title: Prediction of outbreaks of post-traumatic stress disorder after large-scale terrorist acts.
abstract: An original computer technology--a mathematical model and computer programs running under Windows--for the operative assessment of outbreaks of post-traumatic stress disorders (PTSD) and prediction of their sequelae among victims of terrorist attacks is described. The structure of the mathematical model is described, along with the relationship between the mathematical model and the calculating algorithm for prediction of the development of outbreaks of PTSD. The computer program allowed predictions of the numbers of mental disorders with subsequent behavioral impairment, addictive disorders, personality changes, and signs of maladaptation in victims of terrorist acts. A model of an epidemic of mass panic in a population sensitive to negative information on the consequences of terrorist acts is described.
authors.affiliation: Scientific Center for Mental Health, Russian Academy of Medical Science, Russia.
authors.forename: V S
authors.initials: VS
authors.lastname: Yastrebov
authors.forename: B V
authors.initials: BV
authors.lastname: Boev
mesh_terms: D000223:Adaptation, Psychological; D003198:Computer Simulation; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D013313:Stress Disorders, Post-Traumatic / Q000453:epidemiology*; D023481:Terrorism / Q000523:psychology*