helmer@isped.u-bordeaux2.fr
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Helmer
authors.forename: Sandrine
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Andrieu
authors.forename: Karine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Pérès
authors.forename: Jean-Marc
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Orgogozo
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Vellas
authors.forename: Jean-François
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Dartigues
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000401:mortality / Q000523:psychology*; D003071:Cognition; D003072:Cognition Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D009483:Neuropsychological Tests; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index