The choice among past trends as a basis for the prediction of future trends in old-age mortality.
We explored the extent to which projections of future old-age mortality trends differ when different projection bases are used. For seven European countries, four alternative sets of annual rates of mortality change were estimated with age-period log-linear regression models, and subsequently applied to age-specific all-cause mortality rates (80+) in 1999 to predict mortality levels up to 2050. On average, up to 2050, e80 is predicted to increase further by 2.33 years among men and 4.03 years among women. Choosing a historical period of 25 instead of 50 years results in higher predicted gains in e80 for men but lower gains for women. Choosing non-smoking-related mortality instead of all-cause mortality leads to higher gains for women and mixed results for men. In all alternatives there is a strong divergence of predicted mortality levels between the countries. Future projections should be preceded by a thorough study of past trends and their determinants.
Janssen
Fanny
F
Population Research Centre, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, the Netherlands. f.janssen@rug.nl
Kunst
Anton
A
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005060:Europe; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends*; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D010865:Pilot Projects; D012042:Registries; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects*; D014798:Vital Statistics