What is the best predictor of future type 2 diabetes?
OBJECTIVE
We sought to assess insulin secretion/insulin resistance index in predicting the risk for future type 2 diabetes


METHODS
A total of 1,551 nondiabetic subjects from the San Antonio Heart Study received an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) with measurement of plasma glucose and insulin concentrations at 0, 30, 60, and 120 min at baseline and after 7-8 years of follow-up. Insulin secretion/insulin resistance index was calculated as the product of Matsuda index and DeltaI(0-30)/DeltaG(0-30) or DeltaI(0-120)/DeltaG(0-120). The discriminatory power of various prediction models for development of type 2 diabetes was tested with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve.


RESULTS
Insulin secretion/insulin resistance index (0- to 30- and 0- to 120-min time periods) had the greatest areas under the ROC curve (0.85 and 0.86, respectively), which were significantly greater than the 2-h plasma glucose concentration during the OGTT or the San Antonio Diabetes Prediction Model (SADPM) (P < 0.001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). A model based on the combination of the SADPM and a modified version of the insulin secretion/insulin resistance index or 1-h plasma glucose concentration had equal power to predict the risk for future type 2 diabetes compared with the insulin secretion/insulin resistance index.


CONCLUSIONS
The insulin secretion/insulin resistance index is useful as a predictor of future development of type 2 diabetes. A model based on the combination of the SADPM and either a modified version of the insulin secretion/insulin resistance index or 1-h plasma glucose concentration can equally predict future type 2 diabetes.
Abdul-Ghani
Muhammad A
MA
Division of Diabetes, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas 78229, USA. albarado@uthscsa.edu
Williams
Ken
K
DeFronzo
Ralph A
RA
Stern
Michael
M
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test; D006801:Humans; D007328:Insulin / Q000097:blood; D007333:Insulin Resistance / Q000502:physiology*; D008487:Medical History Taking; D017058:Mexican Americans; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D013781:Texas / Q000453:epidemiology; D044465:White People
D001786:Blood Glucose; D007328:Insulin