On the delayed Ross-Macdonald model for malaria transmission.
The feedback dynamics from mosquito to human and back to mosquito involve considerable time delays due to the incubation periods of the parasites. In this paper, taking explicit account of the incubation periods of parasites within the human and the mosquito, we first propose a delayed Ross-Macdonald model. Then we calculate the basic reproduction number R0 and carry out some sensitivity analysis of R0 on the incubation periods, that is, to study the effect of time delays on the basic reproduction number. It is shown that the basic reproduction number is a decreasing function of both time delays. Thus, prolonging the incubation periods in either humans or mosquitos (via medicine or control measures) could reduce the prevalence of infection.
Ruan
Shigui
S
Department of Mathematics, University of Miami, P.O. Box 249085, Coral Gables, FL 33124-4250, USA. ruan@math.miami.edu
Xiao
Dongmei
D
Beier
John C
JC
D000818:Animals; D009033:Culicidae / Q000469:parasitology; D005246:Feedback; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000469:parasitology; D008288:Malaria / Q000469:parasitology / Q000635:transmission*; D008433:Mathematics; D008954:Models, Biological