title: The anatomy of predator-prey dynamics in a changing climate.
abstract: Humans are increasingly influencing global climate and regional predator assemblages, yet a mechanistic understanding of how climate and predation interact to affect fluctuations in prey populations is currently lacking. Here we develop a modelling framework to explore the effects of different predation strategies on the response of age-structured prey populations to a changing climate. We show that predation acts in opposition to temporal correlation in climatic conditions to suppress prey population fluctuations. Ambush predators such as lions are shown to be more effective at suppressing fluctuations in their prey than cursorial predators such as wolves, which chase down prey over long distances, because they are more effective predators on prime-aged adults. We model climate as a Markov process and explore the consequences of future changes in climatic autocorrelation for population dynamics. We show that the presence of healthy predator populations will be particularly important in dampening prey population fluctuations if temporal correlation in climatic conditions increases in the future.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA. cwilmers@ucsc.edu
authors.forename: Christopher C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Wilmers
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Post
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hastings
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D020387:Food Chain; D008390:Markov Chains; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011235:Predatory Behavior / Q000502:physiology*