[Clinical value of Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease score to predict the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis].
OBJECTIVE
To compare the clinical value in predicting the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis between the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score.


METHODS
Fifty-five cases with chronic severe hepatitis were scored by CTP and MELD score systems based on their biochemical and coagulation parameters, and related signs within 24 hours after their admission. The termination date of observation was the 90th day after their admission. The actual survival time were recorded. The comparison scores of CTP/MELD were conducted respectively and compared between the survival group and death group, among different clinical stages of chronic severe hepatitis. The correlation of CTP/MELD score with the clinical stages was analyzed respectively. The survival time, mortality and survival rate were compared respectively among the groups classified by CTP/MELD score according to Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curve.


RESULTS
The CTP score and the MELD score in death group were higher than those in survival group (both P<0.01). The CTP and MELD scores in the advanced stage group were also higher than those in the early and middle stage (both P<0.01). The correlation of the MELD score with the stage was higher (r(s) =0.689,P<0.01) than that of the CTP score (r(s)=0.428, P<0.01). The survival time of patients with CTP<12 scores, was longer than with CTP>or=12 scores, and their survival rate was also higher(both P<0.01). When the MELD score lowered, survival time was longer, and survival rate was higher. The survival time, mortality and survival rate showed significant difference among the groups classified by MELD score (<or=28 points, 28-40 points, and >or=40 points, all P<0.01).


CONCLUSIONS
The parameters employed in MELD score system are more


OBJECTIVE
and easy to achieve, the score range for patients classification is wider and more practical, and the correlation with the clinical stage is higher than CTP score system, suggesting the MELD score system is better in predicting the prognosis of patients with chronic severe hepatitis than the CTP score system.
Jiang
Zhong-sheng
ZS
Department of Infectious Diseases, the First Affilicated Hospital, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, Guangxi, China.
Jiang
Jian-ning
JN
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006521:Hepatitis, Chronic / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis; D055815:Young Adult