UK national population projections in perspective: how successful compared to those in other European countries?
Compared to population forecasts of other European countries, those made in the United Kingdom during the past 30 years had somewhat larger forecast errors for fertility and smaller errors for mortality. Migration forecasts in the UK were about as accurate as the European average. After controlling for various effects such as relative data volatility both at the time a projection is made and during the period of the projection, there is no indication that recent forecasts in European countries have been more accurate than older ones. Hence population forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, and a forecast for the UK in the form of probability distributions is presented.
Nico
Keilman
K
Department of Economics, University of Oslo.
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005060:Europe; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D011336:Probability; D006113:United Kingdom