title: Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example.
abstract: We propose a new stochastic framework for analysing the dynamics of the immunity response of wildlife hosts against a disease-causing agent. Our study is motivated by the need to analyse the monitoring time-series data covering the period from 1975 to 1995 on bacteriological and serological tests-samples from great gerbils being the main host of Yersinia pestis in Kazakhstan. Based on a four-state continuous-time Markov chain, we derive a generalized nonlinear mixed-effect model for analysing the serological test data. The immune response of a host involves the production of antibodies in response to an antigen. Our analysis shows that great gerbils recovered from a plague infection are more likely to keep their antibodies to plague and survive throughout the summer-to-winter season than throughout the winter-to-summer season. Provided the seasonal mortality rates are similar (which seems to be the case based on a mortality analysis with abundance data), our finding indicates that the immune function of the sampled great gerbils is seasonal.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Seoul National University, Sillim-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, South Korea.
authors.forename: Siyun
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Park
authors.forename: Kung-Sik
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Chan
authors.forename: Hildegunn
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Viljugrein
authors.forename: Larissa
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Nekrassova
authors.forename: Bakhtiyar
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Suleimenov
authors.forename: Vladimir S
authors.initials: VS
authors.lastname: Ageyev
authors.forename: Nikolay L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Klassovskiy
authors.forename: Sergey B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Pole
authors.forename: Nils
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Chr Stenseth
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001323:Autoantibodies / Q000276:immunology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005849:Gerbillinae / Q000276:immunology*; D007113:Immunity, Innate / Q000276:immunology; D007623:Kazakhstan; D018448:Models, Immunological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010930:Plague / Q000276:immunology* / Q000662:veterinary*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012621:Seasons; D015996:Survival Rate; D015010:Yersinia pestis / Q000276:immunology
chemical_list: D001323:Autoantibodies