title: Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague.
abstract: Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model using additional data from the same archives. Throughout the focus, population levels above the threshold were a necessary condition for an epizootic to occur. However, there were large numbers of occasions when an epizootic was not observed even though great gerbils were, and had been, abundant. We examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate was unfavourable, and (vi) a high proportion of gerbils were resistant. Of these, separate thresholds, fleas and climate received some support but accounted for few false positives and can be disregarded as serious omissions from the model. Small sample size and local extinction received strong support and can account for most of the false positives. Host resistance received no support here but should be subject to more direct experimental testing.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, B-2020 Antwerp, Belgium. s.a.davis@vet.uu.nl
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Davis
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Leirs
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Viljugrein
authors.forename: N Chr
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Stenseth
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: De Bruyn
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Klassovskiy
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Ageyev
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Begon
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D005189:False Positive Reactions; D005849:Gerbillinae; D007303:Insect Vectors; D007623:Kazakhstan; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010930:Plague / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D012376:Rodent Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D005423:Siphonaptera