title: [Predictive ability of a predischarge hour-specific serum bilirubin for hyperbilirubinemia in full term infants].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this paper was to assess the ability of total serum bilirubin (TSB) levels in the first 3 days of life to predict subsequent nonphysiologic hyperbilirubinemia.
  
  
  METHODS
  The predictive ability of an hour-specific nomogram for TSB values in the first week of life was prospectively assessed in 1496 full term neonates admitted to a first level neonatal unit, using a single TSB value or two consecutive ones, when available.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The incidence of TSB values > 12 mg/dL was 9.6%, while the incidence of TSB > 15 mg/dL was 2.6%. A sensitivity of 97.9% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.6% were obtained with a single bilirubin determination applying Trend 12, while 82.5% of sensitivity and 99.4% of NPV were obtained with Trend 15. Two consecutive TSB determinations identified all infants reaching TSB values > 12 mg/dL and all neonates but 5 reaching TSB values > 15 mg/dL (92.1% of sensitivity and 99% of NPV) CONCLUSION: The hour-specific TSB determination in the first 3 days of life is able to predict all neonates at risk of nonphysiologic hyperbilirubinemia and could facilitate a safe discharge from the hospital and a targeted intervention and follow-up.
authors.affiliation: Unità Operativa di Neonatologia, Ospedale Cristo Re, Roma, Italy.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Tiberi
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Latella
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Parenti
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Romagnoli
mesh_terms: D001663:Bilirubin / Q000097:blood*; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D051556:Hyperbilirubinemia, Neonatal / Q000097:blood* / Q000175:diagnosis; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007567:Jaundice, Neonatal / Q000097:blood; D007647:Kernicterus / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D015997:Neonatal Screening; D049451:Nomograms; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D001663:Bilirubin