Effects of internal border control on spread of pandemic influenza.
We investigated the capacity of internal border control to limit influenza spread in an emergent pandemic in the context of Australia, a country with a low-population density and geopolitical boundaries that may facilitate restrictions. Mathematical models were used to study the time delay between epidemics in 2 population centers when travel restrictions were imposed. The models demonstrated that population size, travel rates, and places where travelers reside can strongly influence delay. The model simulations suggested that moderate delays in geographic spread may be possible with stringent restrictions and a low reproduction number, but results will be sensitive to the reproduction number and timing of restrictions. Model limitations include the absence of further importations and additional control measures. Internal border control may have a role in protecting domestic centers early in a pandemic, when importations are sparse. Our results may be useful for policymakers.
Wood
James G
JG
National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance of Vaccine Preventable Diseases, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. jamesw5@chw.edu.au
Zamani
Nasim
N
MacIntyre
C Raina
CR
Beckert
Niels G
NG
D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D008433:Mathematics; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011050:Policy Making; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012621:Seasons; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance; D013997:Time Factors; D014195:Travel