title: Ten-year incidence of diabetes in older Australians: the Blue Mountains Eye Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the incidence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and increased risk associated with the metabolic syndrome, in a representative population-based sample of older Australians.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Blue Mountains Eye Study examined 3654 residents aged 49 + years (82.4% response rate) during 1992-1994, and re-examined 2335 (75.1% of survivors) during 1997-1999 and 1952 (75.6% of survivors) during 2002-2004; 2123 participants with normal blood glucose levels at baseline were considered at risk of developing incident diabetes.
  
  
  METHODS
  Incident diabetes (or IFG) was defined in participants at risk who were newly diagnosed by a physician during the follow-up or found to have a fasting blood glucose level >or= 7.0 mmol/L (or 5.6-6.9 mmol/L). Kaplan-Meier cumulative 10-year incidence was calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The overall 10-year incidence of diabetes and IFG was 9.3% and 15.8%, respectively. Participants with metabolic syndrome at baseline had a higher risk of incident diabetes than those without metabolic syndrome (29.2% v 8.6%). Baseline factors associated with incident diabetes were elevated fasting glucose level (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 4.5; 95% CI, 3.4-6.1 per mmol/L), obesity (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-2.8), diabetes family history (OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.5), current smoking (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.0-2.7) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol level < 1.0 mmol/L (OR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.5-3.8). Similar baseline factors were associated with incident IFG.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This population-based study provides data on the incidence of diabetes and IFG in an older, predominantly white population, and confirms that metabolic and lifestyle factors are major risk factors for diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Vision Research, Westmead Millennium Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW.
authors.forename: Sudha
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cugati
authors.forename: Jie Jin
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Elena
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Rochtchina
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Mitchell
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism*; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose