title: Potential impact of climate change on schistosomiasis transmission in China.
abstract: Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4 degrees C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8 degrees C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0 degrees C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9 degrees C in 2030 and 1.6 degrees C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km(2) by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai, People's Republic of China. ipdzhouxn@sh163.net
authors.forename: Xiao-Nong
authors.initials: XN
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: Guo-Jing
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Xian-Hong
authors.initials: XH
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Qing-Biao
authors.initials: QB
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.forename: Le-Ping
authors.initials: LP
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.forename: John B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Malone
authors.forename: Thomas K
authors.initials: TK
authors.lastname: Kristensen
authors.forename: N Robert
authors.initials: NR
authors.lastname: Bergquist
authors.forename: Jürg
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Utzinger
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012549:Schistosoma japonicum / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D012554:Schistosomiasis japonica / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D012908:Snails / Q000469:parasitology*; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors