Baby boomer retirement and the future of dentistry.
BACKGROUND
The dental workforce, like the Australian population, is ageing. As the large baby boomer cohort retires dental shortages will likely increase.


METHODS
Australian Bureau of Statistics census data from 1986 to 2001 were used to examine ageing of the dental workforce and attrition of dentists aged 50 years and over. The number of dentists to retire was projected over the next 20 years.


RESULTS
Since 1986, the dental workforce has aged significantly (p < 0.01). About half of the current dental workforce is projected to retire by 2026. Generation X dentists are significantly less likely to work long hours than the baby boomer cohort of dentists (p < 0.01). This is partly due to an increase in the proportion of women in the dental workforce and male Generation X dentists being less likely to work long hours (>41 per week) than male baby boomer dentists (p < 0.01).


CONCLUSIONS
Ageing of the workforce will have an impact on dentistry later than on some other professions due to the 35 per cent of dentists who work beyond 65 years of age. Nonetheless, existing dental shortages are likely to be exacerbated over the short term by the 22 per cent of dentists projected to retire over the next 10 years.
Northern Rivers University Department of Rural Health, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Sydney, Lismore, New South Wales. dschofield@med.usyd.edu.au
D J
DJ
Schofield
S L
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Fletcher
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001291:Attitude of Health Personnel; D001315:Australia; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003813:Dentistry / Q000639:trends*; D003815:Dentists / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003816:Dentists, Women / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D016901:Intergenerational Relations; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011364:Professional Practice; D012179:Retirement / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012737:Sex Factors; D013997:Time Factors