External validation of prognostic models among cancer patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery.
BACKGROUND
The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive accuracy of different scoring systems on patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery.


METHODS
The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II or III, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, the Mortality Probability Model II, and the Colo-rectal POSSUM scoring systems were applied to 102 patients who underwent colorectal resection for cancer. Validation of scoring systems was tested by assessing calibration and discrimination. Calibration was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and the corresponding calibration curves. Evaluation of the discriminative capability of both models was performed using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis.


RESULTS
Overall, 17 deaths occurred. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II showed good calibration (x(2) = 1.079, P = .982) and discrimination (areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve .83).


CONCLUSIONS
These data suggest that the SAPS II scoring system was accurate in predicting outcome for patients undergoing emergency colorectal surgery.
Ertan
Tamer
T
Department of Fifth Surgery, Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital, Ankara, Turkey.
Yoldas
Omer
O
Kilic
Yusuf Alper
YA
Kilic
Mehmet
M
Göcmen
Erdal
E
Koc
Mahmut
M
Tez
Mesut
M
D018806:APACHE; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003082:Colectomy; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000601:surgery*; D004638:Emergency Treatment; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010343:Patient Admission; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012720:Severity of Illness Index