title: Determinants of the survival benefit of lung transplantation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Although chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is the first indication for lung transplantation, the benefit of the procedure in terms of survival remains debated.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the determinants of the survival benefit of lung transplantation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using information from the United Network for Organ Sharing database on 8,182 patients, we developed an approach based on numerical simulations to estimate the survival effect of lung transplantation.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The main outcome measure was the difference between median survival with transplantation and that without transplantation measured from time of transplant list registration. Survival benefit was greater with double than with single lung transplantation (mean difference, 307 d [95% confidence interval, 217-523]). With double lung transplantation, 44.6% of patients would gain 1 year or more, 29.4% would gain or lose less than 1 year, and 26% would lose 1 year or more. Major determinants of the survival effect of transplantation were systolic pulmonary artery pressure, FEV(1), body mass index, exercise capacity, functional status, and the need for continuous mechanical ventilation or oxygen. For instance, 79% of patients with an FEV(1) less than 16% of the predicted value would gain 1 year or more with double lung transplantation as compared with only 11% of patients with an FEV(1) of more than 25%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We identified several factors associated with the survival benefit of lung transplantation. External validation of our models is required before translating these results into clinical practice.
authors.affiliation: Service de Pneumologie B et Transplantation Pulmonaire, Hôpital Bichat, 46 rue Henri Huchard, 75018 Paris, France. gabriel.thabut@bch.aphp.fr
authors.forename: Gabriel
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Thabut
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ravaud
authors.forename: Jason D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Christie
authors.forename: Yves
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Castier
authors.forename: Michel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fournier
authors.forename: Hervé
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Mal
authors.forename: Guy
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Lesèche
authors.forename: Raphaël
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Porcher
mesh_terms: D003657:Decision Making; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016040:Lung Transplantation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000150:complications / Q000601:surgery*; D012042:Registries; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014481:United States; D014850:Waiting Lists