title: Age and follow-up time affect the prognostic value of the ECG and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for stroke in adult men.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To explore whether the predictive power of mid-life ECG abnormalities and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for future stroke change over a 30-year follow-up period, and whether a repeated examination improves their predictive power.
  
  
  METHODS
  Longitudinal population-based study.
  
  
  METHODS
  2,322 men aged 50 years, with a follow-up period of 30 years. 1,221 subjects were re-examined at age 70 years
  
  
  METHODS
  Risk for fatal and non-fatal stroke during three decades of follow-up. Investigations included resting ECG and traditional cardiovascular risk factors.
  
  
  RESULTS
  When measured at age 50 years, ST segment depression and T wave abnormalities, together with ECG-left ventricular hypertrophy, were of importance only during the first 20 years, but regained importance when re-measured at age 70 years. Blood pressure was a significant predictor for stroke over all three decades of follow-up. In elderly people only, there is evidence that apolipoprotein A1 may protect from future stroke.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Mid-life values for blood pressure and ECG abnormalities retain their predictive value over long follow-up periods even though they improved in predictive power when re-measured in elderly people. Despite lower prevalence, ECG abnormalities had greater impact at age 50 years than at age 70 years. By contrast, apolipoprotein A1 was protective for future stroke only at age 70 years.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Section of Geriatrics, Uppsala Science Park, SE-751 85 Uppsala, Sweden. christina.strom_moller@pubcare.uu.se
authors.forename: Christina Ström
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Möller
authors.forename: Jonas
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Häggström
authors.forename: Björn
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Zethelius
authors.forename: Bernice
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Wiberg
authors.forename: Johan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sundström
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lind
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000503:physiopathology; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis; D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000502:physiology; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D004562:Electrocardiography / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007328:Insulin / Q000097:blood; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017202:Myocardial Ischemia / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000503:physiopathology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000503:physiopathology; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D007328:Insulin