title: Natural history of immunoglobulin A nephropathy and predictive factors of prognosis: a long-term follow up of 204 cases in China.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary glomerulonephritis worldwide. However, its natural history and risk factors are not well understood. Our aim was to identify the clinical and pathological factors that could predict disease prognosis in Chinese patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  We studied 204 biopsy-diagnosed IgAN patients, who were followed for an average of 6.1 years (range, 4-15 years). Chronic kidney disease (CKD) classified according to the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative practice guidelines. Renal pathological lesions were graded single-blindedly according to the Haas classification. The glomerular filtration rate was estimated by the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation for Chinese subjects.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Patients with CKD were classified as stage 1 (38.10%), stage 2 (35.40%), stage 3 (13.30%), stage 4 (9.90%) and stage 5 (3.30%). During the follow up, 31 patients had progressed to end-stage renal disease. The renal survival rate following biopsy was 85.1% at the fifth year, and 77.1% at the 10th year. Univariate analysis indicated that patients who were male, had hypertension, proteinuria of more than 1 g/day, renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate, <60 mL/min.1.73 m(2)), and a high histological grading were associated with poor prognosis. Multivariate analysis indicated that the relative risk of renal failure for patients was 3.9 (P = 0.000) for patients with renal impairment, 2.8 (P = 0.019) for patients with hypertension, and 2.0 (P = 0.003) for patients with high histological grading.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We described the natural history of IgAN through follow ups of a relatively large cohort of patients. Most patients were biopsied at an early stage; however, the long-term prognosis was still poor. Patients with renal impairment, hypertension and advanced histological involvement had the highest risk for disease progression.
authors.affiliation: Renal Division, Department of Medicine, Peking University First Hospital, Institute of Nephrology, Peking University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jicheng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lv
authors.forename: Hong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Yang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: Guangtao
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Wanzhong
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Zou
authors.forename: Haiyan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005919:Glomerular Filtration Rate; D005922:Glomerulonephritis, IGA / Q000150:complications* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000503:physiopathology; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D007668:Kidney / Q000473:pathology / Q000503:physiopathology; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000503:physiopathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011507:Proteinuria / Q000150:complications; D051436:Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000503:physiopathology; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D012737:Sex Factors; D013997:Time Factors