title: Potential impact of an introduction of foot-and-mouth disease into the California State Fair.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) if infected livestock had been exhibited at the 2005 California State Fair.
  
  
  METHODS
  Epidemic model.
  
  
  METHODS
  Dairy cattle, dairy goats, and pygmy goats exhibited between August 24 and August 28 by 195 exhibitors.
  
  
  METHODS
  2 stochastic models were used to simulate epidemics of FMD that might originate from 1, 3, 5, 7, or 10 index cases at the state fair. Data obtained from state fair exhibitors were used to determine the spatial distribution and types of herds to which livestock visiting the state fair returned.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Mean estimated numbers of latently infected animals on day 5 were 12.3 and 75.9, respectively, when it was assumed that there were 1 and 10 index cases. Regardless of the number of index cases, mean estimated numbers of subclinically infected and clinically infected animals were low throughout the 5-day study period. Mean estimated duration of the resulting epidemic ranged from 111 to 155 days, mean number of infected premises ranged from 33 to 244, and mean probability that at least 1 animal that became infected with FMD would subsequently leave the state ranged from 28% to 96% as the number of index cases increased from 1 to 10, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Results suggested that following introduction of FMD at the California State Fair, infection would likely go undetected until after animals left the fair and that the subsequent outbreak would spread rapidly.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine and Epidemiology and the Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance (CADMS), School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
authors.forename: Tim E
authors.initials: TE
authors.lastname: Carpenter
authors.forename: Lasse E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Christiansen
authors.forename: Bradley F
authors.initials: BF
authors.lastname: Dickey
authors.forename: Clair
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Thunes
authors.forename: Pamela J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Hullinger
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002140:California / Q000453:epidemiology; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D015511:Goat Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D006041:Goats; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D013997:Time Factors; D014186:Transportation