title: Identification of liver fibrosis in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients using a simple predictive model based on routine laboratory data.
abstract: We constructed noninvasive models to predict significant fibrosis (F > or = 2) and advanced fibrosis (F > or = 3) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected patients, naïve for anti-HCV treatment. A total of 296 patients with liver biopsy were randomly assigned to an estimation group (EG = 226; 70%) and a validation group (VG = 70; 30%). We developed the Hospital Gregorio Marañón (HGM)-1 index, based on platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and glucose, to predict F > or = 2 and the HGM-2 index, based on platelet count, international normalized ratio, alkaline phosphatase and AST to predict F > or = 3. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of the HGM-1 index for the EG and the VG were 0.807 and 0.712 respectively. The AUROCs of the HGM-2 index for the EG and the VG were 0.844 and 0.815 respectively. With the HGM-1 index applied to the VG, using best cutoff scores, the negative predictive value (NPV) to exclude F > or = 2 was 54.5% and the positive predictive value (PPV) to confirm F > or = 2 was 93.3%. With the HGM-2 index applied to the VG, using best cutoff scores, the NPV to exclude F > or = 3 was 92.3, and the PPV to confirm F > or = 3 was 64.3%. Thus, HGM-2 accurately predicted F > or = 3 among HIV/HCV-coinfected patients. HGM-1 was less accurate at predicting F > or = 2.
authors: Infectious Diseases Unit, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, Spain. juaberber@terra.es
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Berenguer
authors: J M
authors: JM
authors: Bellón
authors: P
authors: P
authors: Miralles
authors: E
authors: E
authors: Alvarez
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Sánchez-Conde
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Cosín
authors: J C
authors: JC
authors: López
authors: F
authors: F
authors: Alvarez
authors: P
authors: P
authors: Catalán
authors: S
authors: S
authors: Resino
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001219:Aspartate Aminotransferases / Q000032:analysis; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications* / Q000821:virology; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000150:complications* / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000821:virology; D008111:Liver Function Tests; D008297:Male; D010976:Platelet Count; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests
chemical_list: D001219:Aspartate Aminotransferases