title: Age inconsistency in the American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines for acute otitis media.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The American Academy of Pediatrics acute otitis media guidelines could reduce antibiotic use. The objective was to compare strategies for diagnosing and treating otitis: (1) a commonly used, 2-criteria strategy, (2) the guidelines' 3-criteria algorithm, and (3) initially watching without antibiotics.
  
  
  METHODS
  A decision analysis was performed with literature-based parameter. The target population was children presenting to primary care physicians with possible otitis media. Main outcomes were antibiotic use, sick days, mild adverse drug events, and number needed to treat/avoided sick day.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For children 2 to <6 months of age, compared with the 2-criteria strategy, guideline use predicted 21% less antibiotic use, 13% more sick days, and 23% fewer adverse drug events; the number needed to treat for the 2-criteria strategy versus the American Academy of Pediatrics strategy was 1.2 children per avoided sick day. For children 6 to <24 months of age, guideline use, compared with the 2-criteria strategy, predicted 26% less antibiotic use, 14% more sick days, and 28% fewer adverse drug events; the number needed to treat for the 2-criteria strategy versus the American Academy of Pediatrics strategy was 1.4 children per avoided sick day. For children >2 years of age, guideline use, compared with the 2-criteria strategy, predicted 67% less antibiotic use, 4% more sick days, and 68% fewer adverse drug events. The number needed to treat for the guideline strategy versus the watch strategy was 6.3 children per avoided sick day; that for the 2-criteria strategy versus the guideline strategy was 12.3. Guideline use for children <2 years implies that our number needed to treat to avoid a sick day is <1.4; for children >2, guideline use implies we are willing to treat at least 6.3 children to avoid a sick day. Thus, the guidelines imply a greater willingness to treat older children, compared with younger children.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines are inconsistent in their outcomes across age groups. Guideline implementation under age 2 reduces antibiotic use but at a relatively heavy cost of sick days and parental missed work days. This trade-off may be particularly unfavorable for working parents, who might reasonably prefer greater antibiotic use.
authors.affiliation: Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, 108 Blockley Hall, 423 Guardian Dr, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. meropols@mail.med.upenn.edu
authors.forename: Sharon B
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Meropol
authors.forename: Henry A
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Glick
authors.forename: David A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Asch
mesh_terms: D000047:Academies and Institutes; D000367:Age Factors; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D016001:Confidence Intervals; D004305:Dose-Response Relationship, Drug; D004334:Drug Administration Schedule; D004363:Drug Utilization; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D019370:Observation / Q000379:methods; D010033:Otitis Media / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D010034:Otitis Media with Effusion / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology; D010372:Pediatrics / Q000592:standards / Q000639:trends; D017410:Practice Guidelines as Topic / Q000592:standards*; D011336:Probability; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents