title: Phototherapy of the newborn: a predictive model for the outcome.
abstract: Jaundice in one of the most common problems of the newborn. In most cases, jaundice is considered a physiological transient situation, but sometimes it can lead to death or serious injuries for the survivors. For decades, phototherapy has been used as the main method for prevention and treatment of hyperbilirubinaemia of the newborn. This work aims at finding a predictive model for the decrement of blood bilirubin followed conventional phototherapy. Data from 90 patients were collected and used in the multiple regression method. A rigorous statistical analysis was done in order to guarantee a correct and valid model. The obtained model was able to explain 78% of the variation of the dependent variable We found that it is possible to predict the total sugar bilirubin of the patient under phototherapy by knowing its birth weight, bilirubin level at the beginning of treatment, duration of exposition, and irradiance. Besides, it is possible to infer the time necessary for a given decrement of bilirubin, under approximately constant irradiance.
authors.affiliation: Unidade Neonatal, Hospital Universitário, Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná, R. da Bandeira, 668 - 85812-270, Cascavel, Brazil (e-mail: nelsonosaku@yahoo.com.br).
authors.forename: Nelson
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ossamu Osaku
authors.forename: Heitor
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Silverio Lopes