title: Opportunities and challenges of sustainable agricultural development in China.
abstract: This paper introduces the concepts and aims of sustainable agriculture in China. Sustainable agricultural development comprises sustainability of agricultural production, sustainability of the rural economy, ecological and environmental sustainability within agricultural systems and sustainability of rural society. China's prime aim is to ensure current and future food security. Based on projections of China's population, its economy, societal factors and agricultural resources and inputs between 2000 and 2050, total grain supply and demand has been predicted and the state of food security analysed. Total and per capita demand for grain will increase continuously. Total demand will reach 648 Mt in 2020 and 700 Mt in 2050, while total grain yield of cultivated land will reach 470 Mt in 2010, 585 Mt in 2030 and 656 Mt in 2050. The per capita grain production will be around 360kg in the period 2000-2030 and reach 470kg in 2050. When productivities of cultivated land and other agricultural resources are all taken into consideration, China's food self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 94.4% in 2000 to 101.3% in 2030, suggesting that China will meet its future demand for food and need for food security. Despite this positive assessment, the country's sustainable agricultural development has encountered many obstacles. These include: agricultural water-use shortage; cultivated land loss; inappropriate usage of fertilizers and pesticides, and environmental degradation.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China. jzhao@rcees.ac.cn
authors.forename: Jingzhu
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhao
authors.forename: Qishan
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.forename: Hongbing
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Deng
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Yan
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods* / Q000458:organization & administration; D002681:China; D004787:Environmental Pollution; D005523:Food Supply; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D010571:Pest Control / Q000379:methods; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D014881:Water Supply