The risk of establishment of aquatic invasive species: joining invasibility and propagule pressure.
Invasive species are increasingly becoming a policy priority. This has spurred researchers and managers to try to estimate the risk of invasion. Conceptually, invasions are dependent both on the receiving environment (invasibility) and on the ability to reach these new areas (propagule pressure). However, analyses of risk typically examine only one or the other. Here, we develop and apply a joint model of invasion risk that simultaneously incorporates invasibility and propagule pressure. We present arguments that the behaviour of these two elements of risk differs substantially--propagule pressure is a function of time, whereas invasibility is not--and therefore have different management implications. Further, we use the well-studied zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) to contrast predictions made using the joint model to those made by separate invasibility and propagule pressure models. We show that predictions of invasion progress as well as of the long-term invasion pattern are strongly affected by using a joint model.
Leung
Brian
B
Department of Biology and School of Environment, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. brian.leung2@mcgill.ca
Mandrak
Nicholas E
NE
D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D049875:Dreissena / Q000502:physiology*; D017753:Ecosystem; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical
Trends Ecol Evol. 2005 May;20(5):223-8
16701373
Q Rev Biol. 2003 Dec;78(4):419-33
14737826
Ecol Appl. 2006 Dec;16(6):2035-54
17205888
Trends Ecol Evol. 2001 Apr 1;16(4):199-204
11245943
Ecol Appl. 2007 Apr;17(3):663-74
17494387
Science. 2002 Nov 8;298(5596):1233-6
12424378
Ecology. 2006 Dec;87(12):3186-99
17249242
Proc Biol Sci. 2002 Dec 7;269(1508):2407-13
12495482
Mar Pollut Bull. 2005 May;50(5):560-5
15907498
Am Nat. 2003 Dec;162(6):713-24
14737709