title: Limitations of ejection fraction for prediction of sudden death risk in patients with coronary artery disease: lessons from the MUSTT study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We determined the contribution of multiple variables to predict arrhythmic death and total mortality risk in patients with coronary disease and left ventricular dysfunction. We then constructed an algorithm to predict risk of mortality and sudden death.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Many factors in addition to ejection fraction (EF) influence the prognosis of patients with coronary disease. However, there are few tools to use this information to guide clinical decisions.
  
  
  METHODS
  We evaluated the relationship between 25 variables and total mortality and arrhythmic death in 674 patients enrolled in the MUSTT (Multicenter Unsustained Tachycardia Trial) study that did not receive antiarrhythmic therapy. We then constructed risk-stratification algorithms to weight the prognostic impact of each variable on arrhythmic death and total mortality risk.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The variables having the greatest prognostic impact in multivariable analysis were functional class, history of heart failure, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia not related to bypass surgery, EF, age, left ventricular conduction abnormalities, inducible sustained ventricular tachycardia, enrollment as an inpatient, and atrial fibrillation. The model demonstrates that patients whose only risk factor is EF < or =30% have a predicted 2-year arrhythmic death risk <5%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Multiple variables influence arrhythmic death and total mortality risk. Patients with EF < or =30% but no other risk factor have low predicted mortality risk. Patients with EF >30% and other risk factors may have higher mortality and a higher risk of sudden death than some patients with EF < or =30%. Thus, risk of sudden death in patients with coronary disease depends on multiple variables in addition to EF.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Cardiology Division, Brown Medical School and Lifespan Academic Medical Center, Providence, Rhode Island 02905, USA. alfred_buxton@brown.edu
authors.forename: Alfred E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Buxton
authors.forename: Kerry L
authors.initials: KL
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Gail E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Hafley
authors.forename: Luis A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Pires
authors.forename: John D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Fisher
authors.forename: Michael R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Gold
authors.forename: Mark E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Josephson
authors.forename: Michael H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Lehmann
authors.forename: Eric N
authors.initials: EN
authors.lastname: Prystowsky
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000889:Anti-Arrhythmia Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002423:Cause of Death; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D016757:Death, Sudden, Cardiac / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017147:Defibrillators, Implantable; D005260:Female; D006323:Heart Arrest / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013318:Stroke Volume; D017180:Tachycardia, Ventricular / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy*
chemical_list: D000889:Anti-Arrhythmia Agents