Homicide and alcoholic psychoses in Belarus, 1970-2005.
BACKGROUND
The association between alcohol and homicide is well documented. Research evidence suggests an important role for cultural and social context in the alcohol-homicide association.


OBJECTIVE
To estimate the aggregate level effect of alcohol consumption on homicide rate in the former Soviet Slavic republic of Belarus.


METHODS
Trends in homicide and alcoholic psychoses morbidity rate from 1970 to 2005 in Belarus were analyzed employing ARIMA analysis in order to assess the bivariate relationship between the two time series.


RESULTS
The results of time series analysis suggest a close relationship between homicide and alcoholic psychoses rate at zero lag.


CONCLUSIONS
This study replicates the previous findings that suggested a close link between alcohol and homicide at the aggregate level. The outcome of the present findings suggests that alcohol is responsible for the fluctuation in homicide rate over time in the former Soviet republic of Belarus. This study also supports the hypothesis that homicide and alcohol are closely connected in the prevailing culture with its intoxication-oriented drinking pattern.
Razvodovsky
Yury E
YE
Grodno State Medical University, 230015, str. Gorky 80, Belarus. razvodovsky@grsmu.by
D000435:Alcoholic Intoxication / Q000453:epidemiology; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003466:Cultural Characteristics; D006708:Homicide / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D011604:Psychoses, Alcoholic / Q000453:epidemiology*; D002094:Republic of Belarus; D012307:Risk Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic