title: Targeted social distancing design for pandemic influenza.
abstract: Targeted social distancing to mitigate pandemic influenza can be designed through simulation of influenza's spread within local community social contact networks. We demonstrate this design for a stylized community representative of a small town in the United States. The critical importance of children and teenagers in transmission of influenza is first identified and targeted. For influenza as infectious as 1957-58 Asian flu (=50% infected), closing schools and keeping children and teenagers at home reduced the attack rate by >90%. For more infectious strains, or transmission that is less focused on the young, adults and the work environment must also be targeted. Tailored to specific communities across the world, such design would yield local defenses against a highly virulent strain in the absence of vaccine and antiviral drugs.
authors.affiliation: National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87185-1138, USA. rjglass@sandia.gov
authors.forename: Robert J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Glass
authors.forename: Laura M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Glass
authors.forename: Walter E
authors.initials: WE
authors.lastname: Beyeler
authors.forename: H Jason
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Min
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D016544:Patient Simulation; D012929:Psychological Distance