Modelling an outbreak of an emerging pathogen.
To illustrate the usefulness of mathematical models to the microbiology and medical communities, we explain how to construct and apply a simple transmission model of an emerging pathogen. We chose to model, as a case study, a large (>8,000 reported cases) on-going outbreak of community-acquired meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) in the Los Angeles County Jail. A major risk factor for CA-MRSA infection is incarceration. Here, we show how to design a within-jail transmission model of CA-MRSA, parameterize the model and reconstruct the outbreak. The model is then used to assess the severity of the outbreak, predict the epidemiological consequences of a catastrophic outbreak and design effective interventions for outbreak control.
Kajita
Emily
E
Semel Institute of Neuroscience & Human Behavior & Department of Psychiatry, UCLA AIDS Institute, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, 1100 Glendon Avenue PH2, Los Angeles, California 90024, USA.
Okano
Justin T
JT
Bodine
Erin N
EN
Layne
Scott P
SP
Blower
Sally
S
D017714:Community-Acquired Infections / Q000382:microbiology / Q000635:transmission; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D015141:Los Angeles / Q000453:epidemiology; D016106:Methicillin Resistance; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011330:Prisons; D013203:Staphylococcal Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D013211:Staphylococcus aureus