Ophthalmology human resource projections: are we heading for a crisis in the next 15 years?
BACKGROUND
Ophthalmology residency positions have increased in recent years. This study looks at whether the expansion is enough to avoid shortages in the future.


METHODS
The Canadian Medical Association Physician Resource Evaluation Template was used to project the supply of ophthalmologists up to 2016, assuming a status quo scenario in terms of attrition and gain factors.


RESULTS
The ratio of ophthalmologists to population is steadily declining but not as fast as previously projected.


CONCLUSIONS
With the scenario presented, the supply of ophthalmologists will be inadequate in the future. Expanding Canadian residency training programs to their maximum capacity will maintain the current national ophthalmologist-to-population ratio but will still not be enough to meet the demand for ophthalmology services because of the shift in demographics as baby boomers age.
Bellan
Lorne
L
Department of Ophthalmology, University of Manitoba, Misericordia Health Centre, Winnipeg, Canada. lbellan@cc.umanitoba.ca
Buske
Lynda
L
D002170:Canada; D004503:Education, Medical, Graduate / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006295:Health Resources; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006302:Health Services Research; D006280:Health Workforce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007396:Internship and Residency / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D009885:Ophthalmology / Q000193:education; D011158:Population Growth; D014850:Waiting Lists