[Study on the incidence and spatiotemporal dynamic variation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong province].
OBJECTIVE
To study the incidence and spatiotemporal dynamic variation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Shandong province.


METHODS
According to surveillance data on HFRS epidemics and host animals, a 'contour area multifractal model' was estimated on the HFRS' incidence and multi-analysis model was applied to study spatiotemporal dynamic variation.


RESULTS
The process could be classified into 5 periods: 1st period (1974-1981) when HFRS was in completely natural focal state in Shandong, and the nature of focus was typical Apodemus type. 2nd period (1982-1986) indicated the process of expanding and merging of the Apodemus type focus in the southeastern part of Linyi district and the Rattus type focus was in the southern part of Jining city. 3rd period (1987-1990) indicated that through the expanding and merging of the two epidemic focuses,one mixed focus dominated by the Apodemus type had been formed in the hilly area of the southern and middle part of Shandong while another one dominated by the Rattus type in the Yellow River valley of the northwestern part of Shandong. 4th period (1991-1993) showed that the process of the spatial pattern of the mixed focus dominated by the Rattus type in Shandong. 5th period (1994-2004) referred to the spatial pattern of the mixed focus dominated by the Rattus became stabilized.


CONCLUSIONS
Evolution of the characteristics of HFRS focus in Shandong province experienced the following three processes: the simple Apodemus type and the simple Rattus type were seen separately to the mixed foci with the Apodemus type dominant and the Rattus dominant type coexisted and merged to the stable state of the mixed focus with Rattus as the dominant one.
Kand
Dian-min
DM
Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China.
Wang
Zhi-qiang
ZQ
Fu
Ji-hua
JH
Yuan
Qun
Q
Chen
Ren-you
RY
Zhang
Xiao-fei
XF
Guo
Jie
J
Fan
Yi-ou
YO
Xue
Fu-zhong
FZ
Wang
Jie-zhen
JZ
D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence