title: Risk factors associated with adverse outcomes in a population-based prospective cohort study of people with their first diabetic foot ulcer.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to determine which clinic-based measures of diabetes and foot status at baseline were associated with adverse outcomes 18 months later in people with diabetes presenting with their first foot ulcer.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a prospective population-based cohort study of adults with type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus presenting with their first foot ulcer (excluding those with severe ischaemia, ankle brachial pressure index <0.5). The main explanatory variables were age, sex, smoking status, ulcer site (dorsal or plantar), size and severity of ulcer, severity of neuropathy, ischaemia, glycosylated haemoglobin, presence of micro- and macrovascular complications, and depression. The main outcomes recorded were death, amputation and recurrence of ulceration, and the time taken for each outcome to occur.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Two hundred fifty-three people were recruited. There were 40 deaths (15.8%), 36 amputations (15.5%), and 99 recurrences (43.2%) at 18 months. Our main findings were that being older [hazard ratio (HR) 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.11], having lower glycosylated haemoglobin (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.56-0.96), moderate ischaemia (HR 2.74, 95% CI 1.46-5.14), and depression (HR 2.51, 95% CI 1.33-4.73) were associated with mortality. Ulcer severity was the only explanatory factor significantly associated with amputation (HR 3.18, 95% CI 1.53-6.59). Microvascular complications were the only explanatory factor associated with recurrent ulceration (HR 3.34, 95% CI 1.17-9.56).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Commonly used primary and secondary care clinic-based measures could provide the basis for a risk assessment tool for adverse outcomes following first presentation of diabetic foot ulcers.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychological Medicine, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, Weston Education Centre, SE5 9RJ, London, UK. kirsty.winkley@nhs.net
authors.forename: Kirsty
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Winkley
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Stahl
authors.forename: Trudie
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Chalder
authors.forename: Michael E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Edmonds
authors.forename: Khalida
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ismail
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000671:Amputation, Surgical; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000150:complications; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications; D003925:Diabetic Angiopathies / Q000453:epidemiology; D017719:Diabetic Foot / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery / Q000628:therapy*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin