title: The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020.
abstract: We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974-2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224,000 in 2001 to 299,000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.
authors.affiliation: King's College London, Thames Cancer Registry, 42 Weston Street, London SE1 3QD, UK. henrik.moller@kcl.ac.uk
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Møller
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Fairley
authors.forename: V
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Coupland
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Okello
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Green
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Forman
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Møller
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Bray
mesh_terms: D017281:Cost of Illness; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000145:classification / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012042:Registries