Can adolescents predict significant life events?
We examine whether adolescents' probability judgments for significant life events are predictive and accurate. We find significant correlations with actual experiences, reported on successive waves of a national survey. Mean probability judgments approximated observed outcome rates, or were optimistic, except that adolescents greatly overestimated their probability of dying prematurely.
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213-3890, USA. wandi@cmu.edu
Wändi Bruine
WB
de Bruin
Andrew M
AM
Parker
Baruch
B
Fischhoff
D000293:Adolescent; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008016:Life Change Events; D008297:Male; D011336:Probability; D000297:Psychology, Adolescent; D012306:Risk; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D014481:United States