Mortality from ship emissions: a global assessment.
Epidemiological studies consistently link ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) to negative health impacts, including asthma, heart attacks, hospital admissions, and premature mortality. We model ambient PM concentrations from oceangoing ships using two geospatial emissions inventories and two global aerosol models. We estimate global and regional mortalities by applying ambient PM increases due to ships to cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentration-risk functions and population models. Our results indicate that shipping-related PM emissions are responsible for approximately 60,000 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths annually, with most deaths occurring near coastlines in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia. Under current regulation and with the expected growth in shipping activity, we estimate that annual mortalities could increase by 40% by 2012.
Corbett
James J
JJ
College of Marine and Earth Studies, University of Delaware, 305 Robinson Hall, Newark, Delaware 19716, USA. jcorbett@udel.edu
Winebrake
James J
JJ
Green
Erin H
EH
Kasibhatla
Prasad
P
Eyring
Veronika
V
Lauer
Axel
A
D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000633:toxicity*; D001249:Asthma / Q000401:mortality; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D006801:Humans; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000401:mortality; D010316:Particle Size; D012767:Ships
D000393:Air Pollutants