Predicting the risk of patients with biopsy Gleason score 6 to harbor a higher grade cancer.
OBJECTIVE
Prostate cancer Gleason score 3 + 3 = 6 is currently the most common score assigned on prostatic biopsies. We analyzed the clinical variables that predict the likelihood of a patient with biopsy Gleason score 6 to harbor a higher grade tumor.


METHODS
The study population consisted of 448 patients with a mean age of 59.1 years who underwent radical prostatectomy between February 2003 to October 2006 for Gleason score 6 adenocarcinoma. The effect of preoperative variables on the probability of a Gleason score upgrade on final pathological evaluation was evaluated using logistic regression, and classification and regression tree analysis.


RESULTS
Gleason score upgrade was found in 91 of 448 patients (20.3%). Logistic regression showed that only serum prostate specific antigen and the greatest percent of cancer in a core were significantly associated with a score upgrade (p = 0.0014 and 0.023, respectively). Classification and regression tree analysis showed that the risk of a Gleason score upgrade was 62% when serum prostate specific antigen was higher than 12 ng/ml and 18% when serum prostate specific antigen was 12 ng/ml or less. In patients with serum prostate specific antigen lower than 12 ng/ml the risk of a score upgrade could be dichotomized at a greatest percent of cancer in a core of 5%. The risk was 22.6% and 10.5% when the greatest percent of cancer in a core was higher than 5% and 5% or lower, respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
The probability of patients with a prostate biopsy Gleason score of 6 to conceal a Gleason score of 7 or higher can be predicted using serum prostate specific antigen and the greatest percent of cancer in a core. With these parameters it is possible to predict upgrade rates as high as 62% and as low as 10.5%.
Gofrit
Ofer N
ON
Department of Surgery, Section of Urology, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA. ong1000@netvision.net.il
Zorn
Kevin C
KC
Taxy
Jerome B
JB
Lin
Shang
S
Zagaja
Gregory P
GP
Steinberg
Gary D
GD
Shalhav
Arieh L
AL
D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000097:blood / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor / Q000097:blood; D001706:Biopsy; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D010535:Laparoscopy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood; D011468:Prostatectomy / Q000379:methods; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood / Q000473:pathology* / Q000601:surgery; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors
D014408:Biomarkers, Tumor; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen