title: Reproductive phase locking of mosquito populations in response to rainfall frequency.
abstract: The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle, in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events, could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases.
authors: College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America. jshaman@coas.oregonstate.edu.edu
authors: Jeffrey
authors: J
authors: Shaman
authors: Jonathan F
authors: JF
authors: Day
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003198:Computer Simulation; D009033:Culicidae / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D057232:Global Warming; D008297:Male; D009032:Mosquito Control / Q000379:methods*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011891:Rain; D012098:Reproduction / Q000502:physiology*