title: Considering the case for biodiversity cycles: re-examining the evidence for periodicity in the fossil record.
abstract: We re-examine the evidence for a 62 million year (Myr) periodicity in biodiversity throughout the Phanerozoic history of animal life reported by, as well as related questions of periodicity in origination and extinction. We find that the signal is robust against variations in methods of analysis, and is based on fluctuations in the Paleozoic and a substantial part of the Mesozoic. Examination of origination and extinction is somewhat ambiguous, with results depending upon procedure. Origination and extinction intensity as defined by may be affected by an artifact at 27 Myr in the duration of stratigraphic intervals. Nevertheless, when a procedure free of this artifact is implemented, the 27 Myr periodicity appears in origination, suggesting that the artifact may ultimately be based on a signal in the data. A 62 Myr feature appears in extinction, when this same procedure is used. We conclude that evidence for a periodicity at 62 Myr is robust, and evidence for periodicity at approximately 27 Myr is also present, albeit more ambiguous.
authors: Department of Geology and Natural History Museum, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America. blieber@ku.edu
authors: Bruce S
authors: BS
authors: Lieberman
authors: Adrian L
authors: AL
authors: Melott
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D005075:Biological Evolution; D005580:Fossils; D008386:Marine Biology; D010163:Paleontology; D010507:Periodicity; D013997:Time Factors
references: Science. 2003 Nov 7;302(5647):1030-2
references: 14605366
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1984 Feb;81(3):801-5
references: 6583680
references: Science. 1995 Apr 7;268(5207):52-8
references: 7701342
references: IEEE Trans Biomed Eng. 1998 Jun;45(6):698-715
references: 9609935
references: Nature. 2002 Jan 3;415(6867):65-8
references: 11780116
references: Nature. 2000 Mar 9;404(6774):177-80
references: 10724168
references: Science. 1986 Feb 21;231:833-6
references: 11542060
references: Proc Biol Sci. 2000 Jul 7;267(1450):1301-9
references: 10972124
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005 Aug 30;102(35):12326-31
references: 16105949
references: PLoS Comput Biol. 2006 Aug 11;2(8):e102
references: 16895434
references: Nature. 2006 Oct 12;443(7112):687-91
references: 17036002
references: Biol Lett. 2005 Dec 22;1(4):443-5
references: 17148228
references: Science. 2000 Jul 7;289(5476):110-2
references: 10884223
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Jan 6;101(1):187-91
references: 14684835
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 May 22;98(11):6261-6
references: 11353852
references: Nature. 2005 Mar 10;434(7030):208-10
references: 15758998
references: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Feb 21;103(8):2736-9
references: 16477008