title: Spread of the tiger: global risk of invasion by the mosquito Aedes albopictus.
abstract: Aedes albopictus, commonly known as the Asian tiger mosquito, is currently the most invasive mosquito in the world. It is of medical importance due to its aggressive daytime human-biting behavior and ability to vector many viruses, including dengue, LaCrosse, and West Nile. Invasions into new areas of its potential range are often initiated through the transportation of eggs via the international trade in used tires. We use a genetic algorithm, Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP), to determine the ecological niche of Ae. albopictus and predict a global ecological risk map for the continued spread of the species. We combine this analysis with risk due to importation of tires from infested countries and their proximity to countries that have already been invaded to develop a list of countries most at risk for future introductions and establishments. Methods used here have potential for predicting risks of future invasions of vectors or pathogens.
authors.affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia 30341, USA. mbenedict@cdc.gov
authors.forename: Mark Q
authors.initials: MQ
authors.lastname: Benedict
authors.forename: Rebecca S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Levine
authors.forename: William A
authors.initials: WA
authors.lastname: Hawley
authors.forename: L Philip
authors.initials: LP
authors.lastname: Lounibos
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000821:virology*; D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003132:Commerce; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D004463:Ecology; D005544:Forecasting; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D007299:Insect Bites and Stings; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000254:growth & development*; D009032:Mosquito Control; D011158:Population Growth; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012307:Risk Factors