title: Development and validation of a multidimensional prognostic index for one-year mortality from comprehensive geriatric assessment in hospitalized older patients.
abstract: Our objective was to construct and validate a Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) for 1-year mortality from a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) routinely carried out in elderly patients in a geriatric acute ward. The CGA included clinical, cognitive, functional, nutritional, and social parameters and was carried out using six standardized scales and information on medications and social support network, for a total of 63 items in eight domains. A MPI was developed from CGA data by aggregating the total scores of the eight domains and expressing it as a score from 0 to 1. Three grades of MPI were identified: low risk, 0.0-0.33; moderate risk, 0.34-0.66; and severe risk, 0.67-1.0. Using the proportional hazard models, we studied the predictive value of the MPI for all causes of mortality over a 12-month follow-up period. MPI was then validated in a different cohort of consecutively hospitalized patients. The development cohort included 838 and the validation cohort 857 elderly hospitalized patients. Of the patients in the two cohorts, 53.3 and 54.9% were classified in the low-risk group, respectively (MPI mean value, 0.18 +/- 0.09 and 0.18 +/- 0.09); 31.2 and 30.6% in the moderate-risk group (0.48 +/- 0.09 and 0.49 +/- 0.09); 15.4 and 14.2% in the severe-risk group (0.77 +/- 0.08 and 0.75 +/- 0.07). In both cohorts, higher MPI scores were significantly associated with older age (p = 0.0001), female sex (p = 0.0001), lower educational level (p = 0.0001), and higher mortality (p = 0.0001). In both cohorts, a close agreement was found between the estimated mortality and the observed mortality after both 6 months and 1 year of follow-up. The discrimination of the MPI was also good, with a ROC area of 0.751 (95%CI, 0.70-0.80) at 6 months and 0.751 (95%CI, 0.71-0.80) at 1 year of follow-up. We conclude that this MPI, calculated from information collected in a standardized CGA, accurately stratifies hospitalized elderly patients into groups at varying risk of mortality.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Sciences & Gerontology and Geriatrics Laboratory, IRCCS Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza, San Giovanni Rotondo, Italy. alberto.pilotto@operapadrepio.it
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pilotto
authors.forename: Luigi
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ferrucci
authors.forename: Marilisa
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Franceschi
authors.forename: Luigi P
authors.initials: LP
authors.lastname: D'Ambrosio
authors.forename: Carlo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Scarcelli
authors.forename: Leandro
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Cascavilla
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Paris
authors.forename: Giuliana
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Placentino
authors.forename: Davide
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Seripa
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Dallapiccola
authors.forename: Gioacchino
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Leandro
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D011379:Prognosis; D013997:Time Factors