Size doesn't really matter: ambiguity aversion in Ellsberg urns with few balls.
When attempting to draw a ball of a specified color either from an urn containing 50 red balls and 50 black balls or from an urn containing an unknown ratio of 100 red and black balls, a majority of decision makers prefer the known-risk urn, and this ambiguity aversion effect violates expected utility theory. In an experimental investigation of the effect of urn size on ambiguity aversion, 149 participants showed similar levels of aversion when choosing from urns containing 2, 10, or 100 balls. The occurrence of a substantial and significant ambiguity aversion effect even in the smallest urn suggests that influential theoretical interpretations of ambiguity aversion may need to be reconsidered.
Pulford
Briony D
BD
School of Psychology, University of Leicester, UK. bdp5@le.ac.uk
Colman
Andrew M
AM
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001288:Attention; D002755:Choice Behavior; D003118:Color Perception; D003657:Decision Making; D003662:Decision Theory; D004193:Discrimination Learning; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009042:Motivation; D011337:Probability Learning; D011597:Psychomotor Performance; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012858:Size Perception