[Model for estimation of cardiovascular risk in Norway].
BACKGROUND
Guidelines for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) include calculation of total risk. A new risk model based on updated Norwegian data is needed, as the European SCORE function overestimates the risk of fatal CVD in Norway. NORRISK for 10-year CVD mortality is presented. It includes gender, age and smoking and levels of systolic blood pressure and serumtotal cholesterol.


METHODS
NORRISK is based on national age- and sex specific mortality rates from Statistics Norway (1999-2003), mean levels of risk factors from Norwegian Health Surveys (2000-03) and relative risks from mortality follow-up of Norwegian Cardiovascular Screenings (1985-2002). The model is adjusted to the mortality level in the period 1999-2003 and is compared with the SCORE model.


RESULTS
10-year risk estimates calculated from NORRISK fall between SCORE high- and low-risk estimates and increase strongly with age. Very few persons below 50 years of age have a 10-year risk above 5% (European limit for high risk). More than half of men aged 60 years have estimated risks above this limit, while only 7% of 60-year-old women exceed the limit. Even if the risk limit is reduced to 1% for younger age groups, very few women below 50 years of age have risks above the limit.


CONCLUSIONS
NORRISK is more adapted to the current situation in Norway than the SCORE model and may be a useful and relevant tool in Norwegian clinical practice.
Selmer
Randi
R
Divisjon for epidemiologi, Nasjonalt folkehelseinstitutt, Postboks 4404 Nydalen, 0403 Oslo. randi.selmer@fhi.no
Lindman
Anja Schou
AS
Tverdal
Aage
A
Pedersen
Jan I
JI
Njølstad
Inger
I
Veierød
Marit B
MB
D000328:Adult; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D009664:Norway / Q000453:epidemiology; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis; D015996:Survival Rate