Contribution of changes in incidence and mortality to trends in the prevalence of coronary heart disease in the UK: 1996 2005.
OBJECTIVE
To assess how trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality rates among people with CHD have affected the prevalence of CHD in the UK.


RESULTS
A time trend analysis using computerized general practice clinical records of people aged 35 years and over was performed. From 1996 to 2005, age-standardized incidence of CHD decreased by 2.2% in men and 2.3% in women per year (average percentage change). Age-standardized all-cause mortality among those with CHD decreased by 4.5% in men and 3.4% in women per year (average percentage change). Age-standardized prevalence increased by 1.3% in men and 1.7% in women per year (average percentage change). Although the decline in incidence had some impact on limiting the increase in prevalence, its effect was offset by the increase in prevalence occurring as a result of improved survival among people with CHD.


CONCLUSIONS
The results suggest that increasing prevalence is largely due to decreasing mortality among people with CHD. Further increases in prevalence are likely even if the incidence of CHD continues to fall.
Davies
Alisha Ruth
AR
Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 49-51 Bedford Square, London WC1B 3DP, UK. alisha.davies@lshtm.ac.uk
Smeeth
Liam
L
Grundy
Emily Marjatta Dorothea
EM
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D002423:Cause of Death / Q000639:trends; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015995:Prevalence; D017678:Sex Distribution; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology