Which population groups should be targeted for cardiovascular prevention? A modelling study based on the Norwegian Hordaland Health Study (HUSK).
OBJECTIVE
To assess level of cardiovascular risk factors in a non-selected, middle-aged population. To estimate the proportion target for risk intervention according to present guidelines and according to different cut-off levels for two risk algorithms.


METHODS
Population survey, modelling study.


METHODS
The Norwegian Hordaland Health Study (HUSK) 1997-99.


METHODS
A total of 22 289 persons born in 1950-57.


METHODS
Own and relatives' cardiovascular morbidity, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering treatment, smoking, blood pressure, cholesterol. Framingham and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) algorithms. The European guidelines on CVD prevention in clinical practice were applied to estimate size of risk groups.


RESULTS
Some 9.7% of men and 7.6% of women had CVD, diabetes mellitus, a high level of one specific risk factor, or received lipid-lowering or antihypertensive treatment. Applying a SCORE (60 years) cut-off level at 5% to the rest of the population selected 52.4% of men and 0.8% of women into a primary prevention group, while a cut-off level at 8% included 22.0% and 0.06% respectively. A cut-off level for the Framingham score (60 years) of 20% selected 43.6% of men and 4.7% of women, while a cut-off level of 25% selected 25.6% of men and 1.8% of women.


CONCLUSIONS
The findings illustrate how choices regarding risk estimation highly affect the size of the target population. Modelling studies are important when preparing guidelines, to address implications for resource allocation and risk of medicalization. The population share to be targeted for primary prevention ought to be estimated, including the impact of various cut-off points for risk algorithms on the size of the risk population.
Brekke
Mette
M
Section for General Practice, Department of General Practice and Community Health, University of Oslo, Norway. mette.brekke@medisin.uio.no
Rekdal
Magne
M
Straand
Jørund
J
D000959:Antihypertensive Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005194:Family Practice; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D000960:Hypolipidemic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009664:Norway; D017410:Practice Guidelines as Topic; D011322:Primary Prevention; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires
D000959:Antihypertensive Agents; D000960:Hypolipidemic Agents