title: Projected prevalence of US adults with self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis, 2005 to 2050.
abstract: Using population-based survey data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS), we estimated the population prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis in the US from 2005 to 2050. Projected arthritis-prevalence data were estimated in 5-year increments along sex- and age-specific categories by multiplying the 2003 BRFSS arthritis prevalence data by the sex-stratified US Census projections. During this 45-year period, we estimate that the total number of US adults aged 20 years or older with arthritis will increase from 60 million to 96 million, a 1.6-fold increase. The increase is projected to be greater in those aged 65 years or older (a 2.3-fold increase) than for those aged 20 to 65 (a 1.3-fold increase). Given increases in the prevalence of known arthritis risk factors (e.g., obesity, Hispanic origin) our projections might underestimate the prevalence of arthritis in the coming years.
authors.affiliation: Division of Rheumatology, Johns Hopkins Bayview Medical Center, 5501 Hopkins Bayview Circle, Room 1B.17, Baltimore, MD 21224, USA. kfontai1@jhmi.edu
authors.forename: Kevin R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Fontaine
authors.forename: Steffany
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Haaz
authors.forename: Moonseong
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Heo
mesh_terms: D001168:Arthritis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015995:Prevalence; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology