Prediction of outcome in adults with severe falciparum malaria: a new scoring system.
BACKGROUND
Mortality of falciparum malaria is related to the presence of severe complications. However, no scoring system is available to predict outcome of these patients. The aim of this paper was to devise a simple and reliable malaria prognosis score (MPS) to predict the outcome of adults with severe malaria.


METHODS
All slide-positive severe falciparum malaria patients admitted to Ispat General Hospital were studied. Eight clinical parameters that may potentially differentiate or influence the outcome were identified to predict recovery or death


RESULTS
Of 248 severe malaria cases, 35 died. There were 212 adults (34 deaths) and 36 children (one death). The malaria score for adults was (MSA) = 1(severe anaemia) + 2 (acute renal failure) + 3(Respiratory distress) +4 (cerebral malaria). The MSA ranges from 0 to 10. The mortality was 2% for MSA 0-2; 10% for MSA 3-4, 40% for MSA 5-6 and 90% for MSA 7 or more. The sensitivity is 89.9% and positive predictive value is 94.1% when 5 is taken as the cut off value.


CONCLUSIONS
MSA is a simple and sensitive predictor. It can be administered rapidly and repeatedly to prognosticate the outcome of severe malaria in adults. It can help the treating doctor to assess the patient as well as to communicate to the relatives of the patients about prognosis. The score needs revalidation in other geographical areas.
Mishra
Saroj K
SK
Department of Internal Medicine, Ispat General Hospital, F-139, Sector-19, Rourkela, 769 005, Orissa, India. sarojrkl@gmail.com
Panigrahi
Pinaki
P
Mishra
Rajalaxmi
R
Mohanty
Sanjib
S
D000328:Adult; D000962:Antimalarials / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D016778:Malaria, Falciparum / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011803:Quinine / Q000627:therapeutic use; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D016896:Treatment Outcome
D000962:Antimalarials; D011803:Quinine