title: Logistic risk model for prolonged ventilation after adult cardiac surgery.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate risk prediction model for prolonged ventilation after adult cardiac surgery.
  
  
  METHODS
  This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on 12,662 consecutive patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery between April 1997 and March 2005. Data were randomly split into a development dataset (n = 6,000) and a validation dataset (n = 6,662). A multivariate logistic regression analysis was undertaken using a forward stepwise technique to identify independent risk factors for prolonged ventilation (defined as ventilation greater than 48 hours). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic were calculated to assess the performance and calibration of the model, respectively. Patients were split into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups based on their predicted probability of prolonged ventilation.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Three hundred thirty-three patients had prolonged ventilation (5.5%). Independent variables, identified with prolonged ventilation, are shown with relevant coefficient values and p values as follows: (1) age 65 to 75 years, 0.7831, p < 0.001; (2) age 75 to 80 years, 1.5605, p < 0.001; (3) age greater than 80 years, 1.7115, p < 0.001; (4) forced expiratory volume less than 70% predicted, 0.3707, p = 0.013; (5) current smoker, 0.5315, p = 0.001; (6) serum creatinine 125 to 175 micromol/L, 0.6371, p < 0.001; (7) serum creatinine greater than 175 micromol/L, 1.3817, p < 0.001; (8) peripheral vascular disease, 0.6212, p < 0.001; (9) ejection fraction less than 0.30, 0.7839, p < 0.001; (10) myocardial infraction less than 90 days, 0.7415, p < 0.001; (11) preoperative ventilation, 1.3540, p = 0.004; (12) prior cardiac surgery, 0.8946, p < 0.001; (13) urgent surgery, 0.4414, p = 0.004; (14) emergency surgery, 0.7421, p = 0.005; (15) mitral valve surgery, 0.7715, p < 0.001; (16) aortic surgery, 1.7043, p < 0.001; and (17) use of cardiopulmonary bypass, 0.4052, p = 0.025; intercept, -4.7666. The ROC curve for the predicted probability of prolonged ventilation was 0.79, indicating a good discrimination power. The prediction equation was well-calibrated, predicting well at all levels of risk. A simplified additive scoring system was also developed. In the validation dataset, 5.1% of patients had prolonged ventilation compared with 5.4% expected. The ROC curve for the validation dataset was 0.75.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We developed a contemporaneous multivariate prediction model for prolonged ventilation after cardiac surgery. This tool can be used in day-to-day practice to calculate patient-specific risk by the logistic equation or a simple scoring system with an equivalent predicted risk.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery, The Cardiothoracic Centre-Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Shekar L C
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Reddy
authors.forename: Antony D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Grayson
authors.forename: Elaine M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Griffiths
authors.forename: D Mark
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Pullan
authors.forename: Abbas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rashid
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015992:Body Mass Index; D006348:Cardiac Surgical Procedures / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006331:Heart Diseases / Q000145:classification / Q000503:physiopathology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009934:Organization and Administration; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000145:classification / Q000628:therapy; D012121:Respiration, Artificial / Q000009:adverse effects*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment