[Ulcer disease: current features and prognosis for the near future].
OBJECTIVE
To make prognosis of ulcer morbidity and lethality from its complications for the near future basing on the trends in ulcer morbidity and lethality for the last 10 years; to assess ulcer patients' followup quality and coverage.


METHODS
Time series statistics of general, primary ulcer morbidity and lethality from ulcer complications in the Udmurt republic for the last 10 years have been analysed as well as expert evaluation of the treatment quality and follow-up of ulcer patients by 156 outpatients' cards and 118 disease histories.


RESULTS
General and primary gastrointestinal ulcer incidence in Udmurt republic in 1992-2001 decreased significantly but ulcer morbidity did not change. Lethality from ulcer complications rose 1.8-fold. The predicted lethality rise in 2003-2006 proved valid.


CONCLUSIONS
If social and economic conditions in the republic do not change and public health service reforms remain low effective, further deterioration of the above lethality is predicted.
Vakhrushev
Ia M
IaM
Efremova
L I
LI
Efremova
V A
VA
D000328:Adult; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D010437:Peptic Ulcer / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends