title: Effects of climate on West Nile Virus transmission risk used for public health decision-making in Quebec.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In 2002, major human epidemics of West Nile Virus (WNV) were reported in five cities in the North East region of North America. The present analysis examines the climatic conditions that were conducive to the WNV epidemic, in order to provide information to public health managers who eventually must decide on the implementation of a preventive larvicide spraying program in Quebec, Canada. Two sets of variables, the first observed in the summer of 2002 and the second in the preceding winter were analysed to study their potential as explanatory variables for the emergence of the virus at epidemic levels.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Results show that the climatic conditions observed in the year 2002 have contributed to the emergence of the virus and can be observed once every forty years on average. The analysis has shown that the 2002 events observed in several North East North American cities are characterized by two main variables: the number of degree-days below -5 degrees C in the winter (DD-5) and the number of degree-days greater than 25 degrees C in the summer (DD25).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In the context of a declining rate of human and aviary infection to WNV, this element contributed to the decision to suspend the use of preventive larvicides in the province of Quebec in 2006 and for the foreseeable future. The second part of this study indicates that it is very important to estimate the risk that extreme values can be observed simultaneously in the summer and in the winter preceding the appearance of the virus. The proposed models provide important information to public health officials, weeks before the appearance of the virus, and can therefore be useful to help prevent human epidemics.
authors: Hydro-Quebec/NSERC Chair in Statistical Hydrology, Canada Research Chair on the Estimation of Hydrological Variables, University of Quebec, INRS-ETE, 490, de la Couronne, Quebec (QC) G1K 9A9, CANADA. salaheddine_el-adlouni@ete.inrs.ca
authors: Salaheddine
authors: S
authors: El Adlouni
authors: Claudie
authors: C
authors: Beaulieu
authors: Taha B M J
authors: TB
authors: Ouarda
authors: Pierre L
authors: PL
authors: Gosselin
authors: André
authors: A
authors: Saint-Hilaire
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003657:Decision Making; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D011336:Probability; D011634:Public Health; D011792:Quebec / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors; D014901:West Nile Fever / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*