Does the H index have predictive power?
Bibliometric measures of individual scientific achievement are of particular interest if they can be used to predict future achievement. Here we report results of an empirical study of the predictive power of the h index compared with other indicators. Our findings indicate that the h index is better than other indicators considered (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count) in predicting future scientific achievement. We discuss reasons for the superiority of the h index.
Department of Physics, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093-0319, USA. jhirsch@ucsd.edu
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Hirsch
D000124:Achievement; D015706:Bibliometrics; D008432:Mathematical Computing; D011379:Prognosis; D011642:Publications; D012586:Science