Predation can increase the prevalence of infectious disease.
Many host-pathogen interactions are embedded in a web of other interspecific interactions. Recent theoretical studies have suggested that reductions in predator abundance can indirectly lead to upsurges in infectious diseases harbored by prey populations. In this note, we use simple models to show that in some circumstances, predation can actually increase the equilibrial prevalence of infection in a host, where prevalence is defined as the fraction of host population that is infected. Our results show that there is no complete generalization possible about how shifts in predation pressure translate into shifts in infection levels, without some understanding of host population regulation and the role of acquired immunity. Our results further highlight the importance of understanding the dynamics of nonregulatory pathogens in reservoir host populations and the understudied effects of demographic costs incurred by individuals that survive infection and develop acquired immunity.
Holt
Robert D
RD
Department of Zoology, University of Florida, P.O. Box 118525, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA. rdholt@zoo.ufl.edu
Roy
Manojit
M
D000818:Animals; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000662:veterinary*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000662:veterinary*; D020387:Food Chain; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence