Lung cancer mortality in France. Trend analysis and projection between 1975 and 2012, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
BACKGROUND
Lung cancer is currently the most common cancer in the world and as such is an important public health concern. One of the main challenges is to foresee the evolution of trends in lung cancer mortality rates in order to anticipate the future burden of this disease as well as to plan the supply of adequate health care. The aim of this study is to propose a quantification of future lung cancer mortality rates by gender in France until the year 2012.


METHODS
Lung cancer mortality data in France (1978-2002) were extracted from the National Statistics of Death and analyzed by 5-year age-groups and periods, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.


CONCLUSIONS
Between 1978 and 2002, female lung cancer mortality rate rises by 3.3%year(-1). For men, a slow increase is observed until 1988-1992 followed by a declining trend. In 1998-2002, age-standardized mortality rates were, respectively, 45.5 and 7.6 per 100000 for males and for females. By 2008-2012 these figures would reach 40.8 (95% credibility interval (CI): 32.7, 50.0) and 12.1 (CI: 11.7, 12.6) per 100000, respectively, which represents among women a 4.7% annual increase (CI: 4.5, 5.0).


RESULTS
Our results highlight the relevance of pursuing public health measures in order to cope more actively with tobacco smoking in the prevention strategy against lung cancer specifically among women.
Eilstein
Daniel
D
Institut de veille sanitaire, 12, rue du Val d'Osne, 94415 Saint-Maurice Cedex, France. d.eilstein@invs.sante.fr
Uhry
Zoé
Z
Lim
Tek-Ang
TA
Bloch
Juliette
J
D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005602:France / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors