title: An improved saddlepoint approximation.
abstract: Given a set of third- or higher-order moments, not only is the saddlepoint approximation the only realistic 'family-free' technique available for constructing an associated probability distribution, but it is 'optimal' in the sense that it is based on the highly efficient numerical method of steepest descents. However, it suffers from the problem of not always yielding full support, and whilst [S. Wang, General saddlepoint approximations in the bootstrap, Prob. Stat. Lett. 27 (1992) 61.] neat scaling approach provides a solution to this hurdle, it leads to potentially inaccurate and aberrant results. We therefore propose several new ways of surmounting such difficulties, including: extending the inversion of the cumulant generating function to second-order; selecting an appropriate probability structure for higher-order cumulants (the standard moment closure procedure takes them to be zero); and, making subtle changes to the target cumulants and then optimising via the simplex algorithm.
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK.
authors.forename: Colin S
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Gillespie
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Renshaw
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D008433:Mathematics; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011336:Probability; D013269:Stochastic Processes