title: Simulated detection of syndromic classical swine fever on a Finnish pig-breeding farm.
abstract: Although Finland has not experienced a classical swine fever (CSF) epidemic since 1917, the concern about early detection is relevant. The time until detection of CSF on a pig-breeding farm was predicted by simulation, and earlier detection of CSF-infected farms was assessed. Eight to 12 weeks will pass before CSF is detected on a Finnish pig-breeding farm, which resembles detection of the index farm for actual CSF epidemics in Europe. Although notification of suspected CSF on the infected farm accelerates detection the most, interventions aimed at promoting investigations of the general health problem noticed on the farm, or a more comprehensive testing of samples currently arriving from pig farms to the investigating laboratory could shorten detection time by 3 weeks. Results are applicable for further simulation of an event of a CSF epidemic in Finland, and for studying contingency options to promote more rapid detection of infectious diseases of swine not found at present in the country.
authors.affiliation: Department of Risk Assessment, National Veterinary and Food Research Institute, Helsinki, Finland. saara.raulo@eela.fi
authors.forename: S M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Raulo
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Lyytikäinen
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D006691:Classical Swine Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D006692:Classical Swine Fever Virus / Q000472:pathogenicity; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000662:veterinary*; D005387:Finland / Q000453:epidemiology; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D013552:Swine