title: Modeling hospital response to mild and severe influenza pandemic scenarios under normal and expanded capacities.
abstract: William Beaumont Army Medical Center conducted quantitative modeling with FluSurge 2.0 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to determine hospital capabilities in responding to patient arrival surges of the Fort Bliss population in mild 1968-type and severe 1918-type influenza pandemics. Model predictions showed that William Beaumont Army Medical Center could adequately care for all intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU patients during a mild pandemic, particularly if hospital capacity was expanded using the emergency management plan, excess surge plan, or activation of a contagious disease outbreak facility. For a severe influenza pandemic, model predictions showed that hospital beds, ventilators, and other resources would be exceeded within 2 or 3 weeks. Even at maximal hospital expansion, for a 12-week severe pandemic with a 35% attack rate there would be peak demand for 214% of available non-ICU beds, 785% of ICU beds, and 392% of ventilators. Health care planners and decision-makers should prepare for resource challenges when developing plans for the next influenza pandemic.
authors.affiliation: William Beaumont Army Medical Center, El Paso, TX 79920-5001, USA.
authors.forename: Josef A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Sobieraj
authors.forename: Joel
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Reyes
authors.forename: Kathleen N
authors.initials: KN
authors.lastname: Dunemn
authors.forename: Irvin H
authors.initials: IH
authors.lastname: Carty
authors.forename: Arunkumar
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pennathur
authors.forename: Rafael S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Gutierrez
authors.forename: Mark D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Harris
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003659:Decision Making, Organizational; D004189:Disaster Planning / Q000458:organization & administration*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006752:Hospital Planning; D006772:Hospitals, Military / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D017053:Infection Control; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy; D008875:Middle Aged; D008887:Military Medicine / Q000458:organization & administration*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D020380:Needs Assessment; D013781:Texas / Q000453:epidemiology