Modified grey model for estimating traffic tunnel air quality.
This study compared three forecasting models based on the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of their accuracy in forecasting air pollution in a traffic tunnel: the Grey model (GM), the combination model used four sample point and five sample point prediction with GM (1,1)(GM(1,1)(4 + 5)), and the modified grey model (MGM). An MGM was combined using the four points of the original sequence using the original grey prediction GM (1,1) for short-term forecasting. The proposed method cannot only enhance the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but can also solve the jump data forecasting problem something for which the original grey model is inappropriate. The MAPE was applied to the models, and the MGM found the proposed method to be simple and efficient. The MAPE of MGM, calculated over 3 h of forecasts, were as follows: 10.12 (Upwind), 10.07 (Middle) and 7.68 (Downwind) for CO; 10.79 (Upwind), 6.05 (Middle) and 5.98 (Downwind) for NOx, and 11.67 (Upwind), 7.32 (Middle) and 4.56 (Downwind) for NMHC. The MGM model results reveal that the combined forecasts can significantly decrease the overall forecasting error. Results of this demonstrate that MGM can accurately forecast air pollution in the Kaohsiung Chung-Cheng Tunnel.
Lee
Cheng-Chung
CC
Graduate School of Engineering Science and Technology, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliou, Yunlin, Taiwan.
Wan
Terng-Jou
TJ
Kuo
Chao-Yin
CY
Chung
Chung-Yi
CY
D000388:Air / Q000592:standards*; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis*; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D001335:Vehicle Emissions
D001335:Vehicle Emissions