title: Prognostic modelling in ischaemic stroke study, additional value of genetic characteristics. Rationale and design.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The prediction of prognosis after cerebral infarction might be improved by genetic information. The aim of the Prognostic Modelling in Ischaemic Stroke study is to develop 2 different prognostic models on the basis of traditional vascular risk factors and genetic information in patients who have suffered from cerebral ischaemia of arterial origin, 1 concerning new ischaemic and the other new haemorrhagic events.
  
  
  METHODS
  Polymorphisms and haplotypes describing the haemostatic system and those that influence antithrombotic drug activity will be identified in a cohort of 1,200 patients with cerebral ischaemia of arterial origin who will be followed up for a mean of 6.5 years. In total, 312 ischaemic and 78 haemorrhagic events are anticipated. With a prevalence of a genetic characteristic of 10% a relative risk of 1.4 (95% confidence interval = 1.1-1.8) for ischaemic events and of 1.8 (95% confidence interval = 1.0-3.2) for haemorrhagic events can be estimated with sufficient precision. To determine the additional prognostic value of genetic characteristics the area under the ROC curves of 2 separate models will be compared: 1 based on non-genetic risk factors only, the other also including genetic data.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, Rudolf Magnus Institute of Neuroscience, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands. s.achterberg-2@umcutrecht.nl
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Achterberg
authors.forename: L J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Kappelle
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Algra
mesh_terms: D006239:Haplotypes; D006487:Hemostasis / Q000235:genetics*; D006801:Humans; D011110:Polymorphism, Genetic; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012107:Research Design; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000235:genetics*