title: Bias in memory predicts bias in estimation of future task duration.
abstract: Both anecdotal accounts and experimental evidence suggest that people underestimate how long it will take them to complete future tasks. A possible reason for this tendency is that people remember tasks as taking less time than they actually did, with these biased memories causing a corresponding bias in prediction. Two experiments were performed to determine whether or not a systematic bias in memory could explain a similar systematic bias in prediction. In support, it was found that (1) the tendency to underestimate future duration disappears when the task is novel, (2) there is similar bias in estimation of both past and future durations, and (3) variables that affect memory of duration, such as level of experience with the task and duration of delay before estimation, affect prediction of duration in the same way. It appears that, at least in part, people underestimate future event duration because they underestimate past event duration.
authors: Department of Psychology, University of llinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA. roym@etown.edu
authors: Michael M
authors: MM
authors: Roy
authors: Nicholas J S
authors: NJ
authors: Christenfeld
mesh_terms: D015982:Bias; D003071:Cognition; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008568:Memory; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011584:Psychology / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D013998:Time Perception
references: Psychol Bull. 1960 May;57:213-36
references: 13842596
references: Psychol Sci. 2004 Jul;15(7):474-81
references: 15200632
references: J Exp Psychol Appl. 2000 Sep;6(3):171-82
references: 11014050
references: J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 1990 Mar;16(2):196-213
references: 2137861
references: Mem Cognit. 1991 May;19(3):252-62
references: 1861611
references: Psychol Rev. 1989 Jul;96(3):459-91
references: 2756068
references: Am Psychol. 1998 Apr;53(4):429-39
references: 9572006
references: Annu Rev Psychol. 1984;35:1-36
references: 6367623
references: Mem Cognit. 1998 Sep;26(5):903-21
references: 9796225
references: Cogn Psychol. 1999 Feb;38(1):48-78
references: 10090798
references: Mem Cognit. 2001 Jan;29(1):127-36
references: 11277456
references: Psychon Bull Rev. 1997 Jun;4(2):184-97
references: 21331825
references: Cognition. 1993 Feb;46(2):101-28
references: 8432092
references: J Pers Soc Psychol. 2003 Aug;85(2):217-30
references: 12916566
references: Percept Mot Skills. 1993 Apr;76(2):599-608
references: 8483674
references: Psychon Bull Rev. 2004 Apr;11(2):373-9
references: 15260208
references: Mem Cognit. 1992 Mar;20(2):124-32
references: 1565010
references: Psychol Bull. 2005 Sep;131(5):738-56
references: 16187856