title: Estimation of the direction of the coupling by conditional probabilities of recurrence.
abstract: We introduce a method to detect and quantify the asymmetry of the coupling between two interacting systems based on their recurrence properties. This method can detect the direction of the coupling in weakly as well as strongly coupled systems. It even allows detecting the asymmetry of the coupling in the more challenging case of structurally different systems and it is very robust against noise. We also address the problem of detecting the asymmetry of the coupling in passive experiments, i.e., when the strength of the coupling cannot be systematically changed, which is of great relevance for the analysis of experimental time series.
authors.affiliation: College of Physical Sciences, King's College, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UE, United Kingdom. m.romano@abdn.ac.uk
authors.forename: M Carmen
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Romano
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Thiel
authors.forename: Jürgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kurths
authors.forename: Celso
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Grebogi