title: Predictive factors of deep abdominal complications after operation for hydatid cyst of the liver: 15 years of experience with 672 patients.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Operations are the mainstay of liver hydatid cyst (LHC) treatment. Operations are still associated with high morbidity and mortality because of specific postoperative complications (bile leaks, bilomas, deep bleeding, and deep suppurations) and deep abdominal complications (DAC). The aim of this study was to identify the predictive factors of DAC after LHC operation.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a retrospective study of 672 patients with LHC treated at the Surgery Department "A" at Ibn Sina University Hospital, Rabat, Morocco. Specific morbidity (DAC) and 30 variables were assessed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed to identify predictive factors for DAC. An associated risk scoring system was developed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Six hundred sixty-four patients underwent operations. Mortality rate was 0.8% (n = 5) and DAC rate was 18.4% (n = 121). Five independent predictive factors of DAC after LHC operation were retained, ie, presence of cyst preoperative complications (odds ratio [OR] = 3.10; 95% CI, 1.85 to 5.17), 3 or more cysts in the liver (OR = 2.55; 95% CI, 1.42 to 4.59), thick pericyst (OR = 2.59; 95% CI, 1.27 to 5.29), biliary fistula (OR = 2.27; 95% CI, 1.38 to 3.72), and capitonnage alone as residual cavity management (OR = 2.23; 95% CI, 1.12 to 4.44). Multivariate model showed a good fit. Discriminating ability of the model was fair. In theoretical risk, scores ranged from 0 to 5. When the score was 2 or more, sensitivity of the scoring model was 80.3%, specificity was 58.5%, positive predictive value was 30.3%, and negative predictive value was 93%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Identification of these five factors will allow more appropriate therapeutic care after LHC operation.
authors.affiliation: Surgery Department A, Ibn Sina Hospital, Rabat, Morocco. oelmalki@hotmail.fr
authors.forename: Hadj Omar
authors.initials: HO
authors.lastname: El Malki
authors.forename: Yasser
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: El Mejdoubi
authors.forename: Amine
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Souadka
authors.forename: Raouf
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mohsine
authors.forename: Lahcen
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ifrine
authors.forename: Redouane
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Abouqal
authors.forename: Abdelkader
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Belkouchi
mesh_terms: D018784:Abdominal Abscess / Q000209:etiology; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001646:Bile; D001658:Biliary Fistula / Q000209:etiology; D013505:Digestive System Surgical Procedures / Q000009:adverse effects*; D004444:Echinococcosis, Hepatic / Q000150:complications* / Q000601:surgery*; D005260:Female; D006470:Hemorrhage / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010538:Peritonitis / Q000209:etiology; D012086:Reoperation; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors