The mapping model: a cognitive theory of quantitative estimation.
How do people make quantitative estimations, such as estimating a car's selling price? Traditionally, linear-regression-type models have been used to answer this question. These models assume that people weight and integrate all information available to estimate a criterion. The authors propose an alternative cognitive theory for quantitative estimation. The mapping model, inspired by the work of N. R. Brown and R. S. Siegler (1993) on metrics and mappings, offers a heuristic approach to decision making. The authors test this model against established alternative models of estimation, namely, linear regression, an exemplar model, and a simple estimation heuristic. With 4 experimental studies the authors compare the models under different environmental conditions. The mapping model proves to be a valid model to predict people's estimates.
von Helversen
Bettina
B
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany. vhelvers@mpib-berlin.mpg.de
Rieskamp
Jörg
J
D000328:Adult; D003071:Cognition; D003463:Cues; D003657:Decision Making; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008297:Male; D011582:Psychological Theory; D011584:Psychology / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*