Modelling the SARS epidemic by a lattice-based Monte-Carlo simulation.
We have analyzed the SARS data and the effect of the control measure in HongKong, based on a spatial Monte-Carlo model (SEIR) with susceptibles, exposed(latent), infective, and recovered. The SARS data can be well fit by numerical simulations. The control measure is effective to decreasing the transmission by reducing the contact rate. The average value of the reproductive number is consistent with many of the previous models.
Fang
Haiping
H
Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 800-204, Shanghai 201800, China. fanghaiping@sinap.ac.cn.
Chen
Jixiu
J
Hu
Jun
J