The link between judgments of comparative risk and own risk: further evidence.
Individuals typically believe that they are less likely than the average person to experience negative events, a phenomenon termed "unrealistic optimism". The direct method of assessing unrealistic optimism employs a question of the form, "Compared with the average person, what is the chance that X will occur to you?". However, it has been proposed that responses to such a question (direct-estimates) are based essentially just on estimates that X will occur to the self (self-estimates). If this is so, any factors that affect one of these estimates should also affect the other. This prediction was tested in two experiments. In each, direct- and self-estimates for an unfamiliar health threat - homocysteine-related heart problems - were recorded. It was found that both types of estimate were affected in the same way by varying the stated probability of having unsafe levels of homocysteine (Study 1, N=149) and varying the stated probability that unsafe levels of homocysteine will lead to heart problems (Study 2, N=111). The results are consistent with the proposal that direct-estimates are constructed just from self-estimates.
Gold
Ron S
RS
School of Psychology, Deakin University, Victoria, Australia. rongold@deakin.edu.au
D000328:Adult; D001294:Attitude to Health; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008016:Life Change Events; D008297:Male; D012307:Risk Factors; D014342:Truth Disclosure