title: Prognostic indices with brief and standard CBT for panic disorder: I. Predictors of outcome.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Although the effectiveness of cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) in the management of panic disorder (PD) is now well established, there have been few studies of predictors of outcome with this patient group using clinical effectiveness trial data, a hypothesis-testing model, and a dependent measure of clinically significant change.
  
  
  METHODS
  The data for this study came from a randomized controlled trial of three forms of CBT delivery for PD with and without agoraphobia (two 6-week CBT programmes, one of which was computer assisted, and one therapist-directed 12-week CBT programme), comprising a total of 186 patients across two sites. Based on previous related research, five hypothesized predictors of post-treatment and follow-up outcome were identified and examined, using a series of bivariate and multivariate analyses.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The results in general supported the hypotheses. Strength of blood/injury fears, age of initial onset of panic symptoms, co-morbid social anxieties and degree of agoraphobic avoidance were predictive of both measures of post-treatment outcome. Degree of residual social difficulties and the continued use of anxiolytics at post-treatment were also shown to predict poor outcome at the 6-month follow-up. However, strength of continuing dysfunctional agoraphobic cognitions by the end of active treatment did not predict outcome at follow-up for the sample as a whole.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The identification of consistent predictors of outcome with CBT has many clinical and research benefits. As CBT, however, is being delivered increasingly in a variety of brief formats, further research is required to identify moderators of response to these 'non-standard' treatment formats.
authors.affiliation: NHS Fife, Department of Clinical Psychology, Stratheden Hospital, Cupar, Fife, UK. mgtd@stir.ac.uk
authors.forename: Michael G T
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Dow
authors.forename: Justin A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Kenardy
authors.forename: Derek W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Johnston
authors.forename: Michelle G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Newman
authors.forename: C Barr
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.forename: Aileen
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Thomson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000379:Agoraphobia / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy; D015928:Cognitive Behavioral Therapy / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D016584:Panic Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D013813:Therapy, Computer-Assisted; D016896:Treatment Outcome