title: Circulating leptin levels predict the development of metabolic syndrome in middle-aged men: an 8-year follow-up study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Because high circulating plasma leptin is associated with many features of the metabolic syndrome (MS), such as abdominal obesity, insulin resistance and high blood pressure (BP), we analysed the ability of plasma leptin concentration to predict the risk of developing MS in a prospective investigation of adult male participants of the Olivetti Heart Study (OHS).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Three hundred and sixty out of 907 men participating in the 1994-95 and 2002-04 OHS examinations (mean age at baseline 50.4 years, range 25-73 years) were free of MS at first visit according to NCEP-ATP III criteria (modified for the lack of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol measurement at baseline). During an average follow-up period of 8 years, there were 52 incident cases of MS (14.5%) due, in particular, to a rise in the prevalence of high BP (+42.4%), abdominal obesity (+16.4%) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG, +6.1%). In multivariate analyses, a one standard deviation difference in baseline plasma leptin concentration was associated with a 1.58-fold greater risk of developing MS (95% confidence interval = 1.10-2.30, P = 0.016) accounting for age, waist circumference, homeostatic assessment model index, smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity. In particular, plasma leptin was positively associated with the risk of developing high BP (0.006) and IFG (0.014), after adjustment for confounders.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In this sample of an adult male population free of MS at baseline, circulating plasma leptin was a significant predictor of the risk of MS and, in particular, of its high BP and IFG components, independently of potential confounders.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Federico II University of Naples Medical School, Naples, Italy. galletti@unina.it
authors.forename: Ferruccio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Galletti
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Barbato
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Versiero
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Iacone
authors.forename: Ornella
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Russo
authors.forename: Gianvincenzo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Barba
authors.forename: Alfonso
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Siani
authors.forename: Francesco P
authors.initials: FP
authors.lastname: Cappuccio
authors.forename: Eduardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Farinaro
authors.forename: Elisabetta
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: della Valle
authors.forename: Pasquale
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Strazzullo
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D020738:Leptin / Q000097:blood*; D008297:Male; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000097:blood* / Q000503:physiopathology; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D020738:Leptin