title: The uncertain burden of Plasmodium falciparum epidemics in Africa.
abstract: Although the control of malaria epidemics has been a priority for the World Health Organization and other agencies for many years, surprisingly little is known about the public health burden of these epidemics. Here, we evaluate the available evidence of the morbidity and mortality impacts of individual epidemics in Africa and examine the problems associated with using these data to estimate the average annual burden of epidemics at national and continental scales. We argue that conventional approaches that are used to assess the burden of epidemics are inadequate, and outline the future steps that are required to produce estimates that are more accurate.
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK. jonathan.cox@lshtm.ac.uk
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Cox
authors.forename: Simon I
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Hay
authors.forename: Tarekegn A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Abeku
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Checchi
authors.forename: Robert W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Snow
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D016778:Malaria, Falciparum / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D010963:Plasmodium falciparum / Q000502:physiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment