title: Early predictors of mortality from Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia in HIV-infected patients: 1985-2006.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) remains the leading cause of opportunistic infection among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons. Previous studies of PCP that identified case-fatality risk factors involved small numbers of patients, were performed over few years, and often focused on patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The objective of this study was to identify case-fatality risk factors present at or soon after hospitalization among adult HIV-infected patients admitted to University College London Hospitals (London, United Kingdom) from June 1985 through June 2006.
  
  
  METHODS
  We performed a review of case notes for 494 consecutive patients with 547 episodes of laboratory-confirmed PCP.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Overall mortality was 13.5%. Mortality was 10.1% for the period from 1985 through 1989, 16.9% for the period from 1990 through June 1996, and 9.7% for the period from July 1996 through 2006 (P = .142). Multivariate analysis identified factors associated with risk of death, including increasing patient age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-2.23; P = .011), subsequent episode of PCP (AOR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.14-4.52; P = .019), low hemoglobin level at hospital admission (AOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60-0.83; P < .001), low partial pressure of oxygen breathing room air at hospital admission (AOR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.60-0.81; P < .001), presence of medical comorbidity (AOR, 3.93; 95% CI, 1.77-8.72; P = .001), and pulmonary Kaposi sarcoma (AOR, 6.95; 95% CI, 2.26-21.37; P = .001). Patients with a first episode of PCP were sicker (mean partial pressure of oxygen at admission +/- standard deviation, 9.3+/-2.0 kPa) than those with a second or third episode of PCP (mean partial pressure of oxygen at admission +/- standard deviation, 9.9+/-1.9 kPa; P = .008), but mortality among patients with a first episode of PCP (12.5%) was lower than mortality among patients with subsequent episodes of PCP (22.5%) (P = .019). No patient was receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy before presentation with PCP, and none began highly active antiretroviral therapy during treatment of PCP.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Mortality risk factors for PCP were identifiable at or soon after hospitalization. The trend towards improved outcome after June 1996 occurred in the absence of highly active antiretroviral therapy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Peter D
authors.initials: PD
authors.lastname: Walzer
authors.forename: Hannah E R
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Evans
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Copas
authors.forename: Simon G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.forename: Alison D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Grant
authors.forename: Robert F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Miller
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications*; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008131:London; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D045363:Pneumocystis carinii / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D011020:Pneumonia, Pneumocystis / Q000401:mortality*; D012307:Risk Factors