title: Exploring the contribution of patient-reported and clinician based variables for the prediction of low back work status.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Successful management of workers on sick leave due to low back pain by the general physician and physiotherapist depends on reliable prognostic information on the course of low back pain and work resumption.
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective cohort study in 194 patients who were compensated because of chronic low back pain and who were treated by a physiotherapy functional restoration program. Patient-reported and clinician based prognostic indicators were assessed at baseline before patients entered the functional restoration program. We investigated the predictive value of these indicators on work status at 6 months. Relationships were studied using logistic regression analysis in a 2-step bootstrap modelling approach and a nomogram was developed. Discrimination and calibration of the nomogram was evaluated internally and the explained variation of the nomogram calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Seventy percent of workers were back to work at 6 months. We found that including duration of complaints, functional disability, disc herniation and fear avoidance beliefs resulted in the "best" prognostic model. All these factors delayed work resumption. This model was used to construct a nomogram. The explained variation of the nomogram was 23.7%. Discrimination was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and was 0.76 and for calibration we used the slope estimate that was 0.91. The positive predictive values of the nomogram at different cut-off levels of predicted probability were good.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Knowledge of the predictive value of these indicators by physicians and physiotherapists will help to identify subgroups of patients and will thus enhance clinical decision-making.
authors.affiliation: Body@Work, Research Center Physical Activity, Work and Health, TNO-VUmc, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. mw.heymans@vumc.nl
authors.forename: Martijn W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Heymans
authors.forename: Jon J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Ford
authors.forename: Joan M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: McMeeken
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chan
authors.forename: Henrica C W
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: de Vet
authors.forename: Willem
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: van Mechelen
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000534:rehabilitation* / Q000628:therapy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009426:Netherlands; D049451:Nomograms; D010358:Patient Participation; D026741:Physical Therapy Modalities; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D020127:Recovery of Function; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D018582:Sick Leave