title: A quantitative assessment of the risks from illegally imported meat contaminated with foot and mouth disease virus to Great Britain.
abstract: Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is considered by many as the most important animal disease in the world. FMD is highly contagious and outbreaks incur significant costs as affected countries are severely limited in their ability to trade. A number of trade commodities may be contaminated with FMD virus (FMDV) including animal products, for example, meat. As a member of the European Union, Great Britain (GB) has put in place a number of regulations to prevent the importation of pathogens in imported meat products. However, the illegal importation of meat provides a route by which safety controls may be circumvented and meat from FMD affected areas may be imported. This study assesses the FMD infection risk posed to the livestock population of GB from the illegal importation of meat, and estimates the major contributors to this overall risk, through the development of a quantitative risk assessment model. From model results, the total amount of illegal meat entering GB each year is estimated on average to be 11,875 tonnes. with 90% certainty that this is between 4,398 and 28,626 tonnes per year; of which between 64.5 and 565 kg are contaminated with FMDV. This flow of illegal meat results in an estimate of a frequency of FMD infection in GB livestock of 0.015 cases of infected animals per year, with 90% certainty it is between 0.0017 and 0.053. Imports from the region Near and Middle East account for 47% of this risk, and 68% of the risk is attributed to bone-in and dried de-boned products.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Veterinary Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, New Haw, Addlestone, Surrey KT15 3NB, UK. ehartnett@analyzerisk.com
authors.forename: Emma
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Hartnett
authors.forename: Amie
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Adkin
authors.forename: Miles
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Seaman
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Cooper
authors.forename: Eamon
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Watson
authors.forename: Helen
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Coburn
authors.forename: Tracey
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: England
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Marooney
authors.forename: Christophen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Marooney
authors.forename: Anthony
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cox
authors.forename: Marion
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wooldridge
authors.forename: Mavion
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wooldridge
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D003132:Commerce; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D005506:Food Contamination; D005513:Food Inspection; D005516:Food Microbiology; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D029544:Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus / Q000378:metabolism*; D006801:Humans; D007878:Legislation as Topic; D008460:Meat; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment; D006113:United Kingdom