The development and validation of a diabetes risk score for high-risk Thai adults.
OBJECTIVE
To develop a simple risk score to identify high-risk individuals for diabetes screening in Thailand.


METHODS
The authors analyzed data from 75-g oral glucose tolerance tests performed in 159 males and 270 females, aged 48.4 +/- 10.9 years.


RESULTS
The independent variables associated with diabetes included age (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.01) and known history of hypertension (HHT) (p < 0.01). The risk equation was Y = 3 age + 5 BMI + 50 HHT. At the cut-off Y value of 240, the sensitivity and specificity for having diabetes were 96.8% and 24.0%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 17.8% and the negative predictive value was 97.8%. Using the equation in a validation group comprising 1617 subjects, it was found that 560 (34.6%) diabetes screenings could be saved while 28 subjects (12.8%) with diabetes would be missed.


CONCLUSIONS
The authors have developed a simple risk scoring method that should be helpful in decreasing the number of unnecessary screening and optimizing the costs associated with diabetes screening.
Keesukphan
Prasit
P
Department of Family Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Rama 6 Rd., Rajthevi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand. rapku@mahidol.ac.th
Chanprasertyothin
Suwannee
S
Ongphiphadhanakul
Boonsong
B
Puavilai
Gobchai
G
D000328:Adult; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D008875:Middle Aged; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013785:Thailand