Psychometric assessment of dynamic risk factors for child molesters.
To explore the relationship between dynamic risk factors and recidivism in child molesters, we studied a sample of men (N=495) who completed an intensive, prison-based treatment program in New Zealand. During the follow-up period (M=5.8 years), 9.9% were reconvicted for a sexual offense. A self-report psychometric battery was administered at pre-treatment that assessed a range of variables related to sexual attitudes and beliefs, emotional functioning, and interpersonal competency. Factor analysis showed that individual differences in the battery could be described by four dimensions-Social Inadequacy, Sexual Interests, Anger/Hostility, and Pro-Offending Attitudes. Factor scores for each dimension were significantly correlated with sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses confirmed that the Sexual Interests and Pro-Offending Attitudes factor scores, as well as an Overall Deviance score which combined the dimensions, provided significant additional validity for predicting recidivism beyond the Static-99 (Hanson and Thornton Law and Human Behavior 24:119-136, 2000). When added to the Static-99, the Overall Deviance score increased the area under the Receiver-Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.72 to 0.81. These results show that psychometric self-reports can provide valid measures of dynamic risk factors, and that inclusion of such measures can improve risk prediction beyond that achievable by static factors alone.
Allan
Michael
M
Department of Psychology, University of Canterbury, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand. mike.allan@cdhb.govt.nz
Grace
Randolph C
RC
Rutherford
Bronwyn
B
Hudson
Stephen M
SM
D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002650:Child Abuse, Sexual / Q000523:psychology / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005555:Forensic Psychiatry / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009520:New Zealand; D010342:Patient Acceptance of Health Care / Q000523:psychology; D011329:Prisoners / Q000523:psychology*; D011594:Psychometrics; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D016896:Treatment Outcome