title: Patterns of decline and evidence of subgroups in patients with Alzheimer's disease taking galantamine for up to 48 months.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Lacking long-term placebo-controlled trials of cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) in Alzheimer's disease, how decline is modeled is crucial to interpreting the effects of long-term, open-label use. We aimed to: 1) understand changes in cognition and function in people taking galantamine; (2) identify treatment subgroups.
  
  
  METHODS
  This is an open-label long-term extension (up to 48 months) of two placebo-controlled clinical trials from Europe and Canada. At baseline, 240 patients with mild-moderate Alzheimer's disease at baseline had received galantamine continuously for 36 months. The trajectory of scores on the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog) and the Disability Assessment for Dementia (DAD) was modeled over 48 months. Goodness of fit was compared using normalized residuals and by calculating correlation coefficients between observed and fitted data. Iterative K-means clustering identified subgroups.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 240 patients, 51 (21%) withdrew between months 36-48 (nine died and 12 with adverse events). The mean ADAS-Cog worsened from 22.6 (mean)+/-8.6 (SD) at baseline to 31.3+/-3.1, with similar changes in the DAD. The logistic function fit better (ADAS-Cog norm of residuals=2.05, r=0.993; DAD=2.21, r=0.998) than the commonly used Stern equation (ADAS-Cog=4.22, r=0.944; DAD=7.51, r=0.986). K-means clustering identified three stable groups; least decline (n=82), persistent progression (n=75), and an intermediate group (n=82). Initial conditions were important: the mean ADAS-Cog score for those with least decline was 15+/-8, better than both the intermediate group (20+/-9) and persistent progressors (30+/-10; p<0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Alzheimer's disease patients show variable long-term decline that is best modeled as a logistic function, not as linear decline. Over 48 months, about one-third of patients showed little decline, while one-third showed important decline.
authors.affiliation: Geriatric Medicine and Neurology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada. Kenneth.Rockwood@Dal.ca
authors.forename: Kenneth
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Rockwood
authors.forename: Dingwei
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Dai
authors.forename: Arnold
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mitnitski
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000145:classification / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000523:psychology*; D002170:Canada; D002800:Cholinesterase Inhibitors / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D003071:Cognition; D018450:Disease Progression; D005060:Europe; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005702:Galantamine / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D016032:Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D002800:Cholinesterase Inhibitors; D005702:Galantamine