title: Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America.
abstract: How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.
authors.affiliation: Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA. seager@ldeo.columbia.edu
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Seager
authors.forename: Mingfang
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ting
authors.forename: Isaac
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Held
authors.forename: Yochanan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Kushnir
authors.forename: Jian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.forename: Gabriel
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Vecchi
authors.forename: Huei-Ping
authors.initials: HP
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.forename: Nili
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Harnik
authors.forename: Ants
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Leetmaa
authors.forename: Ngar-Cheung
authors.initials: NC
authors.lastname: Lau
authors.forename: Cuihua
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Jennifer
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Velez
authors.forename: Naomi
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Naik