[Communicating risk--a matter of chance?].
BACKGROUND
Statistics and a good understanding of numbers are important professional tools for doctors in order to understand and communicate risk estimates.


METHODS
In this questionnaire survey carried out among 129 specialist trainees the ability to calculate and compare risk values (Relative Risk Reduction, Absolute Risk Reduction, Number Needed to Treat and a combination of these) was examined along with the general understanding of numbers in relation to probabilities.


RESULTS
The survey showed that 69% of the participants were able to calculate a risk reduction accurately. Answers from the respondents did not depend on whether information was given as absolute or relative risk reductions. 13% of the participants were able to correctly estimate the risk of a false positive answer in connection with screening.


CONCLUSIONS
The trainee doctors demonstrated a surprisingly poor ability to make basic probability calculations and a poor understanding of screening results. A thorough understanding of risk measures as well as basic probabilities is a prerequisite for good objective patient information. This survey indicates that there is considerable room for improvement in these areas.
Yoon
Lene Søndergaard
LS
Syddansk Universitet, Institut for Sundhedstjenesteforskning, Miljømedicin.
Nexøe
Jørgen
J
Nielsen
Jesper Bo
JB
D002983:Clinical Competence; D003142:Communication; D005189:False Positive Reactions; D006801:Humans; D008403:Mass Screening; D008433:Mathematics; D010353:Patient Education as Topic / Q000592:standards*; D010817:Physician-Patient Relations; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000592:standards*; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires