title: Assessment of predictive prognostic factors for functional endoscopic sinus surgery in a 5-year prospective outcome study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Among numerous studies in the literature regarding prognostic factors that might determine outcome in functional endoscopic sinus surgery (FESS), very few have dealt with assessment of their predictive potential regarding outcome, and none have tried to find out the extent of such a prediction. We have developed a composite model to find out the predictive values of various prognostic factors, using an outcome measure based on the need for postoperative medical intervention.
  
  
  METHODS
  One hundred nine patients were recruited for FESS and followed up at regular intervals for 5 years. Ten prognostic factors were identified and were correlated with prospectively recorded outcome measures. A discriminant analysis using SPSS software was performed to identify the prognostic factors that could "predict" the outcome.
  
  
  RESULTS
  CT scan scores and polyp scores were the strongest predictors. Using our model, the probability to predict correctly the need for postoperative systemic medication was found to be 81.7%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We have generated a model to predict the outcome of FESS, with a 5-year follow-up. CT scan scores and polyp scores were found to be the strongest predictors of the need for postoperative systemic medication.
authors.affiliation: Department of ENT, Royal Sussex University Hospital, Brighton, United Kingdom. arunesh.sil@bsuh.nhs.uk
authors.forename: Arunesh
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sil
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Mackay
authors.forename: Julian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rowe-Jones
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004724:Endoscopy / Q000379:methods; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012852:Sinusitis / Q000209:etiology / Q000601:surgery*; D016896:Treatment Outcome