title: Predicting relapse in Crohn's disease: a biopsychosocial model.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Crohn's disease (CD) is a chronic relapsing inflammatory bowel disorder. Both biological and psychosocial factors may modulate the illness experience.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to identify clinical, biological and psychosocial parameters as predictors of clinical relapse in quiescent CD.
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients in medically induced remission were followed prospectively for 1 year, or less if they relapsed. Disease characteristics were determined at baseline. Serum cytokines, anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies, C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate and intestinal permeability were measured every 3 months. Psychological distress, perceived stress, minor life stressors and coping strategies were measured monthly. A time-dependent multivariate Cox regression model determined predictors of time to relapse.
  
  
  RESULTS
  101 patients (60 females, 41 males) were recruited. Fourteen withdrew and 37 relapsed. CRP (HR = 1.5 per 10 mg/l, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.9, p = 0.007), fistulising disease (HR = 3.2, 95% CI, 1.1 to 9.4, p = 0.04), colitis (HR = 3.5 95% CI 1.2 to 9.9, p = 0.02) and the interaction between perceived stress and avoidance coping (HR = 7.0 per 5 unit increase for both scales, 95% CI 2.3 to 21.8, p = 0.003) were predictors of earlier relapse.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In quiescent CD, a higher CRP, fistulising disease behaviour and disease confined to the colon were independent predictors of relapse. Moreover, patients under conditions of low stress and who scored low on avoidance coping (ie, did not engage in social diversion or distraction) were least likely to relapse. This study supports a biopsychosocial model of CD exacerbation.
authors.affiliation: McGill University Health Centre, 687 Pine Avenue West, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, H3A 1A1. alain.bitton@muhc.mcgill.ca
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bitton
authors.forename: P L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Dobkin
authors.forename: M D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Edwardes
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Sewitch
authors.forename: J B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Meddings
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rawal
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cohen
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Vermeire
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Dufresne
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Franchimont
authors.forename: G E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Wild
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001799:Blood Sedimentation; D002097:C-Reactive Protein / Q000378:metabolism*; D003424:Crohn Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D010539:Permeability; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012008:Recurrence; D013315:Stress, Psychological / Q000097:blood* / Q000209:etiology
chemical_list: D002097:C-Reactive Protein