title: Optimal spending functions for asymmetric group sequential designs.
abstract: We present optimized group sequential designs where testing of a single parameter theta is of interest. We require specification of a loss function and of a prior distribution for theta. For the examples presented, we pre-specify Type I and II error rates and minimize the expected sample size over the prior distribution for theta. Minimizing the square of sample size rather than the sample size is found to produce designs with slightly less aggressive interim stopping rules and smaller maximum sample sizes with essentially identical expected sample size. We compare optimal designs using Hwang-Shih-DeCani and Kim-DeMets spending functions to fully optimized designs not restricted by a spending function family. In the examples selected, we also examine when there might be substantial benefit gained by adding an interim analysis. Finally, we provide specific optimal asymmetric spending function designs that should be generally useful and simply applied when a design with minimal expected sample size is desired.
authors.affiliation: Merck Research Laboratories, UG1C-46, 351 Sumneytown Pike, Upper Gwynedd, PA 19454-2505, USA. keaven_anderson@merck.com
authors.forename: Keaven M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Anderson
mesh_terms: D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018401:Sample Size