Alcohol outlet density and assault: a spatial analysis.
OBJECTIVE
A large number of studies have found links between alcohol outlet densities and assault rates in local areas. This study tests a variety of specifications of this link, focusing in particular on the possibility of a non-linear relationship.


METHODS
Cross-sectional data on police-recorded assaults during high alcohol hours, liquor outlets and socio-demographic characteristics were obtained for 223 postcodes in Melbourne, Australia. These data were used to construct a series of models testing the nature of the relationship between alcohol outlet density and assault, while controlling for socio-demographic factors and spatial auto-correlation. Four types of relationship were examined: a normal linear relationship between outlet density and assault, a non-linear relationship with potential threshold or saturation densities, a relationship mediated by the socio-economic status of the neighbourhood and a relationship which takes into account the effect of outlets in surrounding neighbourhoods.


RESULTS
The model positing non-linear relationships between outlet density and assaults was found to fit the data most effectively. An increasing accelerating effect for the density of hotel (pub) licences was found, suggesting a plausible upper limit for these licences in Melbourne postcodes.


CONCLUSIONS
The study finds positive relationships between outlet density and assault rates and provides evidence that this relationship is non-linear and thus has critical values at which licensing policy-makers can impose density limits.
Livingston
Michael
M
AER Centre for Alcohol Policy Research, Turning Point Alcohol and Drug Centre, Fitzroy, Australia. michaell@turningpoint.org.au
D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology*; D000434:Alcoholic Beverages / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D003132:Commerce / Q000592:standards*; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003710:Demography; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008004:Licensure; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014504:Urban Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014739:Victoria / Q000453:epidemiology; D014754:Violence / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data