Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example.
We propose a new stochastic framework for analysing the dynamics of the immunity response of wildlife hosts against a disease-causing agent. Our study is motivated by the need to analyse the monitoring time-series data covering the period from 1975 to 1995 on bacteriological and serological tests-samples from great gerbils being the main host of Yersinia pestis in Kazakhstan. Based on a four-state continuous-time Markov chain, we derive a generalized nonlinear mixed-effect model for analysing the serological test data. The immune response of a host involves the production of antibodies in response to an antigen. Our analysis shows that great gerbils recovered from a plague infection are more likely to keep their antibodies to plague and survive throughout the summer-to-winter season than throughout the winter-to-summer season. Provided the seasonal mortality rates are similar (which seems to be the case based on a mortality analysis with abundance data), our finding indicates that the immune function of the sampled great gerbils is seasonal.
Park
Siyun
S
Department of Statistics, Seoul National University, Sillim-dong, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, South Korea.
Chan
Kung-Sik
KS
Viljugrein
Hildegunn
H
Nekrassova
Larissa
L
Suleimenov
Bakhtiyar
B
Ageyev
Vladimir S
VS
Klassovskiy
Nikolay L
NL
Pole
Sergey B
SB
Chr Stenseth
Nils
N
D000818:Animals; D001323:Autoantibodies / Q000276:immunology; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005849:Gerbillinae / Q000276:immunology*; D007113:Immunity, Innate / Q000276:immunology; D007623:Kazakhstan; D018448:Models, Immunological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010930:Plague / Q000276:immunology* / Q000662:veterinary*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012621:Seasons; D015996:Survival Rate; D015010:Yersinia pestis / Q000276:immunology
D001323:Autoantibodies