title: Predicting the impact of changing CO(2) on crop yields: some thoughts on food.
abstract: Recent breakthroughs in CO(2) fumigation methods using free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) technology have prompted comparisons between FACE experiments and enclosure studies with respect to quantification of the effects of projected atmospheric CO(2) concentrations on crop yields. On the basis of one such comparison, it was argued that model projections of future food supply (some of which are based on older enclosure data) may have significantly overestimated the positive effect of elevated CO(2) concentration on crop yields and, by extension, food security. However, in the comparison, no effort was made to differentiate enclosure study methodologies with respect to maintaining projected CO(2) concentration or to consider other climatic changes (e.g. warming) that could impact crop yields. In this review, we demonstrate that relative yield stimulations in response to future CO(2) concentrations obtained using a number of enclosure methodologies are quantitatively consistent with FACE results for three crops of global importance: rice (Oryza sativa), soybean (Glycine max) and wheat (Triticum aestivum). We suggest, that instead of focusing on methodological disparities per se, improved projections of future food supply could be achieved by better characterization of the biotic/abiotic uncertainties associated with projected changes in CO(2) and climate and incorporation of these uncertainties into current crop models.
authors: Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD, USA.
authors: Lewis H
authors: LH
authors: Ziska
authors: Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD, USA.
authors: James A
authors: JA
authors: Bunce
mesh_terms: D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000378:metabolism*; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000378:metabolism*; D005523:Food Supply; D008954:Models, Biological
chemical_list: D002245:Carbon Dioxide
references: Ainsworth EA, Davey PA, Bernacchi CJ, Dermody OC, Heaton EA, Moore DJ, Morgan PB, Naidu SL, Yoo Ra HH, Zhu XG, Curtis PS, Long SP. 2002. A meta-analysis of elevated [CO2] effects on soybean (Glycine max) physiology, growth and yield. Global Change Biology 8: 695-709.
references: Alberto AMP, Ziska LH, Cervancia CR, Manalo PR. 1996. The influence of increasing carbon dioxide and temperature on competitive interactions between a C3 crop, rice (Oryza sativa) and a C4 weed (Echinochloa glabrescens). Australian Journal of Plant Physiology 23: 795-802.
references: Allen LH Jr. 1979. Potentials for carbon dioxide enrichment. In: Barfield BJ, Gerber JF, eds. Modification of the aerial environment of crops. St. Joseph, MI USA: American Society of Agricultural Engineers, 500-519.
references: Allen LH Jr, Beldi SE, Shinn JH. 1985. Modeling the feasibility of free-air carbon dioxide release for vegetation response research. In: 17th Conference on Agriculture and Forest Meteorology and Seventh Conference on Biometeorology and Aerobiology, May 21-24 1985, Scottsdale, AZ. Boston MA, USA: American Meteorology Society, 161-164.
references: Allen LH, Bisbal EC, Boote K, Jones PH. 1991. Soybean dry-matter allocation under subambient and superambient levels of carbon-dioxide. Agronomy Journal 83: 875-883.
references: Amthor JS. 1995. Terrestrial higher-plant response to increasing atmospheric [CO2] in relation to the global carbon cycle. Global Change Biology 1: 243-274.
references: Amthor JS. 2001. Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration. Field Crops Research 73: 1-34.
references: Amthor JS, Koch GW. 1996. Biota growth factor β: stimulation of terrestrial ecosystem net primary production by elevated atmospheric CO2. In: GW Koch, HA Mooney, eds. Carbon dioxide and terrestrial ecosystems. San Diego, CA, USA: Academic Press, 399-414.
references: Baker JT, Allen LH Jr. 1993. Contrasting crop species responses to CO2 and temperature: rice, soybean and citrus. Vegetatio 104/105 : 239-260.
references: Baker JT, Allen LH Jr, Boote KJ, Jones P, Jones JW. 1989. Response of soybean to air temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. Crop Science 29: 98-105.
references: Baker JT, Allen LH Jr, Boote KJ, Pickering NB. 1996. Assessment of rice responses to global climate change: CO2 and temperature. In: Koch GW, Mooney HA, eds. Carbon dioxide and terrestrial ecosystems. San Diego, CA, USA: Academic Press, 265-282.
references: Batts GR, Ellis RH, Morison JIL, Nkemka PN, Gregory PJ, Hadley P. 1998. Yield and partitioning in crops of contrasting cultivars of winter wheat in response to CO2 and temperature in field studies using temperature gradient tunnels. Journal of Agricultural Science 130: 17-27.
references: Booker FL, Fiscus EL. 2005. The role of ozone flux and antioxidants in the suppression of ozone injury by elevated CO2 in soybean. Journal of Experimental Botany 56: 2139-2151.
references: Booker FL, Miller JE, Fiscus EL, Pursley WA, Stefanski LA. 2005. Comparative responses of container- versus ground-grown soybean to elevated carbon dioxide and ozone. Crop Science 45: 883-895.
references: Boote KJ, Allen LH Jr, Prasad PV, Baker JT, Gesch RW, Synder AM, Pan D, Thomas JM. 2005. Elevated temperature and CO2 impact pollination, reproductive growth and yield of several globally important crops. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan 60: 469-474.
references: Bowes G. 1996. Photosynthetic responses to changing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. In: Baker NR, ed. Photosynthesis and the environment. Dordrecht, the Netherlands: Kluwer Publishing, 387-407.
references: Bunce JA. 2005. Seed yield of soybeans with daytime or continuous elevation of carbon dioxide under field conditions. Photosynthetica 43: 435-438.
references: Cannon RJC. 1998. The implications of predicted climate change for insect pests in the UK, with emphasis on non-indigenous species. Global Change Biology 4: 785-796.
references: Crowley TJ, Berner RA. 2001. CO2 and climate change. Science 292: 870-872.
references: Cure JD, Acock B. 1986. Crop responses to carbon dioxide doubling: a literature survey. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 38: 127-145.
references: Cure JD, Israel DW, Rufty TW Jr. 1988a. Nitrogen stress effects on growth and seed yield of non-nodulated soybean exposed to elevated carbon dioxide. Crop Science 28: 671-677.
references: Cure JD, Rufty TW Jr, Israel DW. 1988b. Phosphorus stress effects on growth and seed yield responses of non-nudulated soybean to elevated carbon dioxide. Agronomy Journal 80: 897-902.
references: DeCosta WAJM, Weerakoon WMW, Herath HMLK, Abeywardena RMI. 2003. Response of growth and yield of rice (Oryza sativa) to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide in the subhumid zone of Sri Lanka. Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science 189: 83-95.
references: Deepak SS, Agrawal M. 2001. Influence of elevated CO2 on the sensitivity of two soybean cultivars to sulphur dioxide. Environmental and Experimental Botany 46: 81-91.
references: Derner JD, Tischler CR, Polley HW, Johnson HB. 2004. Intergenerational above- and belowground responses of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) to elevated CO2. Basic and Applied Ecology 5: 145-152.
references: Donnelly A, Finnan J, Jones MB, Burke JI. 2005. A note on the effect of elevated concentrations of greenhouse gases on spring wheat yield in Ireland. Irish Journal of Agricultural and Food Research 44: 141-145.
references: Drake BG, Leadley PW, Arp WJ, Nassiry D, Curtis PS. 1989. An open-top chamber for field studies of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on saltmarsh vegetation. Functional Ecology 3: 363-371.
references: Environmental Protection Agency. 2004. The ozone report: measuring progress through 2003. EPA/KJ-04-001. Research Triangle Park, NC, USA: Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Emissions, Monitoring and Analysis Division.
references: Ferris R, Wheeler TR, Ellis RH, Hadley P. 1999. Seed yield after environmental stress in soybean grown under elevated CO2. Crop Science 39: 710-718.
references: Fiore AM, Jacob DJ, Logan JA, Yin JH. 1998. Long-term trends in ground level ozone over the contiguous United States, 1980-1995. Journal of Geophysical Research 107: 4275-4285.
references: Gutierrez AP. 2000. Crop ecosystem responses to climatic change: Pests and population dynamics. In: Reddy KR, Hodges HF, eds. Climate change and global crop productivity. New York, NY, USA: CABI Publishing, 353-370.
references: Heagle AS, Booker FL, Miller JE, Pursley WA, Stefanski LA. 1999. Influence of daily CO2 exposure duration and root environment on soybean responses to elevated CO2. Journal of Environmental Quality 28: 666-675.
references: Heagle AS, Miller JE, Pursley WA. 1998. Influence of ozone stress on soybean response to carbon dioxide enrichment. III. Yield and seed quality. Crop Science 38: 128-134.
references: Heinemann AB, Maia A, Dourado-Neto D, Ingram KT, Hoogenboon G. 2006. Soybean (Glycine max. (L.L. Merr.)) growth and development response to CO2 enrichment under different temperature regimes. European Journal of Agronomy 24: 52-61.
references: Hendrey GR. 1994. The FACE Program. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 70: 3-14.
references: Hileman DR, Bhattacharya NC, Ghosh PP, Biswas PK, Allen LH Jr, Lewin KF, Hendrey GR. 1992a. Distribution of carbon dioxide within and above a cotton canopy growing in the FACE system. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 11: 187-194.
references: Hileman DR, Ghosh PP, Bhattacharya NC, Biswas PK, Allen LH Jr, Peresta G, Kimball BA. 1992b. A comparison of the uniformity of an elevated CO2 environment in three different types of open-top chambers. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 11: 195-202.
references: Holtum JAM, Winter K. 2003. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake in seedlings of two tropical tree species exposed to oscillating elevated concentrations of CO2. Planta 218: 152-158.
references: Horie T, Nakano J, Nakagawa H, Wada K, Kim HY, Seo T. 1991. Effects of elevated CO2 and high temperature on growth and yield of rice. I. Development of temperature gradient tunnels. Japanese Journal of Crop Science 60: 127-128 (in Japanese with English abstract).
references: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, Van der Linden PJ, Xiaosu D, eds 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
references: Imai K, Coleman DF, Yanagisawa T. 1985. Increase in atmospheric partial pressure of carbon dioxide and growth and yield of rice (Oryza sativa L.). Japanese Journal of Crop Science 54: 413-418.
references: Keeling CD, Bacastow RB, Bainbridge AE, Ekdahl CA Jr, Guenther PR, Waterman LS, Chin JFS. 1976. Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii. Tellus 28: 538-551.
references: Kim HY, Horie T, Nakagawa H, Wada K. 1996. Effects of elevated CO2 concentration and high temperature on growth and yield of rice. Japanese Journal of Crop Science 65: 644-651 (in Japanese with abstract in English).
references: Kim HY, Lieffering M, Kobayashi K, Okada M, Miura S. 2003. Seasonal changes in the effects of elevated CO2 on rice at three levels of nitrogen supply: a free air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment. Global Change Biology 9: 826-837.
references: Kimball BA. 1983. Carbon dioxide and agricultural yield: An assemblage and analysis of 430 prior observations. Agronomy Journal 75: 779-788.
references: Kimball BA, Kobayashi K, Bindi M. 2002. Responses of agricultural crops to free-air CO2 enrichment. Advances in Agronomy 77: 293-368.
references: Kimball BA, Pinter PJ Jr, Wall GW, Garcia RL, LaMorte RL, Jak PMC, Frumau KFA, Vugts HF. 1997. Comparisons of responses of vegetation to elevated carbon dioxide in free-air and open-top chamber facilities. In: Allen LH Jr, Kirkham MB, Olszyk DM, Whitman CE, eds. Advances in carbon dioxide research. Madison, WI, USA: American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, 113-130.
references: Kropff MJ, Cassman KG, De Vries PFT, Van Laar HH. 1993. Increasing the yield plateau in rice and the role of global climate change. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology 48: 795-798.
references: Long SP. 1991. Modification of the response of photosynthetic productivity to rising temperature by atmospheric CO2 concentrations: Has its importance been underestimated? Plant, Cell & Environment 14: 729-739.
references: Long SP, Ainsworth EA, Leakey ADB, Morgan PB. 2005. Global food insecurity. Treatment of major food crops with elevated carbon dioxide or ozone under large-scale fully open-air conditions suggests recent models may have overestimated yields. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society (Biology) 360: 2011-2020.
references: Long SP, Ainsworth EA, Leakey ADB, Nosberger J, Ort DR. 2006. Food for thought: lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations. Science 312: 1918-1921.
references: Manderscheid R, Burkart S, Bramm A, Weigel HJ. 2003. Effect of CO2 enrichment on growth and daily radiation use efficiency of wheat in relation to temperature and growth stage. European Journal of Agronomy 19: 411-425.
references: Manderscheid R, Weigel HJ. 1997. Photosynthetic and growth responses of old and modern spring wheat cultivars to atmospheric CO2 enrichment. Agriculture, Ecosystems and the Environment 64: 65-71.
references: Marenco A, Gouget H, Nedelec P, Pages JP, Karcher F. 1994. Evidence of a long-term increase in tropospheric ozone from Pic du Midi data series: consequences, positive radiative forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research 99: 16617-16632.
references: Matsui T, Namuco OS, Ziska LH, Horie T. 1997. Effects of high temperature and CO2 concentration on spikelet sterility in Indica rice. Field Crops Research 51: 213-221.
references: Miglietta F, Raschii A, Resti R, Badiani M. 1993. Growth and onto-morphogenesis of soybean (Glycine max Merril) in an open, naturally CO2-enriched environment. Plant, Cell & Environment 16: 909-918.
references: Morgan PB, Bollero GA, Nelson RL, Dohleman FG, Long SP. 2005. Smaller than predicted increase in aboveground net primary production and yield of field-grown soybean under fully open-air [CO2] elevation. Global Change Biology 11: 1856-1865.
references: Mortensen LM. 1982. Growth responses of some greenhouse plants to environment. III. Design and function of a growth chamber prototype. Scientia Horticulturae 16: 57-63.
references: Moya TB, Ziska LH, Namuco OS, Olszyk D. 1998. Growth dynamics and genotypic variation in tropical, field-grown paddy rice (Oryza sativa L.) in response to increasing carbon dioxide and temperature. Global Change Biology 4: 645-656.
references: Nakagawa H, Horie T. 2000. Rice responses to elevated CO2 and temperature. Global Environmental Research 2: 101-113.
references: Nakamoto H, Zheng S-H, Tanaka K, Yamazaki A, Furuya T, Iwaya-Inoue M, Fukuyama M. 2004. Effects of carbon dioxide enrichment during different growth periods on flowering, pod set and seed yield in soybean. Plant Production Science 7: 11-15.
references: Newton PCD, Edwards GR. 2006. Plant breeding for a changing environment. In: Newton PCD, Carran RA, Edwards GR, Niklaus PA, eds. Agroecosystems in a changing climate. Boca Raton, FL, USA: CRC Press, 309-322.
references: Okada M, Lieffering M, Nakamura H, Yoshimoto Kim HY, Kobayashi K. 2001. Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) using pure CO2 injection: system description. New Phytologist 150: 251-260.
references: Pearson PN, Palmer MR. 2000. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years. Nature 406: 695-699.
references: Peng S, Huang J, Sheehy JE, Laza RC, Visperas RM, Zhong X, Centeno GS, Khush GS, Cassman. KG. 2004. Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 101: 9971-9975.
references: Polley HW. 2002. Implications of atmospheric and climatic change for crop yield and water use efficiency. Crop Science 42: 131-140.
references: Prior SA, Runion GB, Rogers HH, Torver HA, Reeves DW. 2005. Elevated atmospheric CO2 effects on biomass production and soil carbon in conventional and conservation cropping systems. Global Change Biology 11: 657-665.
references: Ravi I, Khan FA, Sharma-Natu P, Ghildiyal MC. 2001. Yield response of durum (Triticum durum) and bread wheat (T. aestivum) varieties to carbon dioxide enrichment. Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences 71: 444-449.
references: Rogers HH, Cure JD, Smith JM. 1986. Soybean growth and yield response to elevated carbon dioxide. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 16: 113-128.
references: Rogers HH, Heck WW, Heagle AS. 1983. A field technique for the study of plant responses to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations. Air Pollution Control Association 33: 42-44.
references: Sakai H, Kim HY, Hasegawa T, Kobayashi K. 2004. Rice yield enhancement by elevated CO2 negatively correlates with hastened occurrence of heading - results from five years of chamber studies. In: Fischer T, ed. New Directions for a Diverse Planet: Proceedings for the 4th International Crop Science Congress, Brisbane, Australia, 26 September - 1 October 2004. http://www.cropscience.org.au
references: Schutz M, Fangmeier A. 2001. Growth and yield response of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Minaret) to elevated CO2 and water limitation. Environmental Pollution 114: 187-194.
references: Sionit N, Strain BR, Flint EP. 1987. Interaction of temperature and CO2 enrichment on soybean: photosynthesis and seed yield. Journal of Plant Science 67: 629-636.
references: Teramura AH, Sullivan JH, Ziska LH. 1990. Interaction of elevated ultraviolet-B radiation and CO2 on productivity and photosynthetic characteristics in wheat, rice and soybean. Plant Physiology 94: 470-475.
references: Torbert HA, Prior SA, Rogers HH, Runion GB. 2004. Elevated atmospheric CO2 effects on N fertilization in grain sorghum and soybean. Field Crops Research 88: 57-67.
references: Tubiello FN, Amthor JS, Boote KJ, Donatelli M, Easterling W, Fischer G, Gifford RM, Howden M, Reilly J, Rosenzweig C. 2007. Crop response to elevated CO2 and world food supply: a comment on ‘Food for thought ...’ by Long et al., Science, 312: 1918-21, 2006. European Journal of Agronomy 26: 215-223.
references: Wolf J. 1996. Effects of nutrient supply (NPK) on spring wheat response to elevated atmospheric CO2. Plant and Soil 185: 113-123.
references: Yang L, Huang J, Yang H, Dong G, Liu G, Zhu J, Wang Y. 2006. Seasonal changes in the effects of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) on dry matter production and distribution of rice (Oryza sativa L.). Field Crops Research 98: 12-19.
references: Ziska LH. 2000. The impact of elevated carbon dioxide on yield loss from a C3 and C4 weed in field grown soybean. Global Change Biology 6: 899-905.
references: Ziska LH. 2003. Evaluation of yield loss in field sorghum from a C3 and C4 weed with increasing CO2. Weed Science 51: 914-918.
references: Ziska LH, Bunce JA. 2000. Sensitivity of field-grown soybean to future atmospheric CO2: selection for improved productivity in the 21st century. Australian Journal of Plant Physiology 27: 979-984.
references: Ziska LH, Bunce JA. 2006. Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. In: Morison JIL, Morecroft MD, eds. Plant growth and climate change. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing, 17-47.
references: Ziska LH, Bunce JA, Caulfield FA. 1998. Intraspecific variation in seed yield of soybean (Glycine max) in response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Australian Journal of Plant Physiology 25: 801-808.
references: Ziska LH, Bunce JA, Caulfield FA. 2001. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and seed yield of soybean genotypes. Crop Science 41: 385-391.
references: Ziska LH, Gebhard DE, Frenz DA, Faulkner SS, Singer BD, Straka JG. 2003. Cities as harbingers of climate change: Common ragweed, urbanization, and public health. Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology 111: 290-295.
references: Ziska LH, Goins EG. 2006. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and weed populations in glyphosate treated soybean. Crop Science 46: 1354-1359.
references: Ziska LH, Manalo PA, Ordonez RA. 1996. Intraspecific variation in the response of rice (Oryza sativa L.) to increased CO2 and temperature: growth and yield response of 17 cultivars. Journal of Experimental Botany 47: 1353-1359.
references: Ziska LH, Morris CF, Goins EW. 2004. Quantitative and qualitative evaluation of selected wheat varieties released since 1903 to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide: can yield sensitivity to carbon dioxide be a factor in wheat performance? Global Change Biology 10: 1810-1819.
references: Ziska LH, Teramura AH. 1992. CO2 enhancement of growth and photosynthesis in rice (Oryza sativa). Plant Physiology 99: 473-481.