Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments: evaluating the 'margins of error' of group v. individual predictions of violence.
BACKGROUND
Actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) estimate the probability that individuals will engage in future violence.


OBJECTIVE
To evaluate the ;margins of error' at the group and individual level for risk estimates made using ARAIs.


METHODS
An established statistical method was used to construct 95% CI for group and individual risk estimates made using two popular ARAIs.


RESULTS
The 95% CI were large for risk estimates at the group level; at the individual level, they were so high as to render risk estimates virtually meaningless.


CONCLUSIONS
The ARAIs cannot be used to estimate an individual's risk for future violence with any reasonable degree of certainty and should be used with great caution or not at all. In theory, reasonably precise group estimates could be made using ARAIs if developers used very large construction samples and if the tests included few score categories with extreme risk estimates.
Hart
Stephen D
SD
Department of Psychology, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada V5A 1S6. hart@sfu.ca
Michie
Christine
C
Cooke
David J
DJ
D000206:Actuarial Analysis / Q000592:standards; D003951:Diagnostic Errors; D006801:Humans; D010554:Personality Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000592:standards; D012307:Risk Factors; D014754:Violence / Q000517:prevention & control*