Projected impact of colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography on current radiological capacity in Europe.
BACKGROUND
The impact of a primary colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography on current radiological capacity is unknown. The multispecialty needs for computerized tomographic examinations raise some doubts on the feasibility of a mass colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography.


OBJECTIVE
To assess whether the number of available computerized tomographic units in Europe is adequate to cover population screening with computerized tomographic colonography.


METHODS
A mathematical and a Markov model were, respectively, used to assess the number of computerized tomographic colonography procedures needed to be performed each day in the start-up and in the steady-state phases of a colorectal cancer screening programme in Europe. Such outcome was divided for the total number of computerized tomographic machines aged <10 years estimated to be present in the European hospitals.


RESULTS
At a simulated 30% compliance, 28 760 130 European people would need to be screened by the 3482 available computerized tomographic units in a 5-year start-up period, corresponding to 6.6 CTC/CT unit/day. Assuming a 10-year repetition of computerized tomographic colonography between 50 and 80 years, the number of computerized tomographic colonography needed to be performed in the steady-state period appeared to be 4.3/CT unit/day.


CONCLUSIONS
The current radiological capacity may cover the need for a primary colorectal cancer screening with computerized tomographic colonography in a steady state. On the other hand, a substantial implementation of the current computerized tomographic capacity or a synergistic approach with other techniques seems to be necessary for the start-up period.
Hassan
C
C
Gastroenterology and Digestive Endoscopy Unit, Nuovo Regina Margherita Hospital, Rome, Italy. cesareh@hotmail.com
Laghi
A
A
Pickhardt
P J
PJ
Kim
D H
DH
Zullo
A
A
Iafrate
F
F
Morini
S
S
D023881:Colonography, Computed Tomographic / Q000191:economics / Q000295:instrumentation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D005060:Europe; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000191:economics / Q000295:instrumentation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015898:Tomography Scanners, X-Ray Computed / Q000600:supply & distribution*