title: Implications of climate change for evaporation from bare soils in a Mediterranean environment.
abstract: The purpose of this study was to predict quantitative changes in evaporation from bare soils in the Mediterranean climate region of Turkey in response to the projections of a regional climate model developed in Japan (hereafter RCM). Daily RCM data for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETr) and soil evaporation were obtained for the periods of 1994--2003 and 2070--2079. Potential evaporation (Ep) from bare soils was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation with a surface resistance of zero. Simulation of actual soil evaporation (Ea) was carried out using Aydin model (Aydin et al., Ecological Modelling 182:91-105, 2005) combined with Aydin and Uygur (2006, A model for estimating soil water potential of bare fields. In Proceedings of the 18th International Soil Meeting (ISM) on Soils Sustaining Life on Earth, Managing Soil and Technology, Sanliurfa, 477-480pp.) model of predicting soil water potential at the top surface layer of a bare soil, after performances of Aydin model (R2 = 94.0%) and Aydin and Uygur model (R2 = 97.6) were tested. The latter model is based on the relations among potential soil evaporation, hydraulic diffusivity, and soil wetness, with some simplified assumptions. Input parameters of the model are simple and easily obtainable such as climatic parameters used to compute the potential soil evaporation, average diffusivity for the drying soil, and volumetric water content at field capacity. The combination of Aydin and Aydin and Uygur models appeared to be useful in estimating water potential of soils and Ea from bare soils, with only a few parameters. Unlike ETr and Ep projected to increase by 92 and 69 mm (equivalent to 8.0 and 7.3% increases) due to the elevated evaporative demand of the atmosphere, respectively, Ea from bare soils is projected to reduce by 50 mm (equivalent to a 16.5% decrease) in response to a decrease in rainfall by 46% in the Mediterranean region of Turkey by the 2070s predicted by RCM, and consequently, to decreased soil wetness in the future.
authors.affiliation: Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Mustafa Kemal University, Antakya 31034, Turkey.
authors.forename: Mehmet
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Aydin
authors.forename: Tomohisa
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yano
authors.forename: Fatih
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Evrendilek
authors.forename: Veli
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Uygur
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D019083:Mediterranean Region; D012987:Soil; D014867:Water / Q000737:chemistry
chemical_list: D012987:Soil; D014867:Water