title: Short-term clinical disease progression in HIV-1-positive patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy: the EuroSIDA risk-score.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To derive and validate a clinically applicable prognostic score for predicting short-term disease progression in HIV-infected patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).
  
  
  METHODS
  Poisson regression was used to identify prognostic markers for new AIDS/death in patients taking cART. A score was derived for 4169 patients from EuroSIDA and validated on 5150 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).
  
  
  RESULTS
  In EuroSIDA, 658 events occurred during 22 321 person-years of follow-up: an incidence rate of 3.0/100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.7-3.3]. Current levels of viral load, CD4 cell count, CD4 cell slope, anaemia, and body mass index all independently predicted new AIDS/death, as did age, exposure group, a prior AIDS diagnosis, prior antiretroviral treatment and stopping all antiretroviral drugs. The EuroSIDA risk-score was divided into four strata; a patient in the lowest strata would have predicted chance of new AIDS/death of 1 in 801, 1 in 401 and 1 in 201 within the next 3, 6 or 12 months, respectively. The corresponding figures for the highest strata were 1 in 17, 1 in 9 and 1 in 5, respectively. A single-unit increase in the risk-score was associated with a 2.70 times higher incidence of clinical progression (95% CI, 2.56-2.84) in EuroSIDA and 2.88 (95% CI, 2.75-3.02) in SHCS.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A clinically relevant prognostic score was derived in EuroSIDA and validated within the SHCS, with good agreement. The EuroSIDA risk-score will be made available publicly via an interface that will perform all calculations for the individual.
authors.affiliation: Department of Primary Care and Population Sciences, Royal Free and University College Medical School, London, UK. a.mocroft@pcps.ucl.ac.uk
authors.forename: Amanda
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mocroft
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Ledergerber
authors.forename: Kai
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Zilmer
authors.forename: Ole
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Kirk
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Hirschel
authors.forename: Jean-Paul
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Viard
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Reiss
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Francioli
authors.forename: Adriano
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lazzarin
authors.forename: Ladislav
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Machala
authors.forename: Andrew N
authors.initials: AN
authors.lastname: Phillips
authors.forename: Jens D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Lundgren
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000150:complications / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality; D000328:Adult; D000740:Anemia / Q000150:complications; D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D015992:Body Mass Index; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D018450:Disease Progression; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality; D006679:HIV Seropositivity / Q000150:complications / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000187:drug effects*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D019562:Viral Load
chemical_list: D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents