Evaluation of models that predict short-term outcome after traumatic brain injury.
OBJECTIVE
This study aimed to identify models that predicted the short-term outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) from the literature and to evaluate their clinical significance.


METHODS
Literatures from PubMED were reviewed. Regression coefficients and intercepts were extracted. A group of 229 cases was used for validation and the unfavourable rate was calculated to assess the validity of these models by the area under receiver operating. Characteristic curve (AUC), C-statistic and Brier score.


RESULTS
In total, 13 studies of 18 different models were included. Data from the validation group were in accordance with the indicators of the studies reviewed. All models got an AUC value ranging from 0.644-0.890 except two (AUC value <0.6) and their Brier scores were near zero. However, the calibration of most studies was insufficient (p < 0.05).


CONCLUSIONS
Most of the models included in this study have a good discriminatory power while lacking sufficient calibration. However, they all predict with relative accuracy at the level of individuals. Therefore, current models can be used to predict the survival rate of individual patients and may be useful to inform patients and relatives about the likelihood of a beneficial outcome.
Xu
Xiao Yan
XY
Department of Neurosurgery, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, PR China.
Liu
Wei Guo
WG
Yang
Xiao Feng
XF
Li
Lei Qing
LQ
D001930:Brain Injuries / Q000175:diagnosis*; D006801:Humans; D008959:Models, Neurological; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results