How many sexually-acquired HIV infections in the USA are due to acute-phase HIV transmission?
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the number of persons in the USA who acquire HIV as a consequence of risky sexual activities with an acutely-infected sex partner.


METHODS
Estimates of the number of incident infections in the USA that are due to acute-phase HIV transmission were derived from a simple mathematical model that combined epidemiological data with information regarding the relative transmission rates for acutely-infected, nonacutely infected but serostatus-unaware, and serostatus-aware persons living with HIV.


RESULTS
Approximately 2760 (8.6%) of the estimated 32 000 sexually-acquired HIV infections in the USA each year are due to acute-phase transmission of the virus. Multivariate sensitivity analyses with a liberal range of values for key parameters produced an upper bound of 5537 infections, representing 17.3% of the total number of sexually-acquired infections.


CONCLUSIONS
Acute-phase HIV transmission accounts for fewer sexually-acquired infections in the USA than is generally assumed.
Pinkerton
Steven D
SD
Center for AIDS Intervention Research, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Medicine, Medical College of Wisconsin, 2071 North Summit Avenue, Milwaukee, WI 53202, USA. pinkrton@mcw.edu
D000208:Acute Disease; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology