title: Mesothelioma mortality in men: trends during 1977-2001 and projections for 2002-2016 in Spain.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate mesothelioma death trends in Spain and to predict the number of future cases of mesothelioma.
  
  
  METHODS
  After descriptive analysis of mesothelioma mortality data, an age-period-cohort model was applied to estimate future mesothelioma deaths.
  
  
  RESULTS
  From 1977 to 2001, 1928 men over 35 years of age died of mesothelioma in Spain. Projections indicate that 1321 men are expected to die from mesothelioma between 2007 and 2016.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It is expected that mesothelioma deaths will increase at least until 2016. Available data do not allow prediction of the year when mortality will start to decrease.
authors: Occupational Health Research Unit, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain. Silvia.pitarque@upf.edu
authors: S
authors: S
authors: Pitarque
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Clèries
authors: J M
authors: JM
authors: Martínez
authors: G
authors: G
authors: López-Abente
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Kogevinas
authors: F G
authors: FG
authors: Benavides
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008654:Mesothelioma / Q000401:mortality*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D010997:Pleural Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology