Quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in French cold-smoked salmon: I. Quantitative exposure assessment.
A quantitative assessment of the exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon (CSS) consumption in France is developed. The general framework is a second-order (or two-dimensional) Monte Carlo simulation, which characterizes the uncertainty and variability of the exposure estimate. The model takes into account the competitive bacterial growth between L. monocytogenes and the background competitive flora from the end of the production line to the consumer phase. An original algorithm is proposed to integrate this growth in conditions of varying temperature. As part of a more general project led by the French Food Safety Agency (Afssa), specific data were acquired and modeled for this quantitative exposure assessment model, particularly time-temperature profiles, prevalence data, and contamination-level data. The sensitivity analysis points out the main influence of the mean temperature in household refrigerators and the prevalence of contaminated CSS on the exposure level. The outputs of this model can be used as inputs for further risk assessment.
Pouillot
Régis
R
Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire des Ailments (Afssa), Maisons-Alfort, France.
Miconnet
Nicolas
N
Afchain
Anne-Laure
AL
Delignette-Muller
Marie Laure
ML
Beaufort
Annie
A
Rosso
Laurent
L
Denis
Jean-Baptiste
JB
Cornu
Marie
M
D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003080:Cold Temperature; D020387:Food Chain; D005511:Food Handling; D005516:Food Microbiology; D005602:France; D006801:Humans; D008089:Listeria monocytogenes / Q000302:isolation & purification* / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012474:Salmon / Q000382:microbiology*; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013997:Time Factors