Assessment of intervention measures for the 2003 SARS epidemic in Taiwan by use of a back-projection method.
OBJECTIVE
To reconstruct the infection curve for the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Taiwan and to ascertain the temporal changes in the daily number of infections that occurred during the course of the outbreak.


METHODS
Back-projection method.


RESULTS
The peaks of the epidemic correspond well with the occurrence of major infection clusters in the hospitals. The overall downward trend of the infection curve after early May corresponds well to the date (May 10) when changes in the review and classification procedure were implemented by the SARS Prevention and Extrication Committee.


CONCLUSIONS
The major infection control measures taken by the Taiwanese government over the course of the SARS epidemic, particularly those regarding infection control in hospitals, played a crucial role in containing the outbreak.
Yip
Paul S F
PS
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong. sfpyip@hku.hk
Hsieh
Y H
YH
Xu
Ying
Y
Lam
K F
KF
King
C C
CC
Chang
H L
HL
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000465:Algorithms; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods; D016358:Contact Tracing; D003428:Cross Infection / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010356:Patient Isolation; D011790:Quarantine; D045169:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors