title: Prediction of glucose excursions under uncertain parameters and food intake in intensive insulin therapy for type 1 diabetes mellitus.
abstract: Considering the difficulty in the insulin dosage selection and the problem of hyper-and hypoglycaemia episodes in type 1 diabetes, dosage-aid systems appear as tremendously helpful for these patients. A model-based approach to this problem must unavoidably consider uncertainty sources such as the large intra-patient variability and food intake. This work addresses the prediction of glycaemia for a given insulin therapy face to parametric and input uncertainty, by means of modal interval analysis. As result, a band containing all possible glucose excursions suffered by the patient for the given uncertainty is obtained. From it, a safer prediction of possible hyper-and hypoglycaemia episodes can be calculated.
authors.affiliation: Institut d'Informatica i Aplicacions, University of Girona, Girona, Spain. remei.calm@udg.es
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Calm
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: García-Jaramillo
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Vehí
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bondia
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Tarín
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: García-Gabín
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis*; D002241:Carbohydrates; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000628:therapy*; D004032:Diet; D004435:Eating; D005947:Glucose / Q000032:analysis* / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D007003:Hypoglycemia / Q000175:diagnosis; D007328:Insulin / Q000493:pharmacokinetics / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D002241:Carbohydrates; D007328:Insulin; D005947:Glucose