title: Pretreatment nomogram predicting ten-year biochemical outcome of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy and intensity-modulated radiotherapy for prostate cancer.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To update our previously published nomogram predicting for biochemical outcome with 10-year data from a larger cohort of patients treated with three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (RT) or intensity-modulated RT for localized prostate cancer.
  
  
  METHODS
  From 1988 to 2004, 2253 patients were treated with three-dimensional conformal RT or intensity-modulated RT for clinical Stage T1-T3 prostate cancer. Prescription doses ranged from 64.8 to 86.4 Gy. The median follow-up time was 7 years. The nomogram was developed using a proportional hazards regression model predicting for the probability of biochemical relapse after RT according to the nadir plus 2 ng/mL definition of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) relapse.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 10-year PSA relapse-free survival rate was 62%. The nomogram incorporated the following variables to predict likelihood of PSA failure after RT: pretreatment PSA level, Gleason score, radiation dose, use of neoadjuvant androgen deprivation, and clinical stage. The concordance index of this long-term nomogram was 0.72.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A nomogram predicting the 10-year probability of biochemical control after three-dimensional conformal RT or intensity-modulated RT for prostate cancer was reasonably accurate and discriminating. The nomogram also provided evidence that long-term biochemical control can be achieved after conformal RT for the treatment of localized prostate cancer.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10021, USA. zelefskm@mskcc.org
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Zelefsky
authors.forename: Michael W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Kattan
authors.forename: Paul
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Fearn
authors.forename: Bertha L
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: Fearon
authors.forename: Jason P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Stasi
authors.forename: Alison M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Shippy
authors.forename: Peter T
authors.initials: PT
authors.lastname: Scardino
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood*; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood* / Q000532:radiotherapy*; D011879:Radiotherapy Dosage; D020266:Radiotherapy, Conformal / Q000379:methods*; D013997:Time Factors