Resistance mechanisms matter in SIR models.
We compare four SIR-style models describing behavioral or immunological disease resistance that may be both partial and temporary in parameter regions feasible for interpandemic influenza. For the models studied, backward bifurcations and bistability may occur in contexts where resistance is due to behavior change, but they do not occur when resistance originates from an immune response. Care must be exercised to ensure that modeling assumptions about resistance are consistent with the biological mechanisms under study.
Reluga
Timothy C
TC
Theoretical Biology and Biophysics Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA. timothy@reluga.org
Medlock
Jan
J
D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004198:Disease Susceptibility / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007113:Immunity, Innate / Q000276:immunology*; D015994:Incidence; D018448:Models, Immunological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D013557:Switzerland / Q000453:epidemiology