title: Mortality predictions for esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer, Ireland, up to 2015.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  An analysis was undertaken to predict numbers of esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer deaths and their World age standardized mortality rates (WASMRs) per 100,000 person years (100,000 PY-1) in Ireland for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015.
  
  
  METHODS
  Linear and log-linear Poisson regression models were applied to 1950-2002 Irish cancer mortality data.
  
  
  RESULTS
  By 2015, esophageal cancer WASMR for males is expected to rise to 9.1 100,000 PY-1, but for females to fall to 2.3 100,000 PY-1. In women under 65 yr, the WASMR is expected to decline to 0.8 100,000 PY-1 but to increase to 3.6 100,000 PY-1 in men. The stomach cancer WASMR for males is predicted to decrease to 5.3 100,000 PY-1 and for females to 2.9 100,000 PY-1. In males under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to fall to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to 1.0 100,000 PY-1 in women. The male WASMR for pancreatic cancer is predicted to decrease to 5.9 100,000 PY-1 and to 4.7 100,000 PY-1 in women. In men under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to drop to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to fall in women to 1.2 100,000 PY-1.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Apart from male esophageal cancer, the findings would indicate that declines in Irish WASMRs for these three cancer types are expected to occur by 2015.
authors.affiliation: National Cancer Registry, Boreenmanna Road, Elm Court, Cork, Ireland.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: O'Lorcain
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Deady
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Comber
mesh_terms: D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007494:Ireland / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012042:Registries; D012727:Sex Characteristics; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D016019:Survival Analysis