title: Can clinical factors at presentation be used to predict outcome of treatment with methotrexate in patients with early inflammatory polyarthritis?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Methotrexate (MTX) is the first choice conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) for rheumatoid arthritis. It is not universally effective, however; although to date it is not possible to predict with any accuracy which patients will respond to treatment. The aim of this analysis was to examine whether clinical and genetic variables could be used to predict response to MTX.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR), a primary care based inception cohort of patients with inflammatory polyarthritis, were eligible for this analysis if they were commenced on MTX as their first DMARD within 3 months of their baseline visit and had at least 2 years of follow-up data. Outcome on MTX was defined as: (1) stopped for adverse events; (2) stopped for inefficacy or second DMARD added; (3) stopped for other reasons; or (4) remained on MTX monotherapy. Multiple logistic regression was used to establish which variables (including demographics, disease activity and Health Assessment Questionnaire score) predicted stopping monotherapy for inefficacy or adverse event (with those remaining on treatment taken as the referent category). The area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (AUC ROC), were used to determine how accurate the model was at predicting outcome.
  
  
  RESULTS
  309 patients were included in this analysis. At 1 year (2 years), 34 (46) patients had stopped for adverse events and 25 (49) had either stopped monotherapy for inefficacy or had a second DMARD added. 231 (188) patients remained on MTX monotherapy. The strongest predictor of inefficacy at both time points was shared epitope positivity: odds ratios (OR) 5.8 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.3 to 25.6) at 1 year, OR 3.0 (95% CI 1.3 to 7.3) at 2 years. High Health Assessment Questionnaire score (OR 1.84 95% CI 1.12 to 3.01) and female gender (OR 2.2, 95% CI 0.92 to 5.28) were associated with adverse events on MTX at 1 year. However, even the most optimal combinations of the factors analysed were only weakly predictive of treatment outcome: AUC ROC for adverse events 0.68 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.78) and for inefficacy AUC ROC 0.71 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.81).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Within this cohort, routine clinical and laboratory factors were poor at predicting outcome of treatment with MTX. Given the major therapeutic advantage to be derived from accurate prediction of treatment outcome, further studies will need to investigate novel biological and other markers.
authors.affiliation: arc Epidemiology Unit, University of Manchester, UK.
authors.forename: S L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Hider
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Silman
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Thomson
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lunt
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Bunn
authors.forename: D P M
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Symmons
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D018501:Antirheumatic Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D019540:Area Under Curve; D001168:Arthritis / Q000188:drug therapy*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004359:Drug Therapy, Combination; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008727:Methotrexate / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D012737:Sex Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D017211:Treatment Failure
chemical_list: D018501:Antirheumatic Agents; D008727:Methotrexate