title: Modeling the long-term transport and accumulation of radionuclides in the landscape for derivation of dose conversion factors.
abstract: To evaluate the radiological impact of potential releases to the biosphere from a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel, it is necessary to assess the long-term dynamics of the distribution of radionuclides in the environment. In this paper, we propose an approach for making prognoses of the distribution and fluxes of radionuclides released from the geosphere, in discharges of contaminated groundwater, to an evolving landscape. The biosphere changes during the temperate part (spanning approximately 20,000 years) of an interglacial period are handled by building biosphere models for the projected succession of situations. Radionuclide transport in the landscape is modeled dynamically with a series of interconnected radioecological models of those ecosystem types (sea, lake, running water, mire, agricultural land and forest) that occur at present, and are projected to occur in the future, in a candidate area for a geological repository in Sweden. The transformation between ecosystems is modeled as discrete events occurring every thousand years by substituting one model by another. Examples of predictions of the radionuclide distribution in the landscape are presented for several scenarios with discharge locations varying in time and space. The article also outlines an approach for estimating the exposure of man resulting from all possible reasonable uses of a potentially contaminated landscape, which was used for derivation of Landscape Dose Factors.
authors.affiliation: Facilia AB, Bromma, Sweden. rodolfo.avila@facilia.se
authors.forename: Rodolfo Moreno
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Avila
authors.forename: Ulrik
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Kautsky
authors.forename: Per-Anders
authors.initials: PA
authors.lastname: Ekström
mesh_terms: D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011850:Radioactive Waste; D011868:Radioisotopes; D014186:Transportation; D018505:Waste Management
chemical_list: D011850:Radioactive Waste; D011868:Radioisotopes