title: Population-based incidence of type 2 diabetes in northern Spain: the Asturias Study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to define the incidence of type 2 diabetes in a low-risk Caucasian population in northern Spain and its association with various risk factors.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Asturias Study is a prospective, population-based survey of diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors. The baseline examination was carried out during 1998-1999 when 1,034 individuals, aged 30-75 years, were randomly selected to determine the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in the Principality of Asturias (northern Spain). In 2004-2005, these same subjects were invited for a follow-up examination; 700 participated. This study includes only those individuals who did not have diabetes at baseline. We used the World Health Organization 1999 criteria to classify glucose metabolism at both baseline and follow-up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The incidence of diabetes adjusted for the age and sex structure of Asturias was 10.8 cases/1,000 person-years (95% CI 8.1-14.8). The incidence rates were 5 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with normoglycemia, 21 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with isolated impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), 34.7 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with isolated impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and 95.2 cases/1,000 person-years in individuals with combined IFG-IGT. Stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, together with fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h plasma glucose, which were the strongest predictors of diabetes, triglycerides and BMI were also independently associated with progression to diabetes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In this 6-year prospective population-based study, we found an incidence of type 2 diabetes of 10.8 cases/1,000 person-years. Both FPG and 2-h plasma glucose were strongly predictive of diabetes, and their effect was additive.
authors.affiliation: Endocrinology and Nutrition, Hospital Central de Asturias, Oviedo, Spain. sergiovaldes@vodafone.es
authors.forename: Sergio
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Valdés
authors.forename: Patricia
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Botas
authors.forename: Elias
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Delgado
authors.forename: Francisco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Alvarez
authors.forename: Francisco Diaz
authors.initials: FD
authors.lastname: Cadórniga
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005215:Fasting; D005260:Female; D018149:Glucose Intolerance / Q000097:blood; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose