title: Models of covariation-based causal judgment: a review and synthesis.
abstract: Causal judgment is assumed to play a central role in prediction, control, and explanation. Here, we consider the function or functions that map contingency information concerning the relationship between a single cue and a single outcome onto causal judgments. We evaluate normative accounts of causal induction and report the findings of an extensive meta-analysis in which we used a cross-validation model-fitting method and carried out a qualitative analysis of experimental trends in order to compare a number of alternative models. The best model to emerge from this competition is one in which judgments are based on the difference between the amount of confirming and disconfirming evidence. A rational justification for the use of this model is proposed.
authors.affiliation: University of Granada, Granada, Spain. jcesar@ugr.es
authors.forename: José C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Perales
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Shanks
mesh_terms: D015984:Causality; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008960:Models, Psychological