title: Application of the bradford hill criteria to assess the causality of cisapride-induced arrhythmia: a model for assessing causal association in pharmacovigilance.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The Bradford Hill criteria are a widely used, useful tool for the assessment of biomedical causation. We have examined their application to pharmacovigilance using the example of cisapride-induced QTc interval prolongation/arrhythmia.
  
  
  METHODS
  A literature search was conducted using MEDLINE, EMBASE, Reactions Weekly and regulatory websites to identify evidence for the association between cisapride and QTc interval prolongation/arrhythmia that had been published in the English language. Two hundred and five publications were identified as being potentially suitable for the study. After excluding irrelevant articles, studies on high-risk populations and review articles, 70 publications were assessed using the Bradford Hill criteria. These included 24 case reports, case series or spontaneous report summaries; eight epidemiological studies; 22 clinical studies; and 16 experimental (in vivo and in vitro) publications.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The most compelling evidence for an association between cisapride use and QTc interval prolongation/arrhythmia came from case/spontaneous reports and biological plausibility. Considering the rare incidence of serious cardiac events, these criteria formed the basis for the strength of the association. The number of reports from different populations showed consistency. Specificity was supported by clinical and cardiographic characterisation of the events. There were temporal relationships between the events and the initiation of cisapride treatment, increases in the dosage and the receipt of interacting medications. The relationships between the adverse events and the latter two factors exhibited biological gradients. Experimental evidence could be found from biological models, as well as reports of positive dechallenge and/or rechallenge found in individual patients. Cisapride was found to bind the human ether-a-go-go-related gene (HERG) potassium channel, which provides a plausible mechanism for QTc interval prolongation/arrhythmia. Other QTc interval-prolonging/arrhythmic drugs that also bind to HERG provided an analogy for cisapride causing QTc interval prolongation/arrhythmia via this mechanism. The evidence provided by clinical studies was inconsistent, and epidemiological studies failed to demonstrate an association. Nevertheless, this did not prevent the assessment of causation.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study showed how different types of evidence found in pharmacovigilance can be evaluated using the Bradford Hill criteria. Further work is required to examine how the criteria can be applied to different types of adverse events and how they may be applied to pharmacovigilance.
authors.affiliation: Drug Safety Research Unit, Bursledon Hall, Southampton, UK. michael.perrio@dsru.org
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Perrio
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Voss
authors.forename: Saad A W
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Shakir
mesh_terms: D016907:Adverse Drug Reaction Reporting Systems / Q000592:standards / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D020117:Cisapride / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D019317:Evidence-Based Medicine / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008133:Long QT Syndrome / Q000139:chemically induced*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D017891:Pharmacoepidemiology / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards*; D011358:Product Surveillance, Postmarketing / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012307:Risk Factors; D017366:Serotonin Receptor Agonists / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000627:therapeutic use
chemical_list: D017366:Serotonin Receptor Agonists; D020117:Cisapride