Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK.
We analyse the relationship between the network of livestock movements in the UK and the dynamics of two diseases: foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which has an incubation period of days, and scrapie, which incubates over years. For FMD, the time-scale of expected epidemics is similar to the time-scale of the evolution of the network. We argue that, under appropriate conditions, a static network analysis can be an appropriate tool for gaining insights into disease dynamics even when the relevant time-scales are similar, as with FMD. We show that a subclass of 'linkage moves' maintains the network structure, and so removing these links has a dramatic effect on the number of potentially infected farms, an effect corroborated by simulations. In contrast, because scrapie has a low probability of transmission per contact and a long incubation period, a static network representation is probably appropriate; however, the signature of the network in the pattern of transmission is likely to be faint. Scrapie-notifying farms were more likely to be associated with each other via trading at markets than were control farms; however, network community structure proves to be less representative of prevalence patterns than geographical region. These contradictory indicators emphasize that appropriate observation time frames and good discrimination among types of potentially infectious contacts are vital in order for network analysis to be a valuable epidemiological tool.
Kao
Rowland R
RR
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK. r.kao@vet.gla.ac.uk
Green
Darren M
DM
Johnson
Jethro
J
Kiss
Istvan Z
IZ
D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015511:Goat Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D006041:Goats; D012608:Scrapie / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012756:Sheep; D012757:Sheep Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology; D013997:Time Factors; D014186:Transportation; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology
BMC Vet Res. 2006 Mar 30;2:11
16573832
Nature. 1997 Oct 2;389(6650):448-50, 526
9333232
Trends Microbiol. 2002 Jun;10(6):279-86
12088664
Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 Feb;9(2):204-10
12603991
J Gen Virol. 2003 Dec;84(Pt 12):3503-3512
14645932
Math Biosci. 2001 Dec;174(2):61-76
11730857
Prev Vet Med. 2005 Feb;67(2-3):143-56
15737428
Nature. 2003 May 29;423(6939):498
12774113
Science. 2002 Jan 11;295(5553):332-5
11719694
Epidemiol Infect. 2005 Dec;133(6):1023-32
16274498
Science. 2001 Oct 26;294(5543):813-7
11679661
J Theor Biol. 2005 Jan 7;232(1):71-81
15498594
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2004 Jun;69(6 Pt 2):066133
15244693
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2002 Sep;66(3 Pt 2A):036113
12366190
Math Biosci. 1992 Feb;108(1):89-104
1551000
Nature. 1998 Jun 4;393(6684):440-2
9623998
Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Feb;134(1):31-40
16409648
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005 Nov 1;102(44):16031-6
16239348
Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Apr;134(2):359-67
16490141
Rev Sci Tech. 1996 Sep;15(3):827-52
9025137
Nat Rev Microbiol. 2004 Aug;2(8):675-81
15263902
Science. 2001 May 11;292(5519):1155-60
11303090
Prev Vet Med. 2006 Sep 15;76(1-2):40-55
16769142
Nature. 2005 Jun 9;435(7043):814-8
15944704
J R Soc Interface. 2006 Oct 22;3(10):669-77
16971335
Vet Rec. 2005 Apr 16;156(16):523-4
15833975
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2002 Jul;66(1 Pt 2):015104
12241410
Vet Rec. 2003 Aug 16;153(7):202-8
12956297
Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Nov 7;273(1602):2729-35
17015320
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Jun 11;99(12):7821-6
12060727
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2002 Nov;66(5 Pt 2):056115
12513564
Nature. 2001 Jun 21;411(6840):907-8
11418846
Nature. 2000 Jul 27;406(6794):378-82
10935628
Sex Transm Dis. 1997 Jan;24(1):45-56
9018783
Nature. 2004 May 13;429(6988):180-4
15141212
Vet Rec. 2001 Dec 15;149(24):729-43
11808655
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Mar 16;101(11):3747-52
15007165
Vet Rec. 2000 Apr 15;146(16):455-61
10819130
Epidemiol Infect. 2003 Oct;131(2):1015-22
14596544
Proc Biol Sci. 1999 Dec 22;266(1437):2531-8
10693825
Theor Popul Biol. 2007 Mar;71(2):160-73
17222879
Vet Rec. 2001 Aug 4;149(5):137-44
11517981
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2004 Feb;69(2 Pt 2):026113
14995526
Nature. 1997 Oct 2;389(6650):498-501
9333239
J Theor Biol. 2006 Oct 7;242(3):634-42
16730749
J Virol. 2006 Nov;80(22):11274-82
16971422
Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Aug 22;273(1597):1999-2007
16846906
J Infect Dis. 1998 Oct;178(4):949-53
9806020
Proc Biol Sci. 2005 Jul 7;272(1570):1407-14
16006334
J R Soc Interface. 2007 Aug 22;4(15):669-74
17284415