A final size relation for epidemic models.
A final size relation is derived for a general class of epidemic mod els, including models with multiple susceptible classes. The derivation depends on an explicit formula for the basic reproduction number of a general class of disease transmission models, which is extended to calculate the basic reproduction number in models with vertical transmission. Applications are given to specific models for influenza and SARS.
Arino
Julien
J
Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2, Canada. arinoj@cc.umanitoba.ca
Brauer
Fred
F
van den Driessche
P
P
Watmough
James
J
Wu
Jianhong
J
D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D045169:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*