Decisions among time saving options: when intuition is strong and wrong.
When people judge the time that can be saved by increasing the speed of an activity, they are often victims of a time saving bias. That is, they overestimate the time that can be saved by increasing the speed. Judgments of time savings following speed increase when driving follow the Proportion heuristic [Svenson, O. (1970). A functional measurement approach to intuitive estimation as exemplified by estimated time savings. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 86, 204-210]. In a choice between time saving options, this heuristic simplifies to the Ratio rule. The first study tested this rule and found that the Ratio rule predicted incorrect decisions when planning to save traveling time in road traffic. The second study showed that the time saving bias was also present in planning of health care; to specify, in decisions about which one of two clinics to reorganize to save more of the doctors' time for personal contacts with patients. To further test the Ratio rule, Study 3 used a matching procedure in which two decision alternatives were made equal by the participants. The results supported the Ratio rule. Practical implications of the results are discussed including the Planning fallacy. In conclusion, the present set of studies have illustrated a time saving bias and provided evidence explaining why people make systematic errors when judging and deciding about time saved following a speed increase.
Svenson
Ola
O
Risk Analysis, Social and Decision Research Unit, Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. osn@psychology.su.se
D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000523:psychology; D003071:Cognition / Q000502:physiology; D003657:Decision Making / Q000502:physiology*; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000458:organization & administration; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D019545:Intuition / Q000502:physiology*; D007600:Judgment / Q000502:physiology*; D007858:Learning / Q000502:physiology; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D013334:Students / Q000523:psychology; D013995:Time