Epidemiological prognosis of cervical cancer in Bulgaria for the period 1997-2010.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study was to make a prognosis for the expected levels of the basic epidemiological indicators (incidence and mortality) of cervical cancer for the period 1997 through 2010, based on the surveillance data and the disease trends obtained during the screening activities performed so far (1970-1996).


METHODS
The data we studied came from the National Cancer Registry and the Central Institute of Statistics. The statistical processing of all data was performed using the software package SPSS / + v.501 for Windows and the prognosis for the expected levels of incidence and mortality of invasive cervical cancer, and incidence of carcinoma in situ (CIS) were derived through extrapolation analysis.


RESULTS
Based on these data, and on the assumption that all factors affecting the incidence and mortality rates will preserve their intensity and the direction of their impact, a fairly unfavourable prognosis of increase of these indicators was obtained, with levels of about 23.7 and 9.3 per 100,000 women yearly for incidence and mortality, respectively, at the end of the prognostic period, i.e. in 2010. For comparison, the actual incidence and mortality at the start (1970) of the screening program in our country were 12.1 and 3.9 per 100,000/year women, respectively. On the contrary, further decline of the CIS incidence rate (ranging between 3.1 to 6.6 per 100,000 women for the period 1970- 1996) is expected for the period 1997-2010, and the predicted level of this indicator at the end of the prognostic period was 2.15 per 100,000 women yearly.


CONCLUSIONS
Based on the results of this study we conclude that an aggravating unfavourable tendency of both incidence and mortality for invasive cancer and of incidence for CIS can be expected for the period 1997-2010 should the situation of lack of cervical screening programs persists.
Kostova
P
P
Department of Gynecology, National Center of Oncology, Sofia, Bulgaria.
Zlatkov
V
V
Danon
S
S