title: Prognostic model for tooth survival in patients treated for periodontitis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In patients with periodontitis, a quantitative prognostic assessment is needed in order to make evidence-based decisions about retaining teeth or extracting and replacing them with a dental prosthesis.
  
  
  METHODS
  One hundred and ninety eight patients receiving active periodontal treatment in 1989 or 1990 and complying with supportive periodontal therapy (SPT) over an average of 11.8+/-2.3 years were included in the study. A generalized linear model was established and fitted via generalized estimating equations to identify predictors for tooth loss during SPT.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of the 4559 teeth present at baseline, 166 (3.6%) were extracted during active treatment and 249 (5.5%) during SPT. Baseline findings of diabetes mellitus (OR=4.17), reduced alveolar bone levels (OR=1.04 for each 1% increment), increased tooth mobility (III versus 0: OR=5.52), multiple roots (OR=1.82), and non-vital pulp (OR=2.24) were significant (p<0.05) predictors for tooth loss during SPT. Based on these parameters, a prognostic model was constructed that provides estimates of tooth survival probability when periodontal therapy is rendered.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Using a multivariate approach, a prognostic model was developed that may be of value for clinical decision making.
authors.affiliation: Department of Periodontology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany. clovisfaggion@yahoo.com
authors.forename: Clóvis M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Faggion
authors.forename: Gregor
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Petersilka
authors.forename: Dieter E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Lange
authors.forename: Joachim
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gerss
authors.forename: Thomas F
authors.initials: TF
authors.lastname: Flemmig
mesh_terms: D000539:Alveolar Process / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000473:pathology; D048909:Diabetes Complications; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010518:Periodontitis / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000628:therapy*; D011379:Prognosis; D011859:Radiography; D014081:Tooth Extraction / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016388:Tooth Loss / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D019553:Tooth, Nonvital / Q000150:complications / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging