title: Don't break out the champagne: continued slowing of health care spending growth unlikely to last.
abstract: Aaron Catlin and colleagues report a fourth year of slowing of the rate of growth of personal health care spending. But many factors indicate that relief for purchasers and consumers will be short-lived. Research on local health care markets suggests that rapid expansion of provider capacity and incentives to increase volume of care are continuing. Increasing incidence of obesity is a major factor behind rising costs. The influence of the economic cycle on health spending, which has lowered the trend in recent years, is likely to reverse its impact shortly.
authors.affiliation: Center for Studying Health System Change, Washington, DC, USA. pginsburg@hschange.org
authors.forename: Paul B
authors.initials: PB
authors.lastname: Ginsburg
mesh_terms: D004469:Economics, Hospital / Q000639:trends; D004470:Economics, Medical / Q000639:trends; D005382:Financing, Personal / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000639:trends; D019538:Health Care Surveys; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology