A model (BSurvE) for evaluating national surveillance programs for bovine spongiform encephalopathy.
Our BSurvE spreadsheet model estimates the BSE prevalence in a national cattle population, and can be used to evaluate and compare alternative strategies for a national surveillance program. Each individual surveillance test has a point value (based on demographic and epidemiological information) that reflects the likelihood of detecting BSE in an animal of a given age leaving the population via the stated surveillance stream. A target sum point value for the country is calculated according to a user-defined design prevalence and confidence level, the number of cases detected in animals born after the selected starting date and the national adult-herd size. Surveillance tests carried out on different sub-populations of animals are ranked according to the number of points gained per unit cost, and the results can be used in designing alternative surveillance programs.
Prattley
D J
DJ
EpiCentre, Institute of Veterinary, Animal, and Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North, New Zealand. d.j.prattley@massey.ac.nz
Morris
R S
RS
Cannon
R M
RM
Wilesmith
J W
JW
Stevenson
M A
MA
D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D016643:Encephalopathy, Bovine Spongiform / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000662:veterinary; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance / Q000662:veterinary*; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology