title: A case study of the applicability of a prediction model for the selection of patients undergoing in vitro fertilization for single embryo transfer in another center.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the application in a different fertility clinic of a prediction model for selecting IVF patients for elective single embryo transfer.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective analysis of a large database obtained from a tertiary infertility center.
  
  
  METHODS
  University medical center.
  
  
  METHODS
  The model, derived at the "development center" was applied in 494 consecutive first IVF cycles carried out at the "application center."
  
  
  METHODS
  After adjustment of embryo scoring system to be compatible with that used by the prediction model, it was applied to the development center data. A score chart for predicting the probability of singleton or twin pregnancy was constructed.
  
  
  METHODS
  The area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) was determined to measure the ability of the model to discriminate between ongoing pregnancy and twin pregnancy. Calibration plots were made to assess agreement between predicted and observed pregnancy rates (PR).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The areas under the ROC for predicting ongoing pregnancy and twin pregnancy were 0.63 and 0.66, respectively. Insertion of a correction factor equivalent to the difference in odds ratios for ongoing PR between the two centers was required to improve the calibration of the model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  After adaptation, the model performed well in the application center.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC University, Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. chunault@hetnet.nl <chunault@hetnet.nl>
authors.forename: Claudine C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Hunault
authors.forename: Egbert R
authors.initials: ER
authors.lastname: te Velde
authors.forename: Sjerp M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Weima
authors.forename: Nicholas S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Macklon
authors.forename: Marinus J C
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Eijkemans
authors.forename: Ellen R
authors.initials: ER
authors.lastname: Klinkert
authors.forename: J Dik F
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Habbema
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D004624:Embryo Transfer; D047108:Embryonic Development; D005260:Female; D005307:Fertilization in Vitro; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D018579:Patient Selection; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D018873:Pregnancy Rate