title: Damage prognosis: the future of structural health monitoring.
abstract: This paper concludes the theme issue on structural health monitoring (SHM) by discussing the concept of damage prognosis (DP). DP attempts to forecast system performance by assessing the current damage state of the system (i.e. SHM), estimating the future loading environments for that system, and predicting through simulation and past experience the remaining useful life of the system. The successful development of a DP capability will require the further development and integration of many technology areas including both measurement/processing/telemetry hardware and a variety of deterministic and probabilistic predictive modelling capabilities, as well as the ability to quantify the uncertainty in these predictions. The multidisciplinary and challenging nature of the DP problem, its current embryonic state of development, and its tremendous potential for life-safety and economic benefits qualify DP as a 'grand challenge' problem for engineers in the twenty-first century.
authors.affiliation: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA. farrar@lanl.gov
authors.forename: Charles R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Farrar
authors.forename: Nick A J
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Lieven
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003252:Construction Materials / Q000032:analysis*; D004738:Engineering / Q000295:instrumentation / Q000379:methods*; D004867:Equipment Design; D019544:Equipment Failure Analysis / Q000295:instrumentation / Q000379:methods*; D005160:Facility Design and Construction / Q000295:instrumentation / Q000379:methods*; D008283:Maintenance / Q000379:methods*; D008422:Materials Testing / Q000379:methods*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014159:Transducers; D014732:Vibration