[The application of the prospective space-time statistic in early warning of infectious disease].
OBJECTIVE
To investigate the application of prospective space-time scan statistic in the early stage of detecting infectious disease outbreaks.


METHODS
The prospective space-time scan statistic was tested by mimicking daily prospective analyses of bacillary dysentery data of Chengdu city in 2005 (3212 cases in 102 towns and villages). And the results were compared with that of purely temporal scan statistic.


RESULTS
The prospective space-time scan statistic could give specific messages both in spatial and temporal. The results of June indicated that the prospective space-time scan statistic could timely detect the outbreaks that started from the local site, and the early warning message was powerful (P = 0.007). When the merely temporal scan statistic for detecting the outbreak was sent two days later, and the signal was less powerful (P = 0.039).


CONCLUSIONS
The prospective space-time scan statistic could make full use of the spatial and temporal information in infectious disease data and could timely and effectively detect the outbreaks that start from the local sites. The prospective space-time scan statistic could be an important tool for local and national CDC to set up early detection surveillance systems.
Yin
Fei
F
West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, China.
Li
Xiao-Song
XS
Feng
Zi-Jian
ZJ
Ma
Jia-Qi
JQ
D002681:China; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods*; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D011446:Prospective Studies