title: Volumetric MRI vs clinical predictors of Alzheimer disease in mild cognitive impairment.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To compare volumetric MRI of whole brain and medial temporal lobe structures to clinical measures for predicting progression from amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer disease (AD).
  
  
  METHODS
  Baseline MRI scans from 129 subjects with amnestic MCI were obtained from participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study group's randomized, placebo-controlled clinical drug trial of donepezil, vitamin E, or placebo. Measures of whole brain, ventricular, hippocampal, and entorhinal cortex volumes were acquired. Participants were followed with clinical and cognitive evaluations until formal criteria for AD were met, or completion of 36 months of follow-up. Logistic regression modeling was done to assess the predictive value of all MRI measures, risk factors such as APOE genotype, age, family history of AD, education, sex, and cognitive test scores for progression to AD. Least angle regression modeling was used to determine which variables would produce an optimal predictive model, and whether adding MRI measures to a model with only clinical measures would improve predictive accuracy.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of the four MRI measures evaluated, only ventricular volumes and hippocampal volumes were predictive of progression to AD. Maximal predictive accuracy using only MRI measures was obtained by hippocampal volumes by themselves (60.4%). When clinical variables were added to the model, the predictive accuracy increased to 78.8%. Use of MRI measures did not improve predictive accuracy beyond that obtained by cognitive measures alone. APOE status, MRI, or demographic variables were not necessary for the optimal predictive model. This optimal model included the Delayed 10-word list recall, New York University Delayed Paragraph Recall, and the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale total score.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In moderate stages of amnestic mild cognitive impairment, common cognitive tests provide better predictive accuracy than measures of whole brain, ventricular, entorhinal cortex, or hippocampal volumes for assessing progression to Alzheimer disease.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurosciences, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA. afleisher@ucsd.edu
authors.forename: A S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Fleisher
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Taylor
authors.forename: C P
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Ward
authors.forename: A C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Gamst
authors.forename: R C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Petersen
authors.forename: C R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Jack
authors.forename: P S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Aisen
authors.forename: L J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Thal
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000235:genetics / Q000523:psychology*; D001057:Apolipoproteins E / Q000235:genetics; D001921:Brain / Q000473:pathology* / Q000503:physiopathology; D002552:Cerebral Ventricles / Q000473:pathology; D003072:Cognition Disorders / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000235:genetics; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004252:DNA Mutational Analysis; D003710:Demography; D018450:Disease Progression; D018728:Entorhinal Cortex / Q000473:pathology / Q000503:physiopathology; D005260:Female; D005820:Genetic Testing; D005838:Genotype; D006624:Hippocampus / Q000473:pathology / Q000503:physiopathology; D006801:Humans; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards*; D008297:Male; D009483:Neuropsychological Tests / Q000592:standards*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
chemical_list: D001057:Apolipoproteins E