title: Sustained measles elimination in Australia and priorities for long term maintenance.
abstract: We used the 2002 national serosurvey to evaluate a primary care-based young adult vaccination campaign, measure the reproductive number (R) and, together with vaccination coverage estimates, predict R until 2012. The campaign had no impact on immunity in young adults. R was estimated to be 0.69 and predicted to stay well below the epidemic threshold of 1 until at least 2012, indicating that Australia should remain free of endemic measles in the medium term. To maintain elimination in the longer term, the timeliness and coverage of childhood vaccinations must improve and innovative strategies will be required to improve measles immunity among young adults. This experience is likely to apply to developed countries that have achieved or are approaching measles elimination.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Infectious Diseases and Microbiology (CIDM)-Public Health, ICPMR Building, 3rd Floor, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, and the University of Sydney, NSW, Australia. heatherg@icpmr.wsahs.nsw.gov.au
authors.forename: Heather F
authors.initials: HF
authors.lastname: Gidding
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wood
authors.forename: C Raina
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: MacIntyre
authors.forename: Heath
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Kelly
authors.forename: Stephen B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Lambert
authors.forename: Gwendolyn L
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Gilbert
authors.forename: Peter B
authors.initials: PB
authors.lastname: McIntyre
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000097:blood*; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D007115:Immunization Schedule; D007074:Immunoglobulin G / Q000097:blood; D007223:Infant; D008457:Measles / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000821:virology; D008459:Measles virus / Q000276:immunology*; D022542:Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000276:immunology; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000914:Antibodies, Viral; D007074:Immunoglobulin G; D022542:Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine