title: Suppressive valacyclovir therapy: impact on the population spread of HSV-2 infection.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Recent trial results demonstrate that the transmission probability of HSV-2 in monogamous couples is nearly halved by the use of valacyclovir as suppressive therapy.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The goal of this study is to understand the potential impact of suppressive valacyclovir therapy on the transmission of HSV-2 within a population.
  
  
  METHODS
  A mathematical model of HSV-2 epidemiology was developed which included suppressive therapy with the efficacy observed in the clinical trial. The model represented HSV-2 spread in an age and sexual activity stratified population where rates of viral shedding declined based on time since infection. The model tested the impact of a range of suppression coverage levels.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Suppressive therapy reduces the population incidence of HSV-2. With coverage rates of 3.2%, the incidence of HSV-2 would be reduced by between 1.8% and 2.8%. Higher coverage rates were estimated to reduce the incidence of new cases up to 13%. Starting suppression closer to the time of infection also reduces the incidence of new cases.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The impact of suppressive therapy on the HSV-2 epidemic is modest at current coverage levels but could be substantially increased with higher rates of diagnosis and a focus on coverage soon after infection.
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemiology, Public Health and Primary Care, Imperial College London, St. Mary's Campus, Norfolk Place, London, UK. jr.williams@imperial.ac.uk
authors.forename: John R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: Jamie C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Jordan
authors.forename: E Anne
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Davis
authors.forename: Geoffrey P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Garnett
mesh_terms: D000212:Acyclovir / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000031:analogs & derivatives* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005260:Female; D006558:Herpes Genitalis / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D018258:Herpesvirus 2, Human / Q000187:drug effects* / Q000302:isolation & purification; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D012747:Sexual Partners; D015229:Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Viral / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D000077483:Valacyclovir; D014633:Valine / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000031:analogs & derivatives* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D017201:Virus Shedding
chemical_list: D000998:Antiviral Agents; D014633:Valine; D000077483:Valacyclovir; D000212:Acyclovir