On macroeconomic characteristics of pharmaceutical generics and the potential for manufacturing and consumption under fuzzy conditions.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology that is useful for analyzing, from a macroeconomic perspective, the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply features of the market of pharmaceutical generics. In order to determine the potential consumption and the potential production of pharmaceutical generics in different countries, two fuzzy decision support systems are proposed.


METHODS
Two fuzzy decision support systems, both based on the Mamdani model, were applied in this paper. These systems, generated by Matlab Toolbox 'Fuzzy' (v. 2.0), are able to determine the potential of a country for the manufacturing or the consumption of pharmaceutical generics. The systems make use of three macroeconomic input variables.


RESULTS
In an empirical application of our proposed methodology, the potential towards consumption and manufacturing in Holland, Sweden, Italy and Spain has been estimated from national indicators. Cross-country comparisons are made and graphical surfaces are analyzed in order to interpret the results.


CONCLUSIONS
The main contribution of this work is the development of a methodology that is useful for analyzing aggregate demand and aggregate supply characteristics of pharmaceutical generics. The methodology is valid for carrying out a systematic analysis of the potential generics have at a macrolevel in different countries. The main advantages of the use of fuzzy decision support systems in the context of pharmaceutical generics are the flexibility in the construction of the system, the speed in interpreting the results offered by the inference and surface maps and the ease with which a sensitivity analysis of the potential behavior of a given country may be performed.
Gascón
Fernando
F
Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Accounting Department, University of Oviedo, Campus Cristo s/n, 33006 Oviedo, Spain.
de la Fuente
David
D
Puente
Javier
J
Lozano
Jesús
J
D003363:Cost Control; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D016527:Drug Costs; D004345:Drug Industry / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends; D004363:Drug Utilization; D016568:Drugs, Generic / Q000191:economics* / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005060:Europe; D005544:Forecasting; D017143:Fuzzy Logic; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D018803:Models, Economic; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012111:Residence Characteristics; D035501:Uncertainty
D016568:Drugs, Generic