Does consideration of either psychological or material disadvantage improve coronary risk prediction? Prospective observational study of Scottish men.
OBJECTIVE
To assess the value of psychosocial risk factors in discriminating between individuals at higher and lower risk of coronary heart disease, using risk prediction equations.


METHODS
Prospective observational study.


METHODS
Scotland.


METHODS
5191 employed men aged 35 to 64 years and free of coronary heart disease at study enrollment


METHODS
Area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for risk prediction equations including different risk factors for coronary heart disease.


RESULTS
During the first 10 years of follow up, 203 men died of coronary heart disease and a further 200 were admitted to hospital with this diagnosis. Area under the ROC curve for the standard Framingham coronary risk factors was 74.5%. Addition of "vital exhaustion" and psychological stress led to areas under the ROC curve of 74.5% and 74.6%, respectively. Addition of current social class and lifetime social class to the standard Framingham equation gave areas under the ROC curve of 74.6% and 74.9%, respectively. In no case was there strong evidence for improved discrimination of the model containing the novel risk factor over the standard model.


CONCLUSIONS
Consideration of psychosocial risk factors, including those that are strong independent predictors of heart disease, does not substantially influence the ability of risk prediction tools to discriminate between individuals at higher and lower risk of coronary heart disease.
Macleod
John
J
Department of Primary Care and General Practice, Primary Care Clinical Sciences and Learning Centre Building, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK. j.a.macleod@bham.ac.uk
Metcalfe
Chris
C
Smith
George Davey
GD
Hart
Carole
C
D000328:Adult; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011584:Psychology; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012307:Risk Factors; D012606:Scotland; D012923:Social Class
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