Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics.
For >1,000 years, Chinese officials have recorded the annual abundance of the oriental migratory locust Locusta migratoria manilensis, with the ultimate aim of predicting locust outbreaks. Linking these records with temperature and precipitation reconstructions for the period 957-1956, we show that decadal mean locust abundance is highest during cold and wet periods. These periods coincide with above-average frequencies of both floods and droughts in the lower Yangtze River, phenomena that are associated with locust outbreaks. Our results imply differential ecological responses to interdecadal and interannual climatic variability. Such frequency-dependent effects deserve increased attention in global warming studies.
Stige
Leif Christian
LC
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, PO Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
Chan
Kung-Sik
KS
Zhang
Zhibin
Z
Frank
David
D
Stenseth
Nils C
NC
D000818:Animals; D002681:China; D002909:Chronobiology Phenomena; D002980:Climate; D004190:Disasters; D017753:Ecosystem; D006110:Grasshoppers / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013997:Time Factors