Growth around puberty as predictor of adult obesity.
OBJECTIVE
To contribute to the early risk identification of adult obesity, the anthropometric development in the first 23 years of life as a potential predictor for adult obesity was assessed. To identify the period (7-11 years, 11-16 years and 16-23 years) and type of anthropometric measure difference (weight, height and body mass index (BMI) gains) accounting for the best prediction of obesity at 33 years.


METHODS
A total of 4952 members of the 1958 British birth cohort with full information on anthropometric measures. Follow-up examinations at 7, 11, 16, 23 and 33 years were analyzed with receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs).


RESULTS
Overall 505 cohort members (10.2%) were obese at 33 years. BMI and weight gains between 7 and 11 years were the best-observed predictors for obesity at 33 years with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69; 0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71; 0.76), respectively. Height gain failed as a significant predictor at any lifetime interval. BMI gain between 7 and 11 years yielded a positive predictive value of 20% (95% CI: 19; 21) compared to 19% (95% CI: 18; 20) for weight gain. The prediction of BMI and weight gains between 7 and 11 years seemed to be unrelated to sex and the onset of puberty.


CONCLUSIONS
High weight or BMI gain from 7 to 11 years should be considered as risk factor of later obesity. These predictors combined with others might allow for targeting preventive measures at a high-risk sub-population.
Toschke
A M
AM
Division of Health and Social Care Research, King's College London, London, UK. michael.toschke@kcl.ac.uk
Rückinger
S
S
Reinehr
T
T
von Kries
R
R
D000293:Adolescent; D000367:Age Factors; D001827:Body Height / Q000502:physiology; D015992:Body Mass Index; D001835:Body Weight / Q000502:physiology; D002648:Child; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011627:Puberty / Q000502:physiology*; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D015430:Weight Gain / Q000502:physiology*; D055815:Young Adult