title: [Medium-term forecast of solar cosmic rays radiation risk during a manned Mars mission].
abstract: Medium-term forecasting radiation hazard from solar cosmic rays will be vital in a manned Mars mission. Modern methods of space physics lack acceptable reliability in medium-term forecasting the SCR onset and parameters. The proposed estimation of average radiation risk from SCR during the manned Mars mission is made with the use of existing SCR fluence and spectrum models and correlation of solar particle event frequency with predicted Wolf number. Radiation risk is considered an additional death probability from acute radiation reactions (ergonomic component) or acute radial disease in flight. The algorithm for radiation risk calculation is described and resulted risk levels for various periods of the 23-th solar cycle are presented. Applicability of this method to advance forecasting and possible improvements are being investigated. Recommendations to the crew based on risk estimation are exemplified.
authors.forename: V M
authors.initials: VM
authors.lastname: Petrov
authors.forename: A G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Vlasov
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D018535:Mars; D008954:Models, Biological; D011832:Radiation Injuries / Q000175:diagnosis*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D019445:Solar Activity; D013026:Space Flight