Is recent major hurricane activity normal?
The anomaly of the recent increase in Atlantic major hurricane activity (MHA) is controversial. From a reconstruction of past MHA, Nyberg et al. conclude that the present activity is not unusual by comparison with that of the past 270 years. However, here I estimate the uncertainty of average MHA in the hurricane record before 1945 and show that the reconstruction of Nyberg et al. differs strongly from that record, and probably overestimates past MHA. Owing to this and further reasons, I question whether their reconstruction provides an accurate basis for conclusions about past MHA.
Neu
Urs
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ProClim, Swiss Academy of Sciences, Schwarztorstrasse 9, CH-3007 Bern, Switzerland. neu@scnat.ch