title: Estimates and projections of hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma in Australia among people born in Asia-Pacific countries.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Australia has increasing immigration from hepatitis B virus (HBV) endemic countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR). This study estimates immigration-related chronic HBV cases, chronic HBV prevalence, and HBV-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) from 1960 to 2005 and projects HBV-related HCC to 2025 in Australia among people born in the APR.
  
  
  METHODS
  The populations of APR origin for the period 1960-2005 were derived from Australian census data. HBV prevalence from population-based sero surveys in the APR countries was used to estimate new chronic HBV cases (immigrant arrivals per year with chronic HBV). Age-specific incidence rates of HCC derived from a Taiwanese population-based study were used to estimate and project HBV-related HCC.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Chronic HBV cases among APR-born population increased rapidly from the late 1970s reaching a peak of 4182 in 1990. Chronic HBV prevalence increased to >53 000 in 2005. Estimates of HBV-related HCC increased linearly from one in 1960 to 140 in 2005, with a projected increase to 250 in 2025. Universal HBV vaccination programs in countries of origin had limited impact on projected HBV-related HCC to 2025.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The burden of chronic HBV including HBV-related HCC among APR-born Australians has increased over the past three decades and is projected to increase further during the next two decades.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Van Thi Thuy
authors.initials: VT
authors.lastname: Nguyen
authors.forename: Karina
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Razali
authors.forename: Janaki
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Amin
authors.forename: Matthew G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Law
authors.forename: Gregory J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Dore
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001208:Asia / Q000208:ethnology; D001210:Asia, Southeastern; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology / Q000821:virology*; D003906:Developing Countries; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D019694:Hepatitis B, Chronic / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D006801:Humans; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology / Q000821:virology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010139:Pacific Islands / Q000208:ethnology; D015995:Prevalence; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012189:Retrospective Studies