Modelling the effect of urbanization on the transmission of an infectious disease.
This paper models the impact of urbanization on infectious disease transmission by integrating a CA land use development model, population projection matrix model and CA epidemic model in S-Plus. The innovative feature of this model lies in both its explicit treatment of spatial land use development, demographic changes, infectious disease transmission and their combination in a dynamic, stochastic model. Heuristically-defined transition rules in cellular automata (CA) were used to capture the processes of both land use development with urban sprawl and infectious disease transmission. A population surface model and dwelling distribution surface were used to bridge the gap between urbanization and infectious disease transmission. A case study is presented involving modelling influenza transmission in Southampton, a dynamically evolving city in the UK. The simulation results for Southampton over a 30-year period show that the pattern of the average number of infection cases per day can depend on land use and demographic changes. The modelling framework presents a useful tool that may be of use in planning applications.
Zhang
Ping
P
Northeast Geography & Agriculture Ecology Institute, CAS, China. gracezp2004@yahoo.com.cn
Atkinson
Peter M
PM
D000367:Age Factors; D000465:Algorithms; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011158:Population Growth; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014507:Urbanization