Estimates and projections of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma in Australia among people born in Asia-Pacific countries.
OBJECTIVE
Australia has increasing immigration from hepatitis B virus (HBV) endemic countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR). This study estimates immigration-related chronic HBV cases, chronic HBV prevalence, and HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from 1960 to 2005 and projects HBV-related HCC to 2025 in Australia among people born in the APR.


METHODS
The populations of APR origin for the period 1960-2005 were derived from Australian census data. HBV prevalence from population-based sero surveys in the APR countries was used to estimate new chronic HBV cases (immigrant arrivals per year with chronic HBV). Age-specific incidence rates of HCC derived from a Taiwanese population-based study were used to estimate and project HBV-related HCC.


RESULTS
Chronic HBV cases among APR-born population increased rapidly from the late 1970s reaching a peak of 4182 in 1990. Chronic HBV prevalence increased to >53 000 in 2005. Estimates of HBV-related HCC increased linearly from one in 1960 to 140 in 2005, with a projected increase to 250 in 2025. Universal HBV vaccination programs in countries of origin had limited impact on projected HBV-related HCC to 2025.


CONCLUSIONS
The burden of chronic HBV including HBV-related HCC among APR-born Australians has increased over the past three decades and is projected to increase further during the next two decades.
Nguyen
Van Thi Thuy
VT
School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Razali
Karina
K
Amin
Janaki
J
Law
Matthew G
MG
Dore
Gregory J
GJ
D000328:Adult; D001208:Asia / Q000208:ethnology; D001210:Asia, Southeastern; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology / Q000821:virology*; D003906:Developing Countries; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D019694:Hepatitis B, Chronic / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology / Q000821:virology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010139:Pacific Islands / Q000208:ethnology; D015995:Prevalence; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012189:Retrospective Studies