title: Risk prediction for development of pancreatic fistula using the ISGPF classification scheme.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The International Study Group on Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF) classification scheme has become a useful system for characterizing the clinical impact of pancreatic fistula. We sought to identify predictive factors that predispose patients to fistula, specifically those with clinical relevance (grades B/C), and to describe the clinical and economic significance of risk stratification within this framework.
  
  
  METHODS
  Overall, 233 consecutive pancreatoduodenectomies were performed between October 2001 and March 2007 in our institution. Pancreatic fistula is defined according to the ISGPF classification scheme. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors for pancreatic fistula development. These features were then analyzed to determine whether additive risk severity equates to worsening clinical and economic impact.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Fistulas of any extent occurred in 60 patients, but only 31 (14%) were clinically relevant. There are no identifiable risk factors for grade A biochemical fistulas. Multivariate analysis shows that small pancreatic duct size (<3 mm); soft gland texture; ampullary, duodenal, cystic, or islet cell pathology; and increased intraoperative blood loss (>1,000 ml) are associated with clinically relevant fistulae. An additive effect is further illustrated, in which clinical and economic outcomes progressively worsen as risk profile increases. Each additional risk factor increases the odds of developing a clinically relevant fistula by 52%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For pancreatoduodenectomy, small duct size; soft gland texture; ampullary, duodenal, cystic, or islet cell pathology; and increased intraoperative blood loss are convincing risk factors for the development clinically relevant fistulae as judged by ISGPF classification. As risk profile accrues, patients suffer more complications, encounter longer hospital stays, and incur greater hospital costs. These outcomes can be predicted in the operating room through accurate delineation of high-risk glands.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, 330 Brookline Avenue, ST 9, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA.
authors.forename: Wande B
authors.initials: WB
authors.lastname: Pratt
authors.forename: Mark P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Callery
authors.forename: Charles M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Vollmer
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D010182:Pancreatic Diseases / Q000601:surgery; D010185:Pancreatic Fistula / Q000145:classification / Q000209:etiology*; D016577:Pancreaticoduodenectomy / Q000009:adverse effects*; D019990:Perioperative Care / Q000379:methods; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000145:classification / Q000191:economics; D012307:Risk Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome