title: Predictors of blood pressure in a cohort of school-aged children.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To examine anthropometric measures and birthweight as predictors of blood pressure (BP) in a cohort of children.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cross-sectional and longitudinal study comprising baseline anthropometric and BP measurements conducted in 1994 (n=1230), with follow-up in 1997 (n=628).
  
  
  METHODS
  Seventy-five inner-Sydney primary schools.
  
  
  METHODS
  School children aged 8-9 years at baseline and 11-12 years at follow-up.
  
  
  METHODS
  Systolic and diastolic BP (SBP and DBP).
  
  
  METHODS
  Current weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-height ratio (WHR), weight gain since birth and birth weight. Potential confounders: age, sex and socioeconomic status (on the basis of the area of residence).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Current weight was significantly associated with both SBP and DBP in boys and girls at baseline and follow-up. BMI and WC were similar predictors of SBP and DBP in each survey, but longitudinal BMI change has a stronger association with SBP (r=0.43, P<0.001) and DBP (r=0.26, P<0.001) than changes in WC (r=0.18, P<0.001 for SBP and r=0.16, P<0.001 for DBP) and WHR in boys with the similar results for girls. The unadjusted associations between SBP and DBP and birthweight were nonsignificant. After adjustments for age, height and socioeconomic status, however, the association becomes negative and significant in boys (beta=-1.47, P=0.04 for SBP and beta=-1.33, P=0.03 for DBP).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Longitudinal change in BMI is a better predictor of BP than change in WC or the WHR, although cross-sectional measurements of BMI and WC are very similar predictors of BP. In preventing subsequent adverse effects on BP, attending to body weight during childhood is important.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia. mirzaeim@health.usyd.edu.au
authors.forename: Masoud
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mirzaei
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Morrell
authors.forename: Stephen R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Leeder
mesh_terms: D001794:Blood Pressure / Q000502:physiology*; D001835:Body Weight; D002648:Child; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male