title: Predicting the probability of deferred radical treatment for localised prostate cancer managed by active surveillance.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Outcome data from a prospective study of active surveillance of localised prostate cancer were analysed to identify factors, present at the time of diagnosis, that predict subsequent radical treatment.
  
  
  METHODS
  Eligible patients had clinical stage T1-T2a, N0-Nx, M0-Mx adenocarcinoma of the prostate with serum PSA<15 ng/ml, Gleason score <or= 7, primary Gleason grade <or= 3, and % positive biopsy cores (pbc) <or= 50%. Monitoring included serial PSA measurement and repeat prostate biopsies. Radical treatment was initiated in the event of biochemical progression (PSA velocity > 1 ng/ml/yr) or histological progression (primary Gleason grade >or= 4, or %pbc > 50%). Multivariate Cox regression analysis of baseline variables was performed with respect to time to radical treatment.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The 326 men recruited from 2002 to 2006 have been followed for a median of 22 mo. Median age was 67 yr, and median initial PSA (iPSA) 6.4 ng/ml. Sixty-five patients (20%) had deferred radical treatment, 16 (5%) changed to watchful waiting because of increasing comorbidity, 7 (2%) died of other causes, and 238 (73%) remain on surveillance. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, the free/total PSA ratio (p<0.001) and clinical T stage (p=0.006) were independent determinants of time to radical treatment.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In addition to established prognostic factors, the free/total PSA ratio may predict time to radical treatment in patients with untreated, localised prostate cancer managed by active surveillance. This possibility warrants further study.
authors.affiliation: Academic Urology Unit, Institute of Cancer Research, Royal Marsden Hospital, Surrey, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Nicholas J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: van As
authors.forename: Andrew R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Norman
authors.forename: Karen
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.forename: Vincent S
authors.initials: VS
authors.lastname: Khoo
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.forename: Robert A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Huddart
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Horwich
authors.forename: David P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Dearnaley
authors.forename: Christopher C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Parker
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000097:blood / Q000628:therapy*; D000368:Aged; D005240:Feasibility Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen / Q000097:blood; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000097:blood / Q000628:therapy*
chemical_list: D017430:Prostate-Specific Antigen