Expected impact of agriculture expansion on the world avifauna.
Agriculture expansion is a major cause of the current biodiversity decline. From the knowledge of the average bird densities in the terrestrial biomes, and using forecasts of biome conversions associated to agriculture expansion between 1990 and 2050, we estimate that these conversions would reduce by 8 to 26% the global avifauna, in number of individuals, depending on socio-economic scenarios and farmland management. Then, adding these values to previous estimates, we estimate that 27-44% of the bird species could be lost due to agriculture expansion from Neolithic to 2050.
Teyssèdre
Anne
A
Département d'écologie et gestion de la biodiversité (DEGB), Muséum national d'histoire naturelle, 36, rue Geoffroy-Saint-Hilaire, 75005 Paris, France. anne.teyssedre@free.fr
Couvet
Denis
D
D000383:Agriculture; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D001717:Birds; D017753:Ecosystem; D011156:Population Density