title: Fifteen-year cumulative incidence of age-related macular degeneration: the Beaver Dam Eye Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To describe the 15-year cumulative incidence of signs of early and late age-related macular degeneration (AMD).
  
  
  METHODS
  Population-based cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  We included 3917 persons, 43 to 86 years of age at the time of a baseline examination in 1988 through 1990 and with information collected in follow-up in 1993 through 1995, and/or 1998 through 2000, and/or 2003 through 2005.
  
  
  METHODS
  Grading of stereoscopic fundus photographs using the Wisconsin Age-Related Maculopathy Grading System.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cumulative incidence of drusen type and size, pigmentary abnormalities, geographic atrophy, and exudative AMD accounting for competing risk of death.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 15-year cumulative incidence was 14.3% for early AMD (the presence of either soft indistinct drusen or the presence of pigmentary abnormalities together with any type of drusen) and 3.1% for late AMD (presence of exudative AMD or geographic atrophy). There was an increased incidence of AMD lesions with age (P<0.05). Individuals > or = 75 years of age at baseline had significantly (P<0.01) higher 15-year incidences of the following characteristics than people 43 to 54 years of age: larger drusen (125 mum in diameter, 24.1% vs 10.6%), soft indistinct drusen (18.7% vs 6.5%), retinal pigmentary abnormalities (20.2% vs 3.7%), exudative macular degeneration (4.4% vs 0.4%), and pure geographic atrophy (3.2% vs 0%). Controlling for age, compared with those with small numbers of only small hard drusen (1-2), those with large numbers of only hard drusen (> or =8) had an increased 15-year age-adjusted incidence of both soft indistinct drusen (16.3% vs 4.7%) and pigmentary abnormalities (10.6% vs 2.7%). Eyes with soft indistinct drusen or pigmentary abnormalities at baseline were more likely to develop late AMD at follow-up than eyes without these lesions (17.8% vs 1.2% and 12.9% vs 1.7%, respectively).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We document the long-term incidence of signs of AMD and a continuum from small hard drusen to late AMD in older persons in the population. The 15-year cumulative incidence of late AMD in people > or = 75 years of age (8%) indicates a public health problem of significant proportions because the United States population this age is expected to increase by 54% between 2005 and 2025.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin 53726-2336, USA. kleinr@epi.ophth.wisc.edu
authors.forename: Ronald
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Klein
authors.forename: Barbara E K
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Klein
authors.forename: Michael D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Knudtson
authors.forename: Stacy M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Meuer
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Swift
authors.forename: Ronald E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Gangnon
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008268:Macular Degeneration / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010857:Pigment Epithelium of Eye / Q000473:pathology; D015593:Retinal Drusen / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D014922:Wisconsin / Q000453:epidemiology