Assessing regulatory effectiveness with exogenously declining risk: a case study of the CPSC's 1973 mattress standard.
BACKGROUND
This paper examines the contribution of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission's (CPSC) 1973 cigarette ignition mattress flammability standard to reduce mattress fires since 1980, when the U.S. Fire Administration's National Fire Incident Reporting System became fully operational.


METHODS
The paper attempts to separate the effect of the cigarette ignition standard from the declining trend in mattress fires that would have resulted without the standard. We analyze the impact of the 1973 cigarette standard on smoking material ignition fires, deaths, and injuries as well as its effect on fires, deaths, and injuries from all ignition sources (smoking material ignitions, open-flame ignitions, and other ignition sources). Impacts on Industry: The results suggest that the 1973 mattress standard has effectively reduced the mattress fire risk and that further reductions in risk via actions tied specifically to cigarette ignition are likely to be difficult to achieve.
Directorate for Economic Analysis, U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, 4330 East West Highway, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA.
Soumaya M
SM
Tohamy
Deborah Vaughn
DV
Aiken
D001513:Beds / Q000592:standards*; D003257:Consumer Product Safety; D005390:Fires / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005411:Flame Retardants / Q000592:standards*; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D012044:Regression Analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
D005411:Flame Retardants