[Establishment of a model for predicting the postoperative morbidity in patients with pelvic and acetabulum fractures].
OBJECTIVE
To establish a model for predicting the postoperative morbidity in patients with pelvic and acetabulum fractures.


METHODS
The clinical of 94 patients with pelvic and acetabulum fractures were retrospectively reviewed for analysis of the postoperative complications and duration of hospital stay. The preoperative physiological scores (PS) and operative severity scores (OS) of the patients were selected as the variables, and their regression coefficients were calculated by logistic regression analysis to establish the model for predicting the postoperative morbidities. The predictive value of the model was evaluated according to the ROC curve.


RESULTS
The model for predicting postoperative morbidities of pelvic and acetabulum fractures, ln P/(1-P)=-13.83+0.47x PS+0.33xOS, has an area under ROC curve of 0.888-/+0.037 with the cut-off point of 37%, sensitivity of 84.21%, specificity of 82.14%, concordance rate of 82.98%, misclassification rate of 15.79% and omission classification rate of 17.86%.


CONCLUSIONS
This model possesses a high predictive capability for postoperative morbidities of pelvic and acetabulum fractures, and can be helpful for clinical therapeutic decision-making and lower the risks in operation.
Su
Yi-Lin
YL
Department of Emergency Medicine, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China. lingmeng2003@tom.com
Wang
Gang
G
Wang
Rui-Jin
RJ
D000077:Acetabulum / Q000293:injuries* / Q000601:surgery; D000328:Adult; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D050723:Fractures, Bone / Q000601:surgery*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D009017:Morbidity; D010384:Pelvic Bones / Q000293:injuries* / Q000601:surgery; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D016896:Treatment Outcome