Self-rated health and a healthy lifestyle are the most important predictors of survival in elderly women.
OBJECTIVE
to test the hypothesis that morbidity and health related behavioural factors are stronger than social factors as predictors of death among older women.


METHODS
we used data from 12,422 participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who were aged 70-75 in 1996. Proportional hazards models of survival up to 31 October 2005 were fitted separately for the whole cohort and those women who were initially in 'good health'.


RESULTS
among the whole cohort, 18.7% died during the follow_up period. The strongest predictor of death was 'poor' or 'fair' self-rated health (with 52.3% and 28.0%, respectively, of women in these categories dying). Among the women in 'good health' at baseline 11.5% died, with current cigarette smoking (hazard ratio HR = 2.19, 95% confidence interval (1.71, 2.81), physical inactivity (HR = 1.45 (1.17, 1.81)), and age (HR = 1.10 (1.04, 1.16) per year) as statistically significant predictors of death.


CONCLUSIONS
among older women, current health and health related behaviours are stronger predictors than social factors of relatively early mortality. Adopting a healthier lifestyle, by doing more exercise and not smoking, is beneficial even in old age.
School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Queensland, Herston, QLD 4006, Australia.
Jessica
J
Ford
Melanie
M
Spallek
Annette
A
Dobson
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001294:Attitude to Health; D001315:Australia; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D008019:Life Style; D008136:Longevity / Q000502:physiology; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012649:Self Concept; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012737:Sex Factors; D012944:Social Support; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D016387:Women's Health