Duration of survival after peptic ulcer perforation.
BACKGROUND
The long-term course after peptic ulcer perforation is unclear, but because the ulcer population is generally older and has concomitant disease, the long-term prognosis may be expected to be poor.


METHODS
In a study based on prospective data collection, all patients with peptic ulcer perforation treated at the Department of Surgery at the Heinrich-Heine-University in Dusseldorf, Germany, were documented between 1986 and 1995. In a follow-up study, the following parameters were investigated and survival rates were estimated: hospital mortality, 1-month mortality, 1-year mortality, and 5-year mortality. Significant prognostic parameters for death were worked out in univariate and multivariate analysis.


RESULTS
Ninety-nine out of 108 patients with peptic ulcer perforation could be followed-up. One-month mortality was similar to hospital mortality, at 9.1%; 1-year mortality was about 20.2%; and 5-year mortality was 32.3%. Statistically significant prognostic factors for death in univariate analysis were age beyond 70 years, concomitant diseases, risk-related drugs, postinterventional complications and admission status. In multivariate analysis concomitant diseases, postoperative complications, and advanced age were significant parameters for death.


CONCLUSIONS
Long-term prognosis of peptic ulcer perforation is poor. Risk factors for late mortality after peptic ulcer perforation are age, severe concomitant diseases, and postinterventional complications.
Imhof
Michael
M
Department of General and Trauma Surgery, Malteser Hospital St. Hildegardis, Bachemer Str. 29-33, 50931 Cologne, Germany. dres.imhof@t-online.de
Epstein
Stefan
S
Ohmann
Christian
C
Röher
Hans-Dietrich
HD
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010439:Peptic Ulcer Perforation / Q000401:mortality*; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D013997:Time Factors