title: Stroke risk prediction model: a risk profile from the Korean study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The objective of this study was to develop the stroke risk prediction model among Korean population with high risk of stroke.
  
  
  METHODS
  The data in this prospective cohort study came from 47,233 stroke events occurring over 13 years among 1,223,740 Koreans, aged 30-84 years, who were insured by the National Health Insurance Corporation (NHIC) and take a biennial medical examination from 1992 to 1995. The Cox proportional Hazard Model was used to develop the Korean Stroke Risk Prediction (KSRP) model for each sex. Also, the split-half method was applied for developing a model with the first half and for testing with the rest.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The average 10-year risk for stroke was 3.52% for men and 3.66% for women. In general, actual stroke event rates were similar to the event rates predicted by the KSRP model. The discrimination using the KSRP model in the Korean cohort was high: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8165 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.7993-0.8337] for men and 0.8095 (0.7875-0.8315) for women. A graded association between predicted stroke risk and actual stroke event was observed in men [highest versus lowest deciles of the predicted risk (hazard ratio (HR) 63.17; 95% confidence interval (CI), 52.30-76.31)] and in women (HR, 120.34; 95% CI, 85.31-169.77).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The KSRP model could be used to predict the risk of stroke and would provide a useful guide to identify the groups at high risk for stroke among Korean.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, Graduate School of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Sun Ha
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Jee
authors.forename: Ji Wan
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Park
authors.forename: Sang-Yi
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Byung-Ho
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Nam
authors.forename: Hwang Gun
authors.initials: HG
authors.lastname: Ryu
authors.forename: Su Young
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Youn Nam
authors.initials: YN
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Ja Kyoung
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Sun Mi
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.forename: Ji Eun
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Yun
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007723:Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009313:National Health Programs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*