title: Predictive value of lung function below the normal range and respiratory symptoms for progression of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an insidiously starting disease. Early detection has high priority because of the possibility of early implementation of smoking cessation interventions. An evidence based model for case finding of COPD is not yet available.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To describe the early development of COPD, and to assess the predictive value of early signs (respiratory symptoms, lung function below the normal range, reversibility).
  
  
  METHODS
  In a prospective study, based in general practice, formerly undiagnosed subjects (n = 464) were assessed at baseline and at 5 years for respiratory symptoms and pulmonary function. Odds ratios for early signs were calculated (adjusted for age, gender, pack-years at baseline and smoking behaviour during follow-up), and defined as possible indicators of disease progression.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Over a 5 year period, the percentage of subjects with obstruction increased from 7.5% (n = 35) at baseline to 24.8% (n = 115) at 5 years. The presence of mild early signs and lung function below the normal range at baseline were related to an increased risk of developing mild to moderate COPD (GOLD I: OR 1.87 (95% CI 1.22 to 2.87); GOLD II: OR 2.08 (95% CI 1.29 to 3.37) to 2.54 (95% CI 1.25 to 5.19)) at 5 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Lung function below the normal range and early respiratory signs predict the development and progression of COPD.
authors: Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Centre, Department of Primary Care [117-HAG], PO Box 9101, 6500 HB Nijmegen, The Netherlands. m.albers@hag.umcn.nl
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Albers
authors: T
authors: T
authors: Schermer
authors: Y
authors: Y
authors: Heijdra
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Molema
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Akkermans
authors: C
authors: C
authors: van Weel
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005541:Forced Expiratory Volume / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D012120:Respiration Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D012907:Smoking / Q000503:physiopathology; D014797:Vital Capacity / Q000502:physiology