title: Global stability of equilibria in a two-sex HPV vaccination model.
abstract: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the primary cause of cervical carcinoma and its precursor lesions, and is associated with a variety of other cancers and diseases. A prophylactic quadrivalent vaccine against oncogenic HPV 16/18 and warts-causing genital HPV 6/11 types is currently available in several countries. Licensure of a bivalent vaccine against oncogenic HPV 16/18 is expected in the near future. This paper presents a two-sex, deterministic model for assessing the potential impact of a prophylactic HPV vaccine with several properties. The model is based on the susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) compartmental structure. Important epidemiological thresholds such as the basic and effective reproduction numbers and a measure of vaccine impact are derived. We find that if the effective reproduction number is greater than unity, there is a locally unstable infection-free equilibrium and a unique, globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium. If the effective reproduction number is less than unity, the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, and HPV will be eliminated.
authors.affiliation: Merck Research Laboratories, UG1C-60, P.O. Box 1000, North Wales, PA 19454-1099, USA. elamin_elbasha@merck.com
authors.forename: Elamin H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Elbasha
mesh_terms: D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D018448:Models, Immunological; D027383:Papillomaviridae / Q000276:immunology*; D030361:Papillomavirus Infections / Q000276:immunology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D053918:Papillomavirus Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000276:immunology
chemical_list: D053918:Papillomavirus Vaccines