Modeling temperature effects on mortality: multiple segmented relationships with common break points.
We present a model for estimation of temperature effects on mortality that is able to capture jointly the typical features of every temperature-death relationship, that is, nonlinearity and delayed effect of cold and heat over a few days. Using a segmented approximation along with a doubly penalized spline-based distributed lag parameterization, estimates and relevant standard errors of the cold- and heat-related risks and the heat tolerance are provided. The model is applied to data from Milano, Italy.
Muggeo
Vito M R
VM
Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche e Matematiche S. Vianelli-Università di Palermo, viale delle Scienze, Palermo, Italy. vmuggeo@dssm.unipa.it
D000465:Algorithms; D003080:Cold Temperature; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D016014:Linear Models; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D017711:Nonlinear Dynamics; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D014887:Weather