title: Duration of survival after peptic ulcer perforation.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The long-term course after peptic ulcer perforation is unclear, but because the ulcer population is generally older and has concomitant disease, the long-term prognosis may be expected to be poor.
  
  
  METHODS
  In a study based on prospective data collection, all patients with peptic ulcer perforation treated at the Department of Surgery at the Heinrich-Heine-University in Dusseldorf, Germany, were documented between 1986 and 1995. In a follow-up study, the following parameters were investigated and survival rates were estimated: hospital mortality, 1-month mortality, 1-year mortality, and 5-year mortality. Significant prognostic parameters for death were worked out in univariate and multivariate analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Ninety-nine out of 108 patients with peptic ulcer perforation could be followed-up. One-month mortality was similar to hospital mortality, at 9.1%; 1-year mortality was about 20.2%; and 5-year mortality was 32.3%. Statistically significant prognostic factors for death in univariate analysis were age beyond 70 years, concomitant diseases, risk-related drugs, postinterventional complications and admission status. In multivariate analysis concomitant diseases, postoperative complications, and advanced age were significant parameters for death.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Long-term prognosis of peptic ulcer perforation is poor. Risk factors for late mortality after peptic ulcer perforation are age, severe concomitant diseases, and postinterventional complications.
authors.affiliation: Department of General and Trauma Surgery, Malteser Hospital St. Hildegardis, Bachemer Str. 29-33, 50931 Cologne, Germany. dres.imhof@t-online.de
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Imhof
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Epstein
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ohmann
authors.forename: Hans-Dietrich
authors.initials: HD
authors.lastname: Röher
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010439:Peptic Ulcer Perforation / Q000401:mortality*; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D013997:Time Factors