title: The rate of epidemiological and virological changes during the transition from nascent to concentrated HIV epidemic stage in the former Soviet Union countries.
abstract: The rate of processes accompanying the transition of the HIV-1 epidemic from nascent stage to concentrated one in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) during intravenous drug user (IDU)-associated HIV infection outbreaks in 1994-1999 has not been analyzed. To define the rates, we studied susceptible populations and circulating viruses before, during, and after the outbreaks. Our findings included the following: (1) the pattern of high HIV-1 genetic diversity characteristic of the nascent epidemic changed to a concentrated one within 1 year in St. Petersburg and in Moscow; (2) different FSU regions were at different stages of the HIV-1 epidemic in 1994-1996; (3) the change of serotypic patterns characteristic of different stages of the HIV/AIDS epidemic for the non-IDU risk group occurred within 1 year in Moscow, suggesting an extremely high rate of IDU-associated epidemic pattern distributions in regions and susceptible populations in the FSU.
authors.affiliation: Department of Molecular Cellular Biology and Immunology, VU Medical Center, Free University Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Alexey A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Nabatov
authors.forename: Alexey E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Masharsky
authors.forename: Sergei V
authors.initials: SV
authors.lastname: Verevochkin
authors.forename: Alexander V
authors.initials: AV
authors.lastname: Emelyanov
authors.forename: Vladimir V
authors.initials: VV
authors.lastname: Lukashov
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Heimer
authors.forename: Robert W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Ryder
authors.forename: Jaap
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Goudsmit
authors.forename: Andrei P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Kozlov
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000145:classification / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000235:genetics; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005260:Female; D014644:Genetic Variation; D006679:HIV Seropositivity / Q000453:epidemiology; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence / Q000639:trends*; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000235:genetics*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008969:Molecular Sequence Data; D010802:Phylogeny; D012307:Risk Factors; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000821:virology