Applications of additive semivarying coefficient models: monthly suicide data from Hong Kong.
A semivarying coefficient model for the monthly numbers of suicides in Hong Kong is developed and a new estimation procedure for estimating the parametric component is proposed. The estimators are examined in a small simulation study and fitted to monthly suicide data to estimate a nonparametric long-term trend and parametric seasonal and socioeconomic effects. Fitting the model detected interpretable structure in the data that is consistent with that driving public health policy. While exploratory, the analysis motivates the collection of more detailed data and the development of more sophisticated models to help determine target groups and strategies to reduce the suicide rate in Hong Kong.
Huggins
Richard M
RM
Centre for Mathematics and its Applications, Mathematical Sciences Institute, Australian National University, Canberra 0200 ACT, Australia. r.huggins@ms.unimelb.edu.au
Hall
Peter
P
Yip
Paul S F
PS
Bui
Quang M
QM
D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001699:Biometry / Q000379:methods*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D006723:Hong Kong / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013405:Suicide / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000092864:Suicide Prevention