[Estimation of the incidence of tuberculosis in The Netherlands in 2030].
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the number of cases of tuberculosis (TB) in 2030 for the purpose of planning future TB control.


METHODS
Statistical modelling in 5-year intervals until 2030.


METHODS
The number of Dutch TB cases infected by a Dutch source was estimated using a survival model. The number ofnon-Dutch patients was estimated by calculating the proportion of culture-positive TB patients among first-generation immigrants in 2005 and applying this proportion to the projected size of the non-Dutch population. It was assumed that each non-Dutch TB patient infected by a non-Dutch source would cause one infection in the population in The Netherlands.


RESULTS
The estimated number of TB cases is expected to decrease to 877 in 2010. Only a limited decrease in the number of TB patients is expected after 2010 as the number of non-Dutch TB cases increases due to increased immigration. This increase negates the expected decrease in Dutch TB patients infected by a Dutch source. In 2030, non-Dutch TB cases will account for 85% of all TB cases. The proportion of non-Dutch TB cases is greater in the 4 largest cities, i.e. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht (89%) than in the rest of The Netherlands (76%).


CONCLUSIONS
The decrease in TB incidence observed over the past several years may cease by 2010 due to an increase in non-Dutch TB patients as a result of increased immigration. However, the confidence intervals associated with these estimates were large. Future TB control efforts must be organised in a flexible way so that they can be adapted to changing epidemiological situations.
van Leth
F
F
KNCV Tuberculosefonds, Parkstraat 17, 2514 JD Den Haag. vanlethf@kncvtbc.nl
Kalisvaart
N A
NA
Erkens
C G M
CG
Borgdorff
M W
MW
D004641:Emigration and Immigration / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control