Are non-sexual models appropriate for predicting the impact of virus-vectored immunocontraception?
In response to the need to efficiently control mammal pest populations while avoiding unnecessary suffering, applied and theoretical ecologists have recently focused on virus-vectored immunocontraception (VVIC). So far, modellers have only considered a non-sexual approach (models of sexually reproducing populations without explicitly discerning between the sexes), which appears dubious in view of the sex-specificity of VVIC agents. In this paper, we derive and compare predictions of non-sexual and two-sex models of the spread of a VVIC agent in a host population in order to assess the adequacy of non-sexual models in this context. Our results show that predictions of non-sexual and two-sex models generally diverge and that non-sexual models often fail to predict the control impact of VVIC. We thus recommend using two-sex models, especially if the mating system and life history of the target species are known. Our analysis also shows that female-specific viruses generally give better results than male-specific ones, and suggests that virus choice should focus more on its sterilizing power rather than transmission efficiency.
Deredec
Anne
A
Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution, Université Paris-Sud XI, Bâtiment 362, 91405 Orsay Cedex, France. a.deredec@imperial.ac.uk
Berec
Ludek
L
Boukal
David S
DS
Courchamp
Franck
F
D000818:Animals; D003269:Contraception, Immunologic / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D005822:Genetic Vectors; D008297:Male; D008322:Mammals / Q000502:physiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D010572:Pest Control, Biological / Q000379:methods*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012098:Reproduction; D013045:Species Specificity; D014780:Viruses / Q000235:genetics