title: Bayesian optimal design for phase II screening trials.
abstract: Most phase II screening designs available in the literature consider one treatment at a time. Each study is considered in isolation. We propose a more systematic decision-making approach to the phase II screening process. The sequential design allows for more efficiency and greater learning about treatments. The approach incorporates a Bayesian hierarchical model that allows combining information across several related studies in a formal way and improves estimation in small data sets by borrowing strength from other treatments. The design incorporates a utility function that includes sampling costs and possible future payoff. Computer simulations show that this method has high probability of discarding treatments with low success rates and moving treatments with high success rates to phase III trial.
authors.affiliation: Hoffman-La Roche Inc., Department of Biostatistics, MS 44, 340 Kinsland Street, Nutley, New Jersey 07110-1199, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Meichun
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ding
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Boulevard, Houston, Texas 77030, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Gary L
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Rosner
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, 1515 Holcombe Boulevard, Houston, Texas 77030, U.S.A.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Müller
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001699:Biometry / Q000379:methods; D017322:Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical