title: Increment in beta-hCG in the 48-h period prior to treatment: a new variable predictive of therapeutic success in the treatment of ectopic pregnancy with methotrexate.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To evaluate the increment in beta-hCG levels (%) in the 48-h interval prior to treatment as a predictor of therapeutic success in the management of ectopic pregnancy with methotrexate.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective observational study was carried out between April 2002 and November 2006 at the Federal University of São Paulo in 65 patients with an ectopic pregnancy treated with a single dose of 50 mg/m(2) of methotrexate administered intramuscularly. The following predictive factors were evaluated: beta-hCG level on the day of hospital admission and the percent increment in beta-hCG in the 48-h interval prior to treatment.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Treatment was successful in 49 cases (75.4%). In these cases, beta-hCG levels at hospitalization were lower when compared to the levels found in cases of therapeutic failure (1,928.9 vs. 4,828.6 mIU/ml, respectively; P<0.01), and the increment in beta-hCG level in the 48-h interval prior to treatment was smaller (13.1 vs. 36.3%, respectively; P=0.01). A beta-hCG measurement <or=2,685 mIU/ml on the day of hospitalization and an increment in beta-hCG level <or=11.1% in the 48 h preceding treatment were factors indicative of therapeutic success with sensitivity of 79.6 and 61.7%, respectively, and specificity of 75 and 81.3%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The lower the beta-hCG measurement on the day of hospital admission and the lower its increment in the 48-h interval prior to treatment, the greater the likelihood that treatment of ectopic pregnancy with methotrexate will be successful. The margin of safety for treatment with methotrexate is high when beta-hCG measurement on the day of hospitalization is <or=2,685 mIU/ml and its increment in the 48 h prior to treatment is <or=11.1%.
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics, Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP), São Paulo, SP, Brazil. sassarcs@uol.com.br
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: da Costa Soares
authors.forename: Júlio
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Elito
authors.forename: Luiz
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Camano
mesh_terms: D000020:Abortifacient Agents, Nonsteroidal / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D018997:Chorionic Gonadotropin, beta Subunit, Human / Q000097:blood* / Q000378:metabolism; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008727:Methotrexate / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D011247:Pregnancy; D011271:Pregnancy, Ectopic / Q000097:blood* / Q000188:drug therapy*; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D000020:Abortifacient Agents, Nonsteroidal; D018997:Chorionic Gonadotropin, beta Subunit, Human; D008727:Methotrexate