A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth-disease: II. Model results and policy implications.
A dynamic optimization model was used to search for optimal strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the three-county region in the Central Valley of California. The model minimized total regional epidemic cost by choosing the levels of depopulation of diagnosed herds, preemptive depopulation, and vaccination. Impacts of limited carcass disposal capacity and vaccination were also examined, and the shadow value, the implicit value of each capacity, was estimated. The model found that to control FMD in the region, (1) preemptive depopulation was not optimal, (2) vaccination, if allowed, was optimal, reducing total cost by 3-7%, (3) increased vaccination capacity reduced total cost up to US$119 per dose, (4) increased carcass disposal capacity reduced total cost by US$9000-59,400 per head with and without vaccination, respectively, and (5) dairy operations should be given preferential attention in allocating limited control resources.
Kobayashi
Mimako
M
Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA. kobayash@primal.ucdavis.edu
Carpenter
Tim E
TE
Dickey
Bradley F
BF
Howitt
Richard E
RE
D000818:Animals; D002140:California; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D037901:Euthanasia, Animal; D005260:Female; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D015511:Goat Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D006041:Goats; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D011640:Public Policy; D012756:Sheep; D012757:Sheep Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D014611:Vaccination / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods / Q000662:veterinary*