A risk-predictive score for cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction in Chinese patients.
BACKGROUND
Cardiogenic shock after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) remains a poor prognosis. Although numerous studies discussed the predictors of cardiogenic shock complicating AMI, the data in Chinese patients is still absent. The goal of this study is to develop a risk-predictive score for cardiogenic shock after AMI, among Chinese patients, so as to guide clinicians to prevent cardiogenic shock.


METHODS
Patients with ST-segment elevated AMI were provided by two Chinese hospitals from 1994 to 2004. Baseline characteristics of each case were documented. Multivariable logistic regression modeling techniques were used to develop a model to predict the occurrence of cardiogenic shock within 72 h after admission. On the basis of the coefficients in the model, a risk score was developed for the probability of cardiogenic shock. To test its viability, another population, which was consistent with the original population, confirmed the scoring.


RESULTS
Among 2,077 patients, 184 cases developed cardiogenic shock within 72 h. Age, gender, BMI, killip class, MI location, multivessel disease, previous MI, family history of CAD, and thrombolytic therapy were strong predictors for shock after AMI. A risk-predictive score for shock was developed. It predicted cardiogenic shock accurately in another Chinese population.


CONCLUSIONS
A predictive model is developed in Chinese patients with AMI for the first time. It is based on some simple parameters, which can be easily obtained by clinicians. The risk score derived from the model can predict cardiogenic shock accurately.
Zhang
Min
M
Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming University of Medical Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan 650032, PR China. minniech2003@21cn.com
Li
Jian
J
Cai
Yi Ming
YM
Ma
Hong
H
Xiao
Jian Ming
JM
Liu
Jian
J
Zhao
Ling
L
Guo
Tao
T
Han
Ming Hua
MH
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001794:Blood Pressure; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006339:Heart Rate; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000150:complications* / Q000503:physiopathology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012770:Shock, Cardiogenic / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology* / Q000503:physiopathology