title: Reconstruction of paleodemographic characteristics from skeletal age at death distributions: perspectives from Hitotsubashi, Japan.
abstract: This is a demographic exploration of the city of Edo, which reveals the changes that accompanied its urbanization and analyzes the skeletal remains of 207 individuals from a specific site in Tokyo (Hitotsubashi), using several paleodemographic approaches. A comparison of the three methods employed herein suggests that the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation techniques provide more plausible mortality patterns than the direct method of age estimation because the direct method of age estimation relies on published age intervals for the auricular surface and that would account for the underestimation of old people relative to the other two methods. Analyses using these new approaches indicate a short life span tendency for the people of Hitotsubashi. Although we cannot rule out methodological problems of adult-age estimation, one plausible interpretation of that life expectancy is an inadequate food supply and a poor public health situation. This study suggests that, in Tokugawa Japan, urbanization might have imposed health risks, increasing the risk of mortality. Analysis of demographic data from Hitotsubashi has refined our understanding on the impact of urbanization on the Edo period, and presents new perspectives on paleodemography in Japan.
authors.affiliation: Department of Anatomy, St. Marianna University School of Medicine, 2-16-1 Sugao, Miyamae Ward, Kawasaki, Kanagawa 216-8511, Japan. nagaoka@marianna-u.ac.jp
authors.forename: Tomohito
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nagaoka
authors.forename: Kazuaki
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hirata
mesh_terms: D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000365:Age Determination by Skeleton; D044466:Asian People / Q000266:history*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003710:Demography; D049670:History, 17th Century; D049671:History, 18th Century; D049672:History, 19th Century; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D009026:Mortality; D011157:Population Dynamics