Health spending projections through 2016: modest changes obscure part D's impact.
Growth in national health spending is projected to slow slightly from 6.9 percent in 2005 to 6.8 percent in 2006, marking the fourth consecutive year of a slowing trend. The health share of gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to hold steady in 2006 before resuming its historical upward trend, reaching 19.6 percent of GDP by 2016. Prescription drug spending growth is expected to accelerate to 6.5 percent in 2006. Medicare prescription drug coverage has dramatically changed the distribution of drug spending among payers, but the net effect on aggregate spending is anticipated to be small.
Poisal
John A
JA
National Health Statistics Group, Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Baltimore, Maryland, USA. DNHS@cms.hhs.gov
Truffer
Christopher
C
Smith
Sheila
S
Sisko
Andrea
A
Cowan
Cathy
C
Keehan
Sean
S
Dickensheets
Bridget
B
D014487:Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S.; D017046:Cost Savings; D005382:Financing, Personal / Q000639:trends; D005544:Forecasting; D018166:Health Care Reform / Q000191:economics*; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D007250:Inflation, Economic; D006278:Medicare / Q000639:trends; D011306:Prescription Fees / Q000639:trends; D011787:Quality of Health Care; D013221:State Health Plans; D014481:United States