Cardiovascular outcomes in the outpatient kidney transplant clinic: the Framingham risk score revisited.
OBJECTIVE
Cardiovascular disease is an important cause of morbidity and death in kidney transplant recipients. This study examines the Framingham risk score's ability to predict cardiac and stroke events. Because cyclosporine and tacrolimus have different cardiovascular risk profiles, these agents were also examined.


METHODS
A prospective cohort evaluation of 540 patients were followed for a median of 4.7 yr in an outpatient kidney transplant clinic. Baseline Framingham risk scores were calculated and all cardiovascular outcomes were collected.


RESULTS
Rates per 100 patient-years were 1.79 for cardiac and 0.78 for stroke events. The ratio of observed-to-predicted cardiac events was 1.64-fold higher [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 2.94] for the cohort, 2.74-fold higher (95% CI 1.70 to 4.24) in patients age 45 to 60 with prior cardiac disease or diabetes mellitus, but not higher in other age subgroups. Stroke was not increased above predicted. Risk scores for cardiac (c = 0.65, P = 0.003) and stroke (c = 0.71, P = 0.004) events were modest predictors. 10-yr event scores for cardiac (9.3 versus 13.5%, P < 0.001) and stroke (7.1 versus 10.0%, P = 0.002) were lower for tacrolimus compared with cyclosporine-treated patients. However observed cardiac events were higher in tacrolimus recipients (2.50, 95% CI 1.09 to 5.90) in an adjusted Cox model.


CONCLUSIONS
Although risk scores are only modest predictors, patients with the highest event rates are easily identified. Treating high-risk patients with cardioprotective medications should remain a priority.
Kiberd
Bryce
B
Department of Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. bryce.kiberd@dal.ca
Panek
Romuald
R
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000554:Ambulatory Care Facilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D002317:Cardiovascular Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D016572:Cyclosporine / Q000009:adverse effects; D048909:Diabetes Complications / Q000209:etiology; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006331:Heart Diseases / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D007166:Immunosuppressive Agents / Q000009:adverse effects; D016030:Kidney Transplantation / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control; D016559:Tacrolimus / Q000009:adverse effects; D013997:Time Factors
D002317:Cardiovascular Agents; D007166:Immunosuppressive Agents; D016572:Cyclosporine; D016559:Tacrolimus