title: Contributory factors to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong.
abstract: Efficient geometric design and signal timing not only improve operational performance at signalized intersections by expanding capacity and reducing traffic delays, but also result in an appreciable reduction in traffic conflicts, and thus better road safety. Information on the incidence of crashes, traffic flow, geometric design, road environment, and traffic control at 262 signalized intersections in Hong Kong during 2002 and 2003 are incorporated into a crash prediction model. Poisson regression and negative binomial regression are used to quantify the influence of possible contributory factors on the incidence of killed and severe injury (KSI) crashes and slight injury crashes, respectively, while possible interventions by traffic flow are controlled. The results for the incidence of slight injury crashes reveal that the road environment, degree of curvature, and presence of tram stops are significant factors, and that traffic volume has a diminishing effect on the crash risk. The presence of tram stops, number of pedestrian streams, road environment, proportion of commercial vehicles, average lane width, and degree of curvature increase the risk of KSI crashes, but the effect of traffic volume is negligible.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong, China. hhecwsc@hkucc.hku.hk
authors.forename: S C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.forename: N N
authors.initials: NN
authors.lastname: Sze
authors.forename: Y C
authors.initials: YC
authors.lastname: Li
mesh_terms: D000056:Accident Prevention / Q000379:methods / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002958:City Planning; D004779:Environment Design; D006723:Hong Kong / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D014186:Transportation