Trends and future projections of child injury in New South Wales: A tool for advocacy?
OBJECTIVE
To describe the trend of unintentional hospitalised injury in children aged 0-14 years in New South Wales (NSW), Australia during 1993-1994 to 2004-2005 and to estimate future projections of common child injury hospitalisations from 2006 to 2021.


METHODS
NSW hospitalisation data were used to describe injury trends of children aged 14 years or less who were residents of NSW (1993-1994 to 2004-2005). Projected injury-related hospitalisations of children for 2006-2021 were estimated assuming that the current observed rate of change in childhood injury hospitalisation rates continued to 2021.


RESULTS
During 1993-1994 to 2004-2005, there were 238 093 injury-related hospitalisations of children aged 14 years or less in NSW. Assuming the rate of change in injury hospitalisation observed between 1993-1994 and 2004-2005 continued into the future, the all hospitalised injury incidence rate for children aged 14 years or less is projected to decrease by 1.0% each year to 2021. Injury mechanisms such as burns and scalds, swimming pool non-fatal drowning and poisoning are all projected to decrease in the future, although not for all age groups. Falls (excluding those from playground equipment) and falls from playground equipment hospitalisations (excluding children less than 1 year) are projected to increase.


CONCLUSIONS
Although the incidence of hospitalisation for some common child-related injury mechanisms is projected to decrease over the coming years, others are projected to increase. It is possible that advocacy efforts might benefit from using projected injury trends. Co-ordinated cross-government action is needed to successfully implement child injury prevention strategies, particularly in the playground environment.
Mitchell
Rebecca
R
NSW Injury Risk Management Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. r.mitchell@unsw.edu.au <r.mitchell@unsw.edu.au>
Schmertmann
Marcia
M
Sherker
Shauna
S
D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008485:Medical Audit; D009517:New South Wales / Q000453:epidemiology; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology*