title: Risk index for death by infective endocarditis: a multivariate logistic model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study aimed at identifying predictive variables for in-hospital mortality, calculating the probability of death and creating a risk index for death by infective endocarditis by comparing two methods using a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective study was conducted of 186 consecutive cases of confirmed infective endocarditis divided into two groups: discharged (137) and in-hospital death (49). Based on the odds ratios obtained by multivariate analysis, the probability of death was calculated and a mortality risk index created.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Factors predictive of higher mortality (multivariate analysis) and the risk index, with their respective weights were: age >or= 40 years (OR = 4.16; 95%CI [1.63-10.80] - 4 points), class IV heart failure or cardiovascular shock (OR = 4.93; 95%CI [1.86-13.05] - 5 points), uncontrolled sepsis (OR = 5.97; 95%CI [1.95-18.35] - 6 points), conduction disorder (OR = 5.07; 95%CI [1.67-15.35] - 5 points), arrhythmia (OR = 8.17; 95%CI [2.60-25.71] - 8 points), valve with extensive damage or abscess or prosthesis (OR = 4.77; 95%CI [1.44-15.76] - 5 points) and large and mobile vegetation (OR = 4.36; 95%CI [1.55-12.90] - 4 points). Patients with scores between 0 and 10 had a mortality of 5.26% and scores over 20 of 78.9%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The higher the score, the higher the mortality rate. The mortality risk index may be used to estimate mortality in Infective Endocarditis.
authors.affiliation: Hospital de Clínicas, Federal University in Paraná- Brazil Rua General Carneiro,181, Curitiba. drmarioaugusto@uol.com.br
authors.forename: Mário Augusto Cray da
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Costa
authors.forename: Darley Rugery
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Wollmann
authors.forename: Antonio Carlos Ligoski
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Campos
authors.forename: Cláudio Leinig Pereira da
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Cunha
authors.forename: Roberto Gomes de
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Carvalho
authors.forename: Dalton Francisco de
authors.initials: DF
authors.lastname: Andrade
authors.forename: Danton Richilin Rocha
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Loures
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D004697:Endocarditis, Bacterial / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality* / Q000628:therapy; D015340:Epidemiologic Research Design; D005260:Female; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012770:Shock, Cardiogenic / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality; D013223:Statistics as Topic