A simple explanation for the low impact of border control as a countermeasure to the spread of an infectious disease.
A simple model for the effect of border control or travel restrictions is proposed. It can be used to predict the corresponding results in quite complex disease spread models and has the advantage of providing easy qualitative understanding of the effects of this kind of intervention.
Scalia Tomba
Gianpaolo
G
Department of Mathematics, University of Rome Tor Vergata, Via Ricerca Scientifica 1, 00133 Roma, Italy. scaliato@mat.uniroma2.it
Wallinga
Jacco
J
D000465:Algorithms; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods*; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission; D008954:Models, Biological; D014195:Travel