A meta-analysis of the 2004 campaign polls: an analogy to practice and publication in psychology.
The current practice of relying on single sample null hypothesis tests is being re-evaluated in the behavioral sciences. To highlight the issues raised by both sides of this discussion, a meta-analysis of The Gallup Organization's most recent U.S. Presidential election polling data was conducted. During the 2004 Presidential campaign, most pre-election polling percentages reported Bush ahead of Kerry, although the differences between the voters' preferences were typically within the margin of error. The meta-analyses used in this study showed significant differences between the two candidates' polling percentages, thus yielding a more accurate prediction than the conventional analysis which was based on single samples. These improved predictions provide support for a continued discussion about potential changes in statistical approaches to psychology.
Department of Psychology, State University of New York College at Cortland, NY 13045, USA. collingsr@cortland.edu
Raymond D
RD
Collings
Leslie G
LG
Eaton
Miranda
M
Hendrickson
D006801:Humans; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011057:Politics; D010818:Practice Patterns, Physicians' / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011584:Psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011643:Publishing / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*