Risk of intracranial aneurysm bleeding in autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease.
Patients with autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) carry an increased risk of developing intracranial aneurysms. Bleeding from these sites is a significant complication with the events reported to cluster in some families. In this study we determined if individualized risk of aneurysm rupture can be estimated based on family history using a Bayesian random effects model. Previously reported data were used to define distributions and to construct a model that fit these data. Our results confirm that intracerebral aneurysm bleeding in ADPKD patients tends to cluster in families and that basic family history can provide a simple estimate of family-specific risk.
Ring
T
T
Department of Nephrology, Aalborg Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark. tring@gvdnet.dk
Spiegelhalter
D
D
D017542:Aneurysm, Ruptured / Q000209:etiology* / Q000235:genetics; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D006801:Humans; D002532:Intracranial Aneurysm / Q000209:etiology* / Q000235:genetics; D008487:Medical History Taking; D010375:Pedigree; D016891:Polycystic Kidney, Autosomal Dominant / Q000150:complications* / Q000235:genetics; D012307:Risk Factors