title: Prediction of hypertensive crisis based on average, variability and approximate entropy of 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.
abstract: Approximate entropy (ApEn) of blood pressure (BP) can be easily measured based on software analysing 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM), but the clinical value of this measure is unknown. In a prospective study we investigated whether ApEn of BP predicts, in addition to average and variability of BP, the risk of hypertensive crisis. In 57 patients with known hypertension we measured ApEn, average and variability of systolic and diastolic BP based on 24-h ABPM. Eight of these fifty-seven patients developed hypertensive crisis during follow-up (mean follow-up duration 726 days). In bivariate regression analysis, ApEn of systolic BP (P<0.01), average of systolic BP (P=0.02) and average of diastolic BP (P=0.03) were significant predictors of hypertensive crisis. The incidence rate ratio of hypertensive crisis was 14.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8, 631.5; P<0.01) for high ApEn of systolic BP as compared to low values. In multivariable regression analysis, ApEn of systolic (P=0.01) and average of diastolic BP (P<0.01) were independent predictors of hypertensive crisis. A combination of these two measures had a positive predictive value of 75%, and a negative predictive value of 91%, respectively. ApEn, combined with other measures of 24-h ABPM, is a potentially powerful predictor of hypertensive crisis. If confirmed in independent samples, these findings have major clinical implications since measures predicting the risk of hypertensive crisis define patients requiring intensive follow-up and intensified therapy.
authors.affiliation: University Department of Geriatrics, Spital Netz Bern Ziegler and University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. Andreas.Schoenenberger@insel.ch
authors.forename: A W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Schoenenberger
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Erne
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ammann
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Perrig
authors.forename: U
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Bürgi
authors.forename: A E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Stuck
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D018660:Blood Pressure Monitoring, Ambulatory / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003936:Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006974:Hypertension, Malignant / Q000175:diagnosis*; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies