The role of motivation, responsibility, and integrative complexity in crisis escalation: comparative studies of war and peace crises.
Drawing on D. G. Winter's (1993) comparison of 1914 and the Cuban Missile Crisis, the author identified 8 paired crises (1 escalating to war, 1 peacefully resolved). Documents (diplomatic messages, speeches, official media commentary) from each crisis were scored for power, affiliation, and achievement motivation; text measures of responsibility and activity inhibition; and integrative complexity. Aggregated effect-size results show that war crises had significantly higher levels of power motivation and responsibility, whereas peace crises showed trends toward higher integrative complexity and achievement motivation. Follow-up analyses suggested that these results are robust with respect to both sides in a crisis, type of material scored, and historical time. The power motive results extend previous findings, but the responsibility results suggest that responsibility plays a paradoxical role in war. Future research directions are sketched, and the role of psychological content analysis in monitoring the danger of war is discussed.
Winter
David G
DG
Department of Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1043, USA. dgwinter@umich.edu
D000124:Achievement; D003142:Communication; D003220:Conflict, Psychological; D003466:Cultural Characteristics; D034462:Dissent and Disputes; D006076:Government; D006801:Humans; D007398:Interpersonal Relations; D009042:Motivation; D011057:Politics; D011209:Power, Psychological; D011340:Problem Solving; D012933:Social Identification; D012941:Social Responsibility; D014857:Warfare