Mortality predictions for esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer, Ireland, up to 2015.
OBJECTIVE
An analysis was undertaken to predict numbers of esophageal, stomach, and pancreatic cancer deaths and their World age standardized mortality rates (WASMRs) per 100,000 person years (100,000 PY-1) in Ireland for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015.


METHODS
Linear and log-linear Poisson regression models were applied to 1950-2002 Irish cancer mortality data.


RESULTS
By 2015, esophageal cancer WASMR for males is expected to rise to 9.1 100,000 PY-1, but for females to fall to 2.3 100,000 PY-1. In women under 65 yr, the WASMR is expected to decline to 0.8 100,000 PY-1 but to increase to 3.6 100,000 PY-1 in men. The stomach cancer WASMR for males is predicted to decrease to 5.3 100,000 PY-1 and for females to 2.9 100,000 PY-1. In males under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to fall to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to 1.0 100,000 PY-1 in women. The male WASMR for pancreatic cancer is predicted to decrease to 5.9 100,000 PY-1 and to 4.7 100,000 PY-1 in women. In men under 65 yr, the WASMR is predicted to drop to 1.7 100,000 PY-1 and to fall in women to 1.2 100,000 PY-1.


CONCLUSIONS
Apart from male esophageal cancer, the findings would indicate that declines in Irish WASMRs for these three cancer types are expected to occur by 2015.
O'Lorcain
P
P
National Cancer Registry, Boreenmanna Road, Elm Court, Cork, Ireland.
Deady
S
S
Comber
H
H
D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007494:Ireland / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012042:Registries; D012727:Sex Characteristics; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D016019:Survival Analysis