title: Modelling of municipal mortality due to haematological neoplasias in Spain.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To study the geographical pattern of mortality caused by haematological tumours in Spain at the municipal level using three Bayesian models and to compare their goodness of fit.
  
  
  METHODS
  The fitted Bayesian hierarchical models were: (1) the Besag York and Molliè (BYM) model; (2) a model based on zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution, which allowed a large number of event-free areas; and (3) a mixture of distributions that enabled discontinuities (jumps in the pattern) to be modelled. The three models allow smoothed relative risk maps to be obtained for the all countries. The goodness of fit was evaluated using the deviance information criteria.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The three models yielded similar results. The ZIP model plotted a pattern almost identical with the BYM model. The goodness-of-fit criteria indicate that the mixture model is the one that best fits our data. Haematological tumours display a geographical pattern that could be partly explained by environmental determinants, as many of the highest-risk towns are located in heavily industrialised areas.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The choice of one or another model has scant practical consequences. The pattern of distribution supports the hypothesis that differences in lifestyles, air/industrial pollution and migratory phenomena may determine the pattern of urban mortality due to these tumours.
authors.affiliation: Environmental and Cancer Epidemiology Unit, National Centre for Epidemiology, Carlos III Institute of Health, C/Sinesio Delgado, 6, 28029 Madrid, Spain. rramis@isciii.es
authors.forename: Rebeca
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ramis Prieto
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: García-Pérez
authors.forename: Marina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pollán
authors.forename: Nuria
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Aragonés
authors.forename: Beatriz
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Pérez-Gómez
authors.forename: Gonzalo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: López-Abente
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D019337:Hematologic Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D007221:Industry; D008019:Life Style; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012306:Risk; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D019371:Topography, Medical; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*