title: Sensitivity of glaciers and small ice caps to greenhouse warming.
abstract: Recent field programs on glaciers have supplied information that makes simulation of glacier mass balance with meteorological models meaningful. An estimate of world-wide glacier sensitivity based on a modeling study of 12 selected glaciers situated in widely differing climatic regimes shows that for a uniform 1 K warming the area-weighted glacier mass balance will decrease by 0.40 meter per year. This corresponds to a sea-level rise of 0.58 millimeter per year, a value significantly less than earlier estimates.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Oerlemans
authors.forename: J P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Fortuin