title: The impact of an AIDS vaccine in developing countries: a new model and initial results.
abstract: A new model was developed to examine the potential impacts of an AIDS vaccine in developing countries. The findings suggest that even a modestly efficacious first-generation vaccine could have a profound effect on the AIDS pandemic. A vaccine with 50 percent efficacy provided to 30 percent of the population would reduce new annual infections by 34 percent (seventeen million infections avoided) over fifteen years and result in substantial financial savings. A more efficacious vaccine, combined with expanded delivery, would do even more to control the pandemic. It therefore makes sense to continue investing in AIDS vaccine research and development and the eventual manufacture and widespread distribution of a vaccine.
authors.affiliation: Futures Institute Glastonbury, Connecticut, USA.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Stover
authors.forename: Lori
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bollinger
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hecht
authors.forename: Clara
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: Eva
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Roca
mesh_terms: D016915:AIDS Vaccines / Q000191:economics / Q000494:pharmacology* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003906:Developing Countries / Q000191:economics; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D004341:Drug Evaluation / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018579:Patient Selection; D011336:Probability; D012109:Research Support as Topic; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012725:Sexual Behavior / Q000145:classification; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous
chemical_list: D016915:AIDS Vaccines