Claiming a large slice of a small pie: asymmetric disconfirmation in negotiation.
Three studies show that negotiators consistently underestimate the size of the bargaining zone in distributive negotiations (the small-pie bias) and, by implication, overestimate the share of the surplus they claim (the large-slice bias). The authors explain the results by asymmetric disconfirmation: Negotiators with initial estimates of their counterpart's reservation price that are "inside" the bargaining zone tend to behave consistently with these estimates, which become self-fulfilling, whereas negotiators with initial "outside" estimates revise their perceptions in the face of strong disconfirming evidence. Asymmetric disconfirmation can produce a population-level bias, even when initial perceptions are accurate on average. The authors suggest that asymmetric disconfirmation has implications for confirmation bias and self-fulfilling-prophecy research in social perception.
Larrick
Richard P
RP
Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA. larrick@duke.edu
Wu
George
G
D003469:Culture; D006801:Humans; D008960:Models, Psychological; D009042:Motivation; D017008:Negotiating; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires