title: Viral load as a predictor of outcome in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever.
abstract: Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a potentially fatal disease affecting multiple organ systems. To determine the association between viral load and severity of CCHF infection, quantitative measurement of CCHF virus was performed using 1-step reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for 36 patients with CCHF infection. Viral loads ranged from 1.1x10(3) copies/mL to > or = 9.9x10(9) copies/mL. Nine (25%) of 36 patients died. In 8 of the 9 patients with fatal outcomes, viral loads were detected that were > or = 1x10(9) copies/mL, whereas in 25 of the 26 patients with nonfatal outcomes, viral loads were detected that were < 1x10(9) copies/mL (P<.001). A viral load > or = 1x10(9) RNA copies/mL can be considered to predict a fatal outcome with a positive predictive value of 80%, with 88.9% sensitivity and 92.6% specificity. We suggest that viral load is a measure of the severity of CCHF.
authors.affiliation: Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology Department, Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey.
authors.forename: Mustafa Aydin
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Cevik
authors.forename: Ayşe
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Erbay
authors.forename: Hürrem
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Bodur
authors.forename: Selim Sirri
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Eren
authors.forename: Esragül
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Akinci
authors.forename: Kenan
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sener
authors.forename: Pinar
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ongürü
authors.forename: Ayhan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kubar
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015415:Biomarkers; D005260:Female; D003225:Hemorrhagic Fever Virus, Crimean-Congo / Q000235:genetics / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D006479:Hemorrhagic Fever, Crimean / Q000097:blood*; D006784:Hospitals, Teaching; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D020133:Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D014421:Turkey; D019562:Viral Load