title: Prognostic scoring in ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm: a prospective evaluation.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Prospective validation of prognostic scoring systems for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is lacking. This study assesses the validity of three established risk scores and a new prognostic index.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients admitted with ruptured AAA during a 26-month period (August 2002-December 2004) were recruited prospectively. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Hardman Index, Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) scores, and the Edinburgh Ruptured Aneurysm Score (ERAS) were recorded and related to outcome.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the study period, 111 patients were admitted with ruptured AAA. Of these, 84 (76%) underwent attempted operative repair and were included in the study; 37 (44%) died after operation. The GAS, Hardman Index, and the ERAS were statistically related to mortality. However, analysis by receiver-operator characteristic curve revealed the ERAS to have an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.83). The vascular (V)-POSSUM and ruptured AAA (RAAA)-POSSUM models had an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.59-0.82). The Hardman Index and GAS had an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.57-0.80) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.52-0.76), respectively. Although the V-POSSUM equation predicted mortality effectively (P = .086), the RAAA-POSSUM derivative demonstrated a significant lack of fit (P = .009).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Prospective validation shows that the Hardman Index, GAS, and V-POSSUM and RAAA-POSSUM scores do not perform well as predictors for death after ruptured AAA. The ERAS accurately stratifies perioperative risk but requires further validation.
authors.affiliation: Edinburgh Vascular Surgical Service, Clinical & Surgical Sciences (Surgery), University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland. andrew.tambyraja@ed.ac.uk <andrew.tambyraja@ed.ac.uk>
authors.forename: Andrew L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Tambyraja
authors.forename: Amanda J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: John A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Murie
authors.forename: Roderick T A
authors.initials: RT
authors.lastname: Chalmers
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000150:complications* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D001019:Aortic Rupture / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D018579:Patient Selection; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014656:Vascular Surgical Procedures / Q000401:mortality*