title: [Estimation of the incidence of tuberculosis in The Netherlands in 2030].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the number of cases of tuberculosis (TB) in 2030 for the purpose of planning future TB control.
  
  
  METHODS
  Statistical modelling in 5-year intervals until 2030.
  
  
  METHODS
  The number of Dutch TB cases infected by a Dutch source was estimated using a survival model. The number ofnon-Dutch patients was estimated by calculating the proportion of culture-positive TB patients among first-generation immigrants in 2005 and applying this proportion to the projected size of the non-Dutch population. It was assumed that each non-Dutch TB patient infected by a non-Dutch source would cause one infection in the population in The Netherlands.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The estimated number of TB cases is expected to decrease to 877 in 2010. Only a limited decrease in the number of TB patients is expected after 2010 as the number of non-Dutch TB cases increases due to increased immigration. This increase negates the expected decrease in Dutch TB patients infected by a Dutch source. In 2030, non-Dutch TB cases will account for 85% of all TB cases. The proportion of non-Dutch TB cases is greater in the 4 largest cities, i.e. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht (89%) than in the rest of The Netherlands (76%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The decrease in TB incidence observed over the past several years may cease by 2010 due to an increase in non-Dutch TB patients as a result of increased immigration. However, the confidence intervals associated with these estimates were large. Future TB control efforts must be organised in a flexible way so that they can be adapted to changing epidemiological situations.
authors.affiliation: KNCV Tuberculosefonds, Parkstraat 17, 2514 JD Den Haag. vanlethf@kncvtbc.nl
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: van Leth
authors.forename: N A
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: Kalisvaart
authors.forename: C G M
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Erkens
authors.forename: M W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Borgdorff
mesh_terms: D004641:Emigration and Immigration / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control