title: Heavy episodic drinking: determining the predictive utility of five or more drinks.
abstract: Although the heavy episodic drinking (HED) measure of 5+ drinks (sometimes 4+ for women) is used extensively, there is no empirical basis for the designation of 5 drinks as the threshold (vs. another threshold that may perform equally). The present study sought to determine the threshold for HED that maximally predicts proximal and distal adverse-drinking-related outcomes. Participants included 115 young adults (57% female; 96% Caucasian) who partook in an 8-week Internet survey that assessed daily drinking as well as next-day hangover; 10 months later, adverse outcomes (problem drinking, alcohol-related problems, maximum number of drinks, and drug use) were surveyed. Thresholds were computed, with a range from 1+ drinks to 15+ drinks, and outcomes were predicted from each threshold. Findings for hangover measures showed relatively good convergence across multiple indicators, with greatest prediction occurring at a threshold of 10+ drinks per occasion. Different thresholds were observed for long-term outcomes, with higher thresholds indicative of outcomes with greater severity. Although alternatives to HED, such as subjective effects and blood alcohol concentration, can indicate risky drinking, a threshold measure of HED may have advantages in terms of prevention and of intervention efforts.
authors.affiliation: Center for Alcohol and Addiction Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA. Kristina_Jackson@brown.edu
authors.forename: Kristina M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Jackson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010507:Periodicity; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013334:Students / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires