title: Transmission heterogeneity and control strategies for infectious disease emergence.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The control of emergence and spread of infectious diseases depends critically on the details of the genetic makeup of pathogens and hosts, their immunological, behavioral and ecological traits, and the pattern of temporal and spatial contacts among the age/stage-classes of susceptible and infectious host individuals.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We show that failing to acknowledge the existence of heterogeneities in the transmission rate among age/stage-classes can make traditional eradication and control strategies ineffective, and in some cases, policies aimed at controlling pathogen emergence can even increase disease incidence in the host. When control strategies target for reduction in numbers those subsets of the population that effectively limit the production of new susceptible individuals, then control can produce a flush of new susceptibles entering the population. The availability of a new cohort of susceptibles may actually increase disease incidence. We illustrate these general points using Classical Swine Fever as a reference disease.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Negative effects of culling are robust to alternative formulations of epidemiological processes and underline the importance of better assessing transmission structure in the design of wildlife disease control strategies.
authors: Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Parma, Parma, Italy. luca.bolzoni@nemo.unipr.it
authors: Luca
authors: L
authors: Bolzoni
authors: Leslie
authors: L
authors: Real
authors: Giulio
authors: G
authors: De Leo
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild; D002648:Child; D006691:Classical Swine Fever / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission* / Q000662:veterinary; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011159:Population Surveillance; D013552:Swine; D015047:Zoonoses
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