Dynamics of Salmonella transmission on a British pig grower-finisher farm: a stochastic model.
Previous modelling studies have estimated that between 1% and 10% of human salmonella infections are attributable to pig meat consumption. In response to this food safety threat the British pig industry have initiated a salmonella monitoring programme. It is anticipated that this programme will contribute to achieving a UK Food Standards Agency target for reducing salmonella levels in pigs at slaughter by 50% within 5 years. In order to better inform the monitoring programme, we have developed a stochastic transmission model for salmonella in a specialist grower-finisher pig herd, where data from a Danish longitudinal study have been used to estimate some of the key model parameters. The model estimates that about 17% of slaughter-age pigs will be infected with salmonella, and that of these infected pigs about 4% will be excreting the organism. In addition, the model shows that the most effective control strategies will be those that reduce between-pen transmission.
Hill
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Centre for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis, Veterinary Laboratories Agency Weybridge, New Haw, Surrey, UK. a.hill@vla.defra.gsi.gov.uk
Snary
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EL
Arnold
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ME
Alban
L
L
Cook
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AJ
D000818:Animals; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005513:Food Inspection; D005516:Food Microbiology; D006801:Humans; D008460:Meat; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012478:Salmonella Food Poisoning / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000635:transmission*; D013552:Swine; D015047:Zoonoses