The effect of the 1995 heat wave in Chicago on all-cause and cause-specific mortality.
OBJECTIVE
We sought to reexamine the effects of the 1995 Chicago heat wave on all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including mortality displacement, using advanced time-series analysis methods.


METHODS
We used Poisson regression with penalized regression splines to model excess mortality and mortality displacement over a 50-day period centered on the day in which the heat wave temperature peaked, adjusting for meteorological and other variables. We controlled for temporal trends by using daily mortality data during 1993-1997. We estimated relative risks (RRs) with reference to the first day of the 50-day period.


RESULTS
We estimated that there were 692 excess deaths from June 21, 1995, to August 10, 1995; 26% of these deaths were owing to mortality displacement. RR for all-cause mortality on the day with peak mortality was 1.74 (95% confidence interval=1.67, 1.81). Risk of heat-related death was significantly higher among Blacks, and mortality displacement was substantially lower.


CONCLUSIONS
The 1995 Chicago heat wave substantially effected all-cause and cause-specific mortality, but mortality displacement was limited. Mortality risks and displacement affected Blacks disproportionally. Appropriately targeted interventions may have a tangible effect on life expectancy.
Kaiser
Reinhard
R
Division for Emergency and Environmental Health Services, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Ga, USA. rkaiser@ke.cdc.gov
Le Tertre
Alain
A
Schwartz
Joel
J
Gotway
Carol A
CA
Daley
W Randolph
WR
Rubin
Carol H
CH
D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis; D002423:Cause of Death; D002641:Chicago / Q000453:epidemiology; D002980:Climate; D003644:Death Certificates; D005260:Female; D018882:Heat Stress Disorders / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D014505:Urban Population
D000393:Air Pollutants