Modelling sexually transmitted infections: the effect of partnership activity and number of partners on R0.
We model a sexually transmitted infection in a network population where individuals have different numbers of partners, separated into steady and casual partnerships, where the risk of transmission is higher in steady partnerships. An individual's number of partners of the two types defines its degree, and the degrees in the community specify the degree distribution. For this structured network population a simple model for disease transmission is defined and the basic reproduction number R0 is derived, R0 being a size-biased (i.e. biasing individuals with many partners) average number of new infections caused by individuals during the early stages of the epidemic. First a homosexual population is considered and then a heterosexual population. The heterosexual model is fitted to data from a census survey on sexual activity from the Swedish island of Gotland. The main empirical finding is that, for relevant transmission rates, the effect that so-called superspreaders have on R0 is over-estimated when not admitting for different types of partnerships.
Britton
Tom
T
Department of Mathematics, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. tom.britton@math.su.se
Nordvik
Monica K
MK
Liljeros
Fredrik
F
D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005260:Female; D020010:Heterosexuality; D006716:Homosexuality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D012747:Sexual Partners; D012749:Sexually Transmitted Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology