[Long-term time series analysis of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis in Okinawa Prefecture, Japan].
OBJECTIVE
Epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC) is a highly infectious disease caused by an adenovirus and is associated with nosocomial or endemic infections. In a series analysis before 1993, we predicted that EKC patients would decrease in Okinawa. We analyzed the number of EKC patients after 1993 in the same area to confirm the compatibility between measured and predicted epidemic curves.


METHODS
The numbers of EKC patients reported by the National Epidemic Surveillance Report of Japan between 1993 and 2003 in Okinawa were analyzed by time series analysis.


RESULTS
The epidemic curve showed a peak in late 1995 and the number decreased thereafter. Among epidemic tendency curves, an exponential curve fitted best to the measured curve and this result was compatible with our past prediction.


CONCLUSIONS
The similarity of the epidemic curve analyzed by long-term time series analysis and the previously predicted curve of EKC in Okinawa, Japan, supports the epidemiological hypothesis that Okinawa is an epidemiologically isolated island for EKC, and its population can be deemed a theoretical epidemiologically closed group.
Inoue
Hirotoshi
H
Department of Ophthalmology, Fukuoka University School of Medicine, Japan. ganka@minf.med.fukuoka-u.ac.jp
Kadonosono
Kazuaki
K
Kakazu
Yasuaki
Y
Taira
Takeyasu
T
Uchio
Eiichi
E
D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D007637:Keratoconjunctivitis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D013997:Time Factors