title: Estimated and observed cancer incidence in Italy: a validation study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The study aimed to validate model-based incidence estimates by means of observed incidence rates provided by Italian cancer registries, for five major cancer sites (stomach, colon and rectum, lung, breast and prostate cancers) and for all cancers together.
  
  
  METHODS
  Recent incidence rates observed by Italian population-based cancer registries were extracted from the data base of the Italian Association of Cancer Registries. Regional estimates of incidence rates for the same cancers were obtained by the MIAMOD method. Observed and estimated crude incidence rates and incidence trends were compared for the period of diagnosis 1985-2000. Eight Italian cancer registries and seven regions were selected for the analysis since they had incidence data available during the entire selected period.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  An excellent agreement between estimated and observed crude incidence rates was found for all single cancer sites, regarding absolute incidence levels and time trends. A partial exception was breast, where empirical data showed a sudden increase in the last three years of observation, perhaps due to organized screenings in some Italian regions, and not captured by statistical models. Substantial underestimation of model-based incidence rates was found for all cancers combined, where the difference tended to increase with calendar year, up to a maximum of 20% in recent years. The greatest part of the discrepancy can be attributed to multiple cancers, which were included in cancer registries statistics but were not accounted for in MIAMOD estimates.
authors: Reparto di Epidemiologia dei Tumori, Centro Nazionale di Epidemiologia, Sorveglianza e Promozione della Salute, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy. riccardo.capocaccia@iss.it
authors: Riccardo
authors: R
authors: Capocaccia
authors: Carlotta
authors: C
authors: Buzzoni
authors: Enrico
authors: E
authors: Grande
authors: Riccardo
authors: R
authors: Inghelmann
authors: Francesco
authors: F
authors: Bellù
authors: Tiziana
authors: T
authors: Cassetti
authors: Margherita
authors: M
authors: de Dottori
authors: Andrea
authors: A
authors: Donato
authors: Vincenzo
authors: V
authors: De Lisi
authors: Fabio
authors: F
authors: Falcini
authors: Massimo
authors: M
authors: Federico
authors: Stefano
authors: S
authors: Ferretti
authors: Mario
authors: M
authors: Fusco
authors: Adriano
authors: A
authors: Giacomin
authors: Stefano
authors: S
authors: Guzzinati
authors: Lucia
authors: L
authors: Mangone
authors: Silvano
authors: S
authors: Piffer
authors: Stefano
authors: S
authors: Rosso
authors: Ornella
authors: O
authors: Sechi
authors: Giovanna
authors: G
authors: Tagliabue
authors: Rosario
authors: R
authors: Tumino
authors: Marina
authors: M
authors: Vercelli
authors: Susanna
authors: S
authors: Vitarelli
mesh_terms: D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology; D012042:Registries; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology