title: A contemporary prognostic nomogram for men with hormone-refractory metastatic prostate cancer: a TAX327 study analysis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a prognostic model and nomogram using baseline clinical variables to predict death among men with metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer (HRPC).
  
  
  METHODS
  TAX327 was a clinical trial that randomized 1,006 men with metastatic HRPC to receive every three week or weekly docetaxel or mitoxantrone, each with prednisone. We developed a multivariate Cox model and nomogram to predict survival at 1, 2, and 5 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Ten independent prognostic factors other than treatment group were identified in multivariate analysis: (a) presence of liver metastases [hazard ratio (HR), 1.66; P = 0.019], (b) number of metastatic sites (HR, 1.63 if > or =2 sites; P = 0.001), (c) clinically significant pain (HR, 1.48; P < 0.0001), (d) Karnofsky performance status (HR, 1.39 if < or =70; P = 0.016), (e) type of progression (HR, 1.37 for measurable disease progression and 1.29 for bone scan progression; P = 0.005 and 0.01, respectively), (f) pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time (HR, 1.19 if <55 days; P = 0.066), (g) PSA (HR, 1.17 per log rise; P < 0.0001), (h) tumor grade (HR, 1.18 for high grade; P = 0.069), (i) alkaline phosphatase (HR, 1.27 per log rise; P < 0.0001), and (j) hemoglobin (HR, 1.11 per unit decline; P = 0.004). A nomogram was developed based on this multivariate model and validated internally using bootstrap methods, with a concordance index of 0.69.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This multivariate model identified several new independent prognostic factors in men with metastatic HRPC, including PSA doubling time, and led to the successful development of a clinically applicable nomogram. External prospective validation may support the wider use of this prognostic baseline model for men with HRPC treated with chemotherapy.
authors.affiliation: Duke Comprehensive Cancer Center, Durham, North Carolina 27705, USA. andrew.armstrong@duke.edu
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Armstrong
authors.forename: Elizabeth S
authors.initials: ES
authors.lastname: Garrett-Mayer
authors.forename: Yi-Chun Ou
authors.initials: YC
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Ronald
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: de Wit
authors.forename: Ian F
authors.initials: IF
authors.lastname: Tannock
authors.forename: Mario
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Eisenberger
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000971:Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000077143:Docetaxel; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007700:Kinetics; D008297:Male; D008942:Mitoxantrone / Q000008:administration & dosage; D009362:Neoplasm Metastasis; D049451:Nomograms; D011241:Prednisone / Q000008:administration & dosage; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000378:metabolism; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D016019:Survival Analysis; D043823:Taxoids / Q000008:administration & dosage; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D043823:Taxoids; D000077143:Docetaxel; D008942:Mitoxantrone; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen; D011241:Prednisone