title: Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.
abstract: This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.
authors.affiliation: Center for Technology and Systems Management, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA. ba@umd.edu
authors.forename: Bilal M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Ayyub
authors.forename: William L
authors.initials: WL
authors.lastname: McGill
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kaminskiy
mesh_terms: D015386:Hazardous Substances; D006801:Humans; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment
chemical_list: D015386:Hazardous Substances