The perpetuation and epidemic recurrence of communicable diseases in human populations.
Recurrence of communicable diseases is a looming threat for human populations. Factors explaining the recurrences are partially known, involving demographics, biology, and complex relationships with the environment, but no comprehensive theory exists today. Here, we review some recent results obtained in modelling studies with a view to understanding better the mechanisms of perpetuation. Factors intrinsic to the interaction of pathogen and host have regained interest in this respect, especially with multiple pathogen and multiple population interactions. Extrinsic factors, including pure demography and environmental forcing are also strong predictors. With increasingly detailed data available, large-scale integrated models will help sorting out the multiple influences on recurrence.
Boëlle
Pierre-Yves
PY
UMR-S 707, université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie (Paris-6), faculté de médecine Saint-Antoine, 27, rue Chaligny, 75571 Paris cedex 12, France. boelle@u707.jussieu.fr
D003140:Communicable Disease Control; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012008:Recurrence