title: High-resolution molecular epidemiology and evolutionary history of HIV-1 subtypes in Albania.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  HIV-1 epidemic in Western Europe is largely due to subtype B. Little is known about the HIV-1 in Eastern Europe, but a few studies have shown that non-B subtypes are quite common. In Albania, where a recent study estimated a ten-fold increase of AIDS incidence during the last six years, subtype A and B account for 90% of the know infections.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We investigated the demographic history of HIV-1 subtype A and B in Albania by using a statistical framework based on coalescent theory and phylogeography. High-resolution phylogenetic and molecular clock analysis showed a limited introduction to the Balkan country of subtype A during the late 1980s followed by an epidemic outburst in the early 1990 s. In contrast, subtype B was apparently introduced multiple times between the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. Both subtypes are growing exponentially, although the HIV-1A epidemic displays a faster growth rate, and a significantly higher basic reproductive number R(0). HIV-1A gene flow occurs primarily from the capital Tirane, in the center of the country, to the periphery, while HIV-1B flow is characterized by a balanced exchange between center and periphery. Finally, we calculated that the actual number of infections in Albania is at least two orders of magnitude higher than previously thought.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our analysis demonstrates the power of recently developed computational tools to investigate molecular epidemiology of pathogens, and emphasize the complex factors involved in the establishment of HIV-1 epidemics. We suggest that a significant correlation exists between HIV-1 exponential spread and the socio-political changes occurred during the Balkan wars. The fast growth of a relatively new non-B epidemic in the Balkans may have significant consequences for the evolution of HIV-1 epidemiology in neighboring countries in Eastern and Western Europe.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pathology, Immunology, and Laboratory Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA. salemi@pathology.ufl.edu
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Salemi
authors.forename: Tulio
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: de Oliveira
authors.forename: Massimo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ciccozzi
authors.forename: Giovanni
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Rezza
authors.forename: Maureen M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Goodenow
mesh_terms: D000415:Albania; D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D005843:Geography; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000821:virology*; D015497:HIV-1 / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics*; D006801:Humans; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D017720:Molecular Epidemiology; D010802:Phylogeny