title: Forecasting damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United States.
abstract: Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude >/= 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.
authors.forename: S P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Nishenko
authors.forename: G A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Bollinger