title: Serum anti-Müllerian hormone and FSH: prediction of live birth and extremes of response in stimulated cycles--implications for individualization of therapy.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Serum concentrations of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) correlate with oocyte yield in assisted reproduction treatment (ART) cycles, however, performance of AMH for prediction of live birth is unknown.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 340 first cycle IVF/ICSI patients (median age 34.0 years, inter-quartile range 31.0-37.0 years), had basal plasma AMH and FSH measured and their predictive values for live birth and oocyte yield compared.
  
  
  RESULTS
  AMH predicts live birth [contribution to variance (CTV) 3.84%, P < 0.001] and oocyte yield (r = 0.71, P < 0.0001, CTV 7.3%, P < 0.0001). Compared with age and FSH, AMH performs better in prediction of live births [area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.62, 95% CI 0.55-0.68; FSH AUC 0.42, 95% CI 0.35-0.49; age AUC 0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.55, P = 0.0028] and excessive response to ovarian stimulation (AMH AUC 0.90, 95% CI 0.83-0.96; FSH AUC 0.32, 95% CI 0.23-0.40; age AUC 0.57, 95% CI 0.43-0.71, P < 0.001). AMH prediction of oocyte yield is independent of age (r = -0.28, P < 0.0001, CTV 1.4%, P = 0.006), however, a significant negative interaction (CTV 3.6%, P < 0.0001) exists. AMH demonstrates improved differential distributions for non-, poor, normal and excessive ovarian responses relative to FSH and age.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Plasma AMH is a superior predictor of live birth and anticipated oocyte yield compared with FSH and age, facilitating individualization of therapy prior to first ART cycle.
authors.affiliation: Reproductive and Maternal Medicine, Division of Developmental Medicine, University of Glasgow, 10 Alexandra Parade, Glasgow G31 2ER, UK. s.nelson@clinmed.gla.ac.uk
authors.forename: Scott M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Nelson
authors.forename: Robin W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Yates
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Fleming
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D054304:Anti-Mullerian Hormone / Q000097:blood*; D005260:Female; D005640:Follicle Stimulating Hormone / Q000097:blood*; D006801:Humans; D050498:Live Birth; D009865:Oocytes / Q000166:cytology; D010062:Ovulation Induction; D011247:Pregnancy; D011379:Prognosis
chemical_list: D054304:Anti-Mullerian Hormone; D005640:Follicle Stimulating Hormone