Long-term associations of outdoor air pollution with mortality in Great Britain.
BACKGROUND
Recent studies have indicated long-term effects on mortality of particulate and sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) pollution, but uncertainties remain over the size of any effects, potential latency and generalisability.


METHODS
A small area study was performed across electoral wards in Great Britain of mean annual black smoke (BS) and SO(2) concentrations (from 1966) and subsequent all-cause and cause-specific mortality using random effect models within a Bayesian framework adjusted for social deprivation and urban/rural classification. Different latencies and changes in associations over time were assessed.


RESULTS
Significant associations were found between BS and SO(2) concentrations and mortality. The effects were stronger for respiratory illness than other causes of mortality for the most recent exposure periods (shorter latency times) and most recent mortality period (lower pollutant concentrations). In pooled analysis across four sequential 4 year mortality periods (1982-98), adjusted excess relative risk for respiratory mortality was 3.6% (95% CI 2.6% to 4.5%) per 10 microg/m(3) BS and 13.2% (95% CI 11.5% to 14.9%) per 10 ppb SO(2), and in the most recent period (1994-8) it was 19.3% (95% CI 5.1% to 35.7%) and 21.7% (95% CI 2.9% to 38.5%), respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
These findings add to the evidence that air pollution has long-term effects on mortality and point to continuing public health risks even at the relatively lower levels of BS and SO(2) that now occur. They therefore have importance for policies on public health protection through regulation and control of air pollution.
Small Area Health Statistics Unit, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK. p.elliott@imperial.ac.uk
Paul
P
Elliott
Gavin
G
Shaddick
Jonathan C
JC
Wakefield
Cornelis
C
de Hoogh
David J
DJ
Briggs
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000032:analysis; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D008171:Lung Diseases / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality*; D008875:Middle Aged; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D017062:Small-Area Analysis; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D014504:Urban Health