Background radiation and cancer mortality in Bavaria: an ecological analysis.
The authors investigated a possible association between background gamma radiation (BGR) and cancer and infant mortality rates. In an in-country ecological study, they performed a population-weighted linear regression of cancer (infant) mortality rates on BGR, adjusted for unemployment rate and population density. Crude cancer rates showed a highly significant increase with BGR: 38 excess cases per 100,000 person-years per millisievert/year (p < .0001). After adjusting for unemployment rate and population density, the authors found that the excess absolute risk reduced to 23.6 cases per 100,000 person-years per mSv/year (p = .0014). The corresponding excess relative risk was 10.2% (95% confidence interval = 3.9-16.7) per mSv/year. The excess relative risk for infant mortality rates was 24% (95% confidence interval = 9-42) per mSv/year. The cancer risk derived from this ecological study is 0.24/Sv, which compares with an International Commission on Radiological Protection value of 0.05/Sv. However, because they are based on highly aggregated data, the results should be interpreted with caution.
Körblein
Alfred
A
Munich Environmental Institute. alfred.koerblein@gmx.de
Hoffmann
Wolfgang
W
D001417:Background Radiation / Q000009:adverse effects*; D004463:Ecology; D005720:Gamma Rays / Q000009:adverse effects; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007226:Infant Mortality / Q000639:trends; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D016014:Linear Models; D009381:Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality*; D012306:Risk