Milankovitch radiation variations: a quantitative evaluation.
A quantitative determination of changes in the surface temperature caused by variations in insolation calculated by Milankovitch has been made through the use of the thermodynamic model of Adem. Under extreme conditions, mean coolings of 3.1 degrees and 2.7 degrees C, respectively, at latitudes 25 degrees and 65 degrees N are obtained for Milankovitch radiation cycles. At the sensitive latitude 65 degrees N, a mean cooling below the present temperature for each of the times of radiation minimum is only 1.4 degrees C. This result indicates that the Milankovitch effect is rather small to have triggered glacial climates.
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