Optimal timing of disease transmission in an age-structured population.
It is a common medical folk-practice for parents to encourage their children to contract certain infectious diseases while they are young. This folk-practice is controversial, in part, because it contradicts the long-term public health goal of minimizing disease incidence. We study an epidemiological model of infectious disease in an age-structured population where virulence is age-dependent and show that, in some cases, the optimal behavior will increase disease transmission. This provides a rigorous justification of the concept of "endemic stability," and demonstrates that folk-practices may have been historically justified.
Reluga
Timothy C
TC
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06520, USA. timothy@reluga.org
Medlock
Jan
J
Poolman
Eric
E
Galvani
Alison P
AP
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000818:Animals; D002648:Child; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016021:Epidemiologic Studies; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D008519:Medicine, Traditional; D008954:Models, Biological; D013997:Time Factors