title: [Comparison of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na scores for predicting short term mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  MELD-Na (model for end-stage liver disease with incorporation of serum sodium) was suggested to provide better survival prediction than MELD alone for patients with end stage liver disease. However, there is no data verifying the usefulness of MELD-Na for predicting short term mortality of cirrhotic patients in Korea. This study was aimed to determine whether MELD-Na would be more accurate in predicting short term mortality than other scoring systems such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) or MELD.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from 355 patients admitted due to liver cirrhosis were retrospectively reviewed. The cumulative survival rates were obtained. Prediction of mortality rate for three months and one year were analyzed using the area under the receiver's operating characteristics curve (AUC).
  
  
  RESULTS
  One hundred patients (28%) died during the study period. All of the three systems showed significant differences in the cumulative survival rate according to the scores on admission (p0.001). The AUC of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na in predicting three-months mortality were 0.828, 0.845, and 0.862 (p0.05), and the AUC of each score system for death within one year were 0.792, 0.800, and 0.831, respectively (p0.05). The AUC of MELD-Na in predicting short term death were the highest, although it was not statistically significant. Multivariate analysis showed that only MELD-Na was significantly related to three-month mortality (p=0.012).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  MELD-Na is more appropriate in predicting short term mortality, but larger scale studies are needed to confirm the superiority of MELD-Na to MELD and CTP in patients with liver cirrhosis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Se Yune
authors.initials: SY
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Hyung Joon
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Yim
authors.forename: Juneyoung
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Beom Jae
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Dong Il
authors.initials: DI
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Sung Woo
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Jung
authors.forename: Woo Sik
authors.initials: WS
authors.lastname: Han
authors.forename: Jong Sup
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Ja Seol
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Koo
authors.forename: Yeon Seok
authors.initials: YS
authors.lastname: Seo
authors.forename: Jong Eun
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Yeon
authors.forename: Hong Sik
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Sang Woo
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Soon Ho
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Um
authors.forename: Kwan Soo
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Byun
authors.forename: Jai Hyun
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Choi
authors.forename: Ho Sang
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Ryu
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013997:Time Factors