title: Climatic, socio-economic, and health factors affecting human vulnerability to cholera in the Lake Victoria basin, East Africa.
abstract: Cholera epidemics have a recorded history in the eastern Africa region dating to 1836. Cholera is now endemic in the Lake Victoria basin, a region with one of the poorest and fastest growing populations in the world. Analyses of precipitation, temperatures, and hydrological characteristics of selected stations in the Lake Victoria basin show that cholera epidemics are closely associated with El Niño years. Similarly, sustained temperatures high above normal (T(max)) in two consecutive seasons, followed by a slight cooling in the second season, trigger an outbreak of a cholera epidemic. The health and socioeconomic systems that the lake basin communities rely upon are not robust enough to cope with cholera outbreaks, thus rendering them vulnerable to the impact of climate variability and change. Collectively, this report argues that communities living around the Lake Victoria basin are vulnerable to climate-induced cholera that is aggravated by the low socioeconomic status and lack of an adequate health care system. In assessing the communities' adaptive capacity, the report concludes that persistent levels of poverty have made these communities vulnerable to cholera epidemics.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geology, University of Nairobi, Kenya. dolago@uonbi.ac.ke
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Olago
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Marshall
authors.forename: Shem O
authors.initials: SO
authors.lastname: Wandiga
authors.forename: Maggie
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Opondo
authors.forename: Pius Z
authors.initials: PZ
authors.lastname: Yanda
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kanalawe
authors.forename: Andrew K
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Githeko
authors.forename: Tim
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Downs
authors.forename: Alfred
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Opere
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Kavumvuli
authors.forename: Edward
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kirumira
authors.forename: Laban
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ogallo
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Mugambi
authors.forename: Eugene
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Apindi
authors.forename: Faith
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Githui
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kathuri
authors.forename: Lydia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Olaka
authors.forename: Rehema
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sigalla
authors.forename: Robinah
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Nanyunja
authors.forename: Timothy
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Baguma
authors.forename: Pius
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Achola
mesh_terms: D000351:Africa, Eastern / Q000453:epidemiology; D002771:Cholera / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002980:Climate; D005843:Geography; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors