title: Predictors of change in estimated GFR: a population-based 7-year follow-up from the Tromso study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Chronic kidney disease is associated with increased cardiovascular mortality, and even mild impairment of renal function is a cardiovascular risk factor. Several studies have investigated the risk factors for the development of end-stage renal disease, but little is known about predictors of change in renal function in the general population.
  
  
  METHODS
  The present study included 2249 men and 2192 women without signs of kidney disease at baseline who were followed for 7 years from 1994 to 1995 in the Tromsø Study. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated from the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study equation. Gender-specific multiple linear regression analyses were used to assess predictors of change in eGFR (DeltaGFR).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Change in eGFR, measured in ml/min/1.73 m(2)/year, was associated with systolic blood pressure (SBP) [beta-value for a 10-mmHg increase in SBP, men = -0.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.18 to -0.09; women = -0.07, 95% CI = -0.11 to -0.03] and fibrinogen [beta-value for 1 SD increase in fibrinogen, men (1 SD: 0.85 g/L) = -0.12, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.03; women (1 SD: 0.80) = -0.11, 95% CI -0.20 to -0.02]. High alcohol consumption in men and high physical activity in women predicted an increase in eGFR. Higher albumin/creatinine ratio was associated with a decline in eGFR in men only.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Some risk factors for change in GFR seem to be gender specific but both high SBP and high levels of fibrinogen contribute to a more rapid decline in GFR for both men and women.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Innlandet Hospital Trust, Olav Aukrustsvej 6 N-2618, Lillehammer, Norway. kronborg@broadpark.no
authors.forename: Jens
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kronborg
authors.forename: Marit
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Solbu
authors.forename: Inger
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Njølstad
authors.forename: Ingrid
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Toft
authors.forename: Bjørn O
authors.initials: BO
authors.lastname: Eriksen
authors.forename: Trond
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Jenssen
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000428:Alcohol Drinking; D001794:Blood Pressure; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000503:physiopathology; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D005340:Fibrinogen / Q000032:analysis; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005919:Glomerular Filtration Rate / Q000502:physiology; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009664:Norway / Q000453:epidemiology; D051436:Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000503:physiopathology*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D005340:Fibrinogen; D003404:Creatinine