title: Predictors of hysterectomy in women with common pelvic problems: a uterine survival analysis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Comprising over 600,000 patients per year, hysterectomy is the most common nonobstetrical operation performed in US women. Little is known about the natural history of the noncancerous uterine conditions leading to hysterectomy. We followed a prospective cohort of women with common pelvic problems to determine whether simple clinical characteristics could predict a subsequent hysterectomy.
  
  
  METHODS
  We recruited 762 women seeking care for abnormal uterine bleeding, chronic pelvic pain, or symptomatic uterine fibroids and ascertained their hysterectomy status during 4 years of surveillance. We collected baseline patient-reported sociodemographic and clinical data and fit Cox models to predict the effects of covariates on hysterectomy across patient age.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There were 99 hysterectomies, resulting in 0.044 hysterectomies per person-year of observation and a 13.5% cumulative hysterectomy rate. Hysterectomy was independently predicted by multiple pelvic symptoms or symptomatic fibroids (hazard ratio [HR], 1.97; 95% CI, 1.18-3.28), previous use of a gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist (HR, 2.54; 95% CI, 1.53-4.24), and an absence of symptom resolution (HR, 2.24; 95% CI, 1.46-3.44). Survival curves plotted for subgroups with combinations of these predictors showed an escalating risk of hysterectomy with each additional risk factor. Predicted hysterectomy rates ranged from 20%, if all 3 predictors were absent, to 95%, if all 3 were present.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For women with common pelvic problems, three easily measured clinical characteristics (symptom combination, degree of resolution, and earlier use of a gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist) predict the likelihood of subsequent hysterectomy and can be used to inform counseling about the likely success of alternative treatments.
authors: Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences and Medical Effectiveness Research Center for Diverse Populations, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA 94110, USA.
authors: Lee A
authors: LA
authors: Learman
authors: Miriam
authors: M
authors: Kuppermann
authors: Elena
authors: E
authors: Gates
authors: Steven E
authors: SE
authors: Gregorich
authors: James
authors: J
authors: Lewis
authors: A Eugene
authors: AE
authors: Washington
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002908:Chronic Disease; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007044:Hysterectomy; D007889:Leiomyoma / Q000601:surgery*; D017699:Pelvic Pain / Q000601:surgery*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014592:Uterine Hemorrhage / Q000601:surgery*; D014594:Uterine Neoplasms / Q000601:surgery*