A mathematical model of the dynamics of Salmonella Cerro infection in a US dairy herd.
We developed a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of salmonella to describe an outbreak of S. Cerro infection that occurred in a Pennsylvania dairy herd. The data were collected as part of a cooperative research project between the Regional Dairy Quality Management Alliance and the Agricultural Research Service. After the initial detection of a high prevalence of S. Cerro infection in the herd, a frequent and intensive sampling was conducted and the outbreak was followed for 1 year. The data showed a persistent presence of S. Cerro with a high prevalence of infection in the herd. The dynamics of host and pathogen were modelled using a set of nonlinear differential equations. A more realistically distributed (gamma-distributed) infectious period using multiple stages of infection was considered. The basic reproduction number was calculated and relevance to the intervention strategies is discussed.
Chapagain
P P
PP
Department of Population Medicine and Diagnostic Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA. prem.chapagain@fiu.edu
van Kessel
J S
JS
Karns
J S
JS
Wolfgang
D R
DR
Hovingh
E
E
Nelen
K A
KA
Schukken
Y H
YH
Grohn
Y T
YT
D000818:Animals; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D017053:Infection Control / Q000379:methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010414:Pennsylvania; D015995:Prevalence; D012475:Salmonella / Q000145:classification / Q000302:isolation & purification; D012481:Salmonella Infections, Animal / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*