Modeling the impact of immigration on the epidemiology of tuberculosis.
This paper presents two new theoretical frameworks to investigate the impact of immigration on the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. For the basic model, we present new analysis on the existence and stability of equilibria. Then, we use numerical simulations of the model to illustrate the behavior of the system. We apply the model to Canadian reported data on tuberculosis and observe a good agreement between the model prediction and the data. For the extended model, which incorporated the recruitment of the latent and infectious in immigrants to the basic model, we find that the usual threshold condition does not apply and a unique equilibrium exists for all parameter values. This indicates that the disease does not disappear and becomes endemic in host areas. This finding is also supported by numerical simulations with the extended model. Our study suggests that immigrants have a considerable influence on the overall transmission dynamics behavior of tuberculosis.
Jia
Zhong-Wei
ZW
School of Information Engineering, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 10 Xitucheng Road, Beijing 100876, PR China.
Tang
Gong-You
GY
Jin
Zhen
Z
Dye
Christopher
C
Vlas
Sake J
SJ
Li
Xiao-Wen
XW
Feng
Dan
D
Fang
Li-Qun
LQ
Zhao
Wen-Juan
WJ
Cao
Wu-Chun
WC
D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology*