title: Incidence of Type 2 diabetes in England and its association with baseline impaired fasting glucose: the Ely study 1990-2000.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the incidence of Type 2 diabetes and to examine the effect of different cut-points for impaired fasting glucose (IFG) on diabetes incidence.
  
  
  METHODS
  Population-based longitudinal study (1990-2000) with clinical, anthropometric and biochemical measurements, including an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), in 1040 non-diabetic adults aged 40-69 years at baseline. Baseline glucose status was defined as normoglycaemia < 5.6, IFG-lower 5.6-6.0 and IFG-original 6.1-6.9 mmol/l. The all-IFG group included fasting glucose values of 5.6-6.9 mmol/l.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 10-year cumulative incidence of diabetes was 7.3 per 1000 person-years. Diabetes incidence was 2.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2, 4.8], 6.2 (4.0, 9.8) and 17.5 (12.5, 24.5) per 1000 person-years in those with normoglycaemia, IFG-lower and IFG-original, respectively. Compared with normoglycaemia, the age/sex-adjusted risk [hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CI] for incident diabetes was greatest in the IFG-original category (HR 6.9; 3.1, 15.2) and increased to a lesser degree in the IFG-lower (HR 2.5; 1.1, 5.7) and all-IFG categories (HR 4.1; 1.9, 8.7). When adjusted for confounding factors, the magnitude and direction of associations persisted, with HR 1.9, 4.4 and 2.9, for the categories IFG-lower, IFG-original and all-IFG, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Diabetes incidence is more strongly related to IFG defined as fasting glucose between 6.1 and 6.9 mmol/l than to the lower category of 5.6-6.0 mmol/l, or entire range of 5.6-6.9 mmol/l. Future studies should examine the association of IFG with cardiovascular outcomes, but for diabetes risk our study supports the use of the IFG cut-point at 6.1 mmol/l.
authors.affiliation: Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit, Elsie Widdowson Laboratories, Cambridge, UK. nita.forouhi@mrc-epid.cam.ac.uk
authors.forename: N G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Forouhi
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Luan
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hennings
authors.forename: N J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Wareham
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test; D006801:Humans; D007003:Hypoglycemia / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015994:Incidence; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors