title: Predicting long-term response to strong opioids in patients with low back pain: findings from a randomized, controlled trial of transdermal fentanyl and morphine.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Some patients with long-standing low back pain will benefit from treatment with strong opioids. However, it would be helpful to predict which patients will have a good response. A fixed-term opioid trial has been recommended, but there is little evidence to suggest how long this trial should be. We assessed data from a large-scale randomized comparison of transdermal fentanyl (TDF) and sustained-release oral morphine (slow-release morphine; SRM) to determine characteristics of treatment responders.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a secondary analysis of a previously published 13-month randomized trial involving 680 patients with long-standing low back pain (median age 52 years, 61% women, median duration of back pain 87 months). Pain relief was recorded using visual analogue scales (VAS). Treatment response was defined as pain relief of at least 30% from baseline to any point during the trial. We used a step-wise logistic regression to identify variables that might predict response to treatment. Covariates included treatment group, sex, age, duration of pain, presence of neuropathic pain, baseline pain scores, educational/employment status, use of high doses of opioids, and social functioning (SF)-36 scores.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Over half the patients in both groups (n = 370; 54% TDF, 55% SRM) were treatment responders. There were no differences between the TDF and SRM responders in terms of age, sex, type or duration of pain between responders and non-responders. The difference in response to treatment between responders and non-responders could be detected at 3 weeks. Lack of response after 1 month had a stronger negative predictive value (i.e., ability to detect non-responders) than the presence of response after 1 month. The most influential factors for predicting a response were employment status (chi2 = 11.06, p = 0.0259) and use of high doses of opioids (chi2 = 3.04, p = 0.0811).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  No clear pattern of baseline pain (type or severity) or patient characteristics emerged that could be used to predict responders before the start of opioid treatment. However, a 1-month trial period appears sufficient to determine response and tolerability in most cases.
authors.affiliation: Pain Clinic, Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki, Finland. eija.kalso@hus.fi
authors.forename: Eija
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kalso
authors.forename: Karen H
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Simpson
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Slappendel
authors.forename: Joachim
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dejonckheere
authors.forename: Ute
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Richarz
mesh_terms: D000279:Administration, Cutaneous; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D000701:Analgesics, Opioid / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D023381:Endpoint Determination; D005260:Female; D005283:Fentanyl / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006801:Humans; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009020:Morphine / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010147:Pain Measurement; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000701:Analgesics, Opioid; D009020:Morphine; D005283:Fentanyl