Development of a nomogram to predict occurrence of preeclampsia.
OBJECTIVE
The objective was to create a nomogram for the individual prediction of preeclampsia (PE).


METHODS
In a prospective population-based study that included 4777 patients, PE occurred in 2.4%. Age, body mass index, parity, previous preeclampsia (PPE), chronic hypertension, diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and proteinuria at first visit, and second trimester ultrasonography and umbilical artery Doppler resistance index (UARI) data were used to develop and calibrate a nomogram based on a multivariate logistic regression model.


RESULTS
Based on multivariate analysis, nulliparity (P=0.002), PPE (P=0.004), DBP (P<0.0001), biparietal diameter (P=0.011), and UARI (P=0.08) were introduced into a nomogram. Based on these variables, the nomogram had good discrimination (area under the ROC curve=0.73, P<0.01) and calibration (unreliability index=-5.2 x 10(-4)). This nomogram was validated by bootstrapping.


CONCLUSIONS
Our nomogram predicts the probability of preeclampsia. After validation in an independent population, this tool could be used to plan a preventive trial.
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Centre Hospitalier Intercommunal de Créteil and University of Paris 12, Creteil, France.
Stéphanie
S
Deis
Roman
R
Rouzier
Gilles
G
Kayem
Christophe
C
Masson
Bassam
B
Haddad
D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D049451:Nomograms; D011225:Pre-Eclampsia / Q000175:diagnosis*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D016216:Ultrasonography, Prenatal