title: Insight as a predictor of the outcome of first-episode nonaffective psychosis in a prospective cohort study in England.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the effect of insight on time to relapse and readmission and on social function and symptoms after following up a cohort of first-episodes of nonaffective psychosis for 18 months.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients with first episodes of DSM-IV schizophreniform disorder, schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, delusional disorder, and psychosis not otherwise specified (excluding primary substance-induced or organic psychoses), aged 16 to 65 years, were recruited over the 26 months from July 1996 to September 1998 from consecutive admissions to day-patient and inpatient units in England with a catchment area population of 2.3 million. They were interviewed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, Birchwood Insight Scale, and Social Functioning Scale at baseline and 18 months.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The hazard ratio for relapse, per unit increase in the insight score, was estimated in a Cox proportional hazards model to be 0.943 (95% CI = 0.892 to 0.996; p = .035). Those with the best insight scores had an estimated rate of relapse that was 39% of that of those with the worst scores (95% CI = 16% to 93%). Readmission was highly correlated with relapse, so poor insight also predicted readmission (hazard ratio 0.934; 95% CI = 0.876 to 0.996; p = .036). However, insight did not independently predict symptoms or social function after adjustment for other predictors of outcome.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Insight predicted both relapse and readmission. The details of the beliefs and assumptions determining outcome remain unclear, but intervening to alter them appears to be justified.
authors.affiliation: Division of Psychiatry, University of Manchester, Education & Research Centre, Wythenshawe Hospital, Manchester, United Kingdom. richard.drake@manchester.ac.uk
authors.forename: Richard J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Drake
authors.forename: Graham
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Dunn
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Tarrier
authors.forename: Richard P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Bentall
authors.forename: Gillian
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Haddock
authors.forename: Shôn W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Lewis
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004739:England; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010359:Patient Readmission; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011618:Psychotic Disorders / Q000523:psychology* / Q000628:therapy*; D012008:Recurrence; D012559:Schizophrenia / Q000628:therapy*; D012565:Schizophrenic Psychology; D012649:Self Concept; D012919:Social Behavior