title: The metabolic syndrome predicts cardiovascular events in subjects with normal fasting glucose: results of a 15 years follow-up in a Mediterranean population.
abstract: The aim of this study was to evaluate the cardiovascular (CV) risk due to the metabolic syndrome in a 15-year prospective study of a Sicilian population. In the Mediterranean area obesity is highly prevalent, but epidemiological data on the metabolic syndrome are limited.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among the 1351 subjects enrolled in the "Ventimiglia di Sicilia" epidemiological project, we selected 687 subjects between 35 and 75 years of age; baseline parameters were assessed and subjects have been followed for 15 years recording CV events, total and cardiovascular mortality. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to both the Adult Treatment Panel III and the International Diabetes Federation criteria. Metabolic syndrome (ATPIII criteria) was significantly (p<0.00001) more prevalent in women (31.5%) than in men (12.4%). The metabolic syndrome increased the risk of CV events with a hazard ratio of 1.9 (confidence interval CI; 1.46-2.46). Using a Cox proportional hazards estimation model, the survival curve of subjects with metabolic syndrome and normal fasting glucose did not significantly differ from the curve of subjects with metabolic syndrome and impaired fasting glucose (IFG).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In a 15-year follow-up the metabolic syndrome is predictive of CV events regardless of the presence of IFG or diabetes mellitus.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Medicine and Emerging Diseases, University of Palermo, Palermo, Italy.
authors.forename: Davide
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Noto
authors.forename: Carlo Maria
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Barbagallo
authors.forename: Angelo Baldassare
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Cefalù
authors.forename: Angelo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Falletta
authors.forename: Michelangelo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sapienza
authors.forename: Giovanni
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Cavera
authors.forename: Salvatore
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Amato
authors.forename: Michele
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pagano
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Maggiore
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Carroccio
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Notarbartolo
authors.forename: Maurizio R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Averna
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000787:Angina Pectoris / Q000453:epidemiology; D001786:Blood Glucose; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000453:epidemiology; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology; D005215:Fasting; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D018149:Glucose Intolerance / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000453:epidemiology; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012802:Sicily / Q000453:epidemiology; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose