[Mathematical modeling and prognosis of incidence of enteric anthroponoses with aqueous route of transmission].
Using data on long-term dynamics of epidemic process of acute enteric infections enteric with aqueous route of transmission (typhoid fever, shigellosis caused by Shigella flexneri, hepatitis A, rotavirus gastroenteritis, etc.)the equation of regression was developed with the help of Chebyshev's polynoms. Predicted incidences of these infections for 2005 were on 61.2-99.5% in agree with the real ones on two territories of north region of West Siberia. Predicted incidence for 2006 is reflecting tendencies of epidemic process of mentioned infections.
Mefod'ev
V V
VV
Ustiuzhanin
Iu V
IuV
Kozlov
L B
LB
Tsokova
T N
TN
Fol'mer
A Ia
AIa
D003140:Communicable Disease Control; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000635:transmission; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D004405:Dysentery, Bacillary / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D005767:Gastrointestinal Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006506:Hepatitis A / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008433:Mathematics; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012400:Rotavirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D012800:Siberia / Q000453:epidemiology; D014435:Typhoid Fever / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D014871:Water Microbiology