title: Multi-institutional reciprocal validation study of computed tomography predictors of suboptimal primary cytoreduction in patients with advanced ovarian cancer.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Identify features on preoperative computed tomography (CT) scans to predict suboptimal primary cytoreduction in patients treated for advanced ovarian cancer in institution A. Reciprocally cross validate the predictors identified with those from two previously published cohorts from institutions B and C.
  
  
  METHODS
  Preoperative CT scans from patients with stage III/IV epithelial ovarian cancer who underwent primary cytoreduction in institution A between 1999 and 2005 were retrospectively reviewed by radiologists blinded to surgical outcome. Fourteen criteria were assessed. Crossvalidation was performed by applying predictive model A to the patients from cohorts B and C, and reciprocally applying predictive models B and C to cohort A.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Sixty-five patients from institution A were included. The rate of optimal cytoreduction ( 1 cm residual disease) was 78%. Diaphragm disease and large bowel mesentery implants were the only CT predictors of suboptimal cytoreduction on univariate (P < .02) and multivariate analysis (P < .02). In combination (model A), these predictors had a sensitivity of 79%, a specificity of 75%, and an accuracy of 77% for suboptimal cytoreduction. When model A was applied to cohorts B and C, accuracy rates dropped to 34% and 64%, respectively. Reciprocally, models B and C had accuracy rates of 93% and 79% in their original cohorts, which fell to 74% and 48% in cohort A.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The high accuracy rates of CT predictors of suboptimal cytoreduction in the original cohorts could not be confirmed in the cross validation. Preoperative CT predictors should be used with caution when deciding between surgical cytoreduction and neoadjuvant chemotherapy.
authors.affiliation: University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
authors.forename: Allison E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Axtell
authors.forename: Margaret H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Robert E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Bristow
authors.forename: Sean C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Dowdy
authors.forename: William A
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Cliby
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Raman
authors.forename: John P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Weaver
authors.forename: Mojan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gabbay
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ngo
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lentz
authors.forename: Ilana
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Cass
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Beth Y
authors.initials: BY
authors.lastname: Karlan
authors.forename: Christine H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Holschneider
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D018365:Neoplasm, Residual; D010051:Ovarian Neoplasms / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed; D016896:Treatment Outcome