title: Incremental predictive value of vascular assessments combined with the Framingham Risk Score for prediction of coronary events in subjects of low-intermediate risk.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In patients with low-intermediate risk, the use of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) may not allow accurate prediction of the occurrence of coronary events.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To determine whether non-invasive vascular sonographic assessments add value to the FRS for prediction of coronary events.
  
  
  METHODS
  Brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation (FMD), carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and the presence of carotid plaque in 70 male subjects (mean (SD) age 62 (9) years) with a low-intermediate FRS who presented with a recent coronary event were evaluated and compared with those in 35 male controls matched for age (mean age 60 (9) years).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Patients with a recent coronary event had a significantly higher FRS than controls. They had a significantly lower FMD (3.56 (2.41)% vs 5.18 (2.69)%, p = 0.003) and significantly higher prevalence of carotid plaque (67% vs 40%, p = 0.008), but there was no significant difference in mean maximum IMT between the two groups (1.01 (0.28) vs 0.96 (0.14) mm, p = 0.32). Multivariate analysis revealed that FMD < or =4.75% was an independent predictor of an acute coronary event. Of the three vascular markers, FMD < or =4.75% and presence of carotid plaque provided the best diagnostic accuracy for a coronary event, with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 and 0.64 (p = 0.001 and p = 0.033), respectively, based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Furthermore, incorporating carotid plaque or FMD < or =4.75% into the FRS (AUC = 0.72 and AUC = 0.78) provided incremental benefit in risk stratification over FRS alone (AUC = 0.66) (p = 0.008 and p = 0.007, for comparison of difference in two receiver operating characteristic curves).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Incorporating a measure of FMD or carotid plaque burden with FRS significantly increases the accuracy of predicting coronary events in subjects of low-intermediate risk and hence should be considered as additional investigations to improve coronary risk assessment.
authors: Cardiology Division, Department of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Queen Mary Hospital, Hong Kong, China.
authors: K-K
authors: KK
authors: Lau
authors: Y-H
authors: YH
authors: Chan
authors: K-H
authors: KH
authors: Yiu
authors: S
authors: S
authors: Tam
authors: S-W
authors: SW
authors: Li
authors: C-P
authors: CP
authors: Lau
authors: H-F
authors: HF
authors: Tse
mesh_terms: D001916:Brachial Artery / Q000473:pathology*; D002339:Carotid Arteries / Q000473:pathology*; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000473:pathology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D017539:Tunica Intima / Q000473:pathology*