title: Workforce analysis in orthopaedic surgery: how can we improve the accuracy of our predictions?
abstract: Since the 1970s, workforce analysis for orthopaedic surgery has predicted a surplus of physicians into the 21st century. In 1998, the RAND study predicted a surplus of 4,100 orthopaedists in 2010. As we approach 2010, we find no surplus. The projected population growth during the next 20 years of those older than age 65 years presupposes a greater need for orthopaedists, given an increase in degenerative disease and fragility fractures associated with aging. The federal government predicts an overall shortage of physicians by 2020. Given the current nature of workforce analysis models and the concerns evoked by these disparate predictions, we, the authors, advocate change. Rather than large studies separated by decades, we recommend routine monitoring of the orthopaedic workforce. Further, we suggest that national, regional, and local organizations, as well as subspecialty societies, work together to monitor current and future orthopaedic workforce needs. Orthopaedic organizations should develop collaborative relationships with experts in the field and devise a true working model that allows for ongoing strategic planning.
authors.affiliation: University of Michigan Medical Center, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0328, USA.
authors.forename: Frances A
authors.initials: FA
authors.lastname: Farley
authors.forename: James N
authors.initials: JN
authors.lastname: Weinstein
authors.forename: Gordon M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Aamoth
authors.forename: Matthew S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Shapiro
authors.forename: Joshua
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Jacobs
authors.forename: Joseph C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: McCarthy
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kramer
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D003625:Data Collection; D004467:Economics; D004503:Education, Medical, Graduate / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D007396:Internship and Residency / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D020380:Needs Assessment; D009985:Orthopedics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D018802:Patient-Centered Care; D010820:Physicians / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000600:supply & distribution; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011364:Professional Practice; D014481:United States; D000078329:Workforce