Stroke risk prediction model: a risk profile from the Korean study.
OBJECTIVE
The objective of this study was to develop the stroke risk prediction model among Korean population with high risk of stroke.


METHODS
The data in this prospective cohort study came from 47,233 stroke events occurring over 13 years among 1,223,740 Koreans, aged 30-84 years, who were insured by the National Health Insurance Corporation (NHIC) and take a biennial medical examination from 1992 to 1995. The Cox proportional Hazard Model was used to develop the Korean Stroke Risk Prediction (KSRP) model for each sex. Also, the split-half method was applied for developing a model with the first half and for testing with the rest.


RESULTS
The average 10-year risk for stroke was 3.52% for men and 3.66% for women. In general, actual stroke event rates were similar to the event rates predicted by the KSRP model. The discrimination using the KSRP model in the Korean cohort was high: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.8165 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.7993-0.8337] for men and 0.8095 (0.7875-0.8315) for women. A graded association between predicted stroke risk and actual stroke event was observed in men [highest versus lowest deciles of the predicted risk (hazard ratio (HR) 63.17; 95% confidence interval (CI), 52.30-76.31)] and in women (HR, 120.34; 95% CI, 85.31-169.77).


CONCLUSIONS
The KSRP model could be used to predict the risk of stroke and would provide a useful guide to identify the groups at high risk for stroke among Korean.
Jee
Sun Ha
SH
Department of Epidemiology and Health Promotion, Graduate School of Public Health, Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Park
Ji Wan
JW
Lee
Sang-Yi
SY
Nam
Byung-Ho
BH
Ryu
Hwang Gun
HG
Kim
Su Young
SY
Kim
Youn Nam
YN
Lee
Ja Kyoung
JK
Choi
Sun Mi
SM
Yun
Ji Eun
JE
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007723:Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009313:National Health Programs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D017678:Sex Distribution; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology*