title: Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk.
abstract: This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.
authors.affiliation: Det Norske Veritas, Veritasveien 1, N-1322 Høvik, Norway. magnus.strandmyr.eide@dnv.com
authors.forename: Magnus S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Eide
authors.forename: Oyvind
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Endresen
authors.forename: Oyvind
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Breivik
authors.forename: Odd Willy
authors.initials: OW
authors.lastname: Brude
authors.forename: Ingrid H
authors.initials: IH
authors.lastname: Ellingsen
authors.forename: Kjell
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Røang
authors.forename: Jarle
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hauge
authors.forename: Per Olaf
authors.initials: PO
authors.lastname: Brett
mesh_terms: D000062:Accidents, Occupational / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D010578:Petroleum; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012767:Ships; D013997:Time Factors; D014872:Water Movements; D014919:Wind
chemical_list: D010578:Petroleum