title: Adults' perceived prevalence of enteric fever predicts laboratory-validated incidence of typhoid fever in children.
abstract: This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence of typhoid in children based on adults' perception of prevalence of enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children, aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were confirmed with a positive Salmonella Typhi culture of the blood sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per 100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and 454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000= -2.6946 + 7.2296 x reported prevalence of enteric fever (%) (F=31.7, p<0.01; R2=0.992). Using adults' perception of prevalence of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to facilitate prevention and control of the disease.
authors.affiliation: Carman and Ann Adams Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Michigan, Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI 48201, USA. jimchen@med.wayne.edu
authors.forename: Xinguang
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Bonita
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Stanton
authors.forename: Al
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pach
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Nyamete
authors.forename: R Leon
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Ochiai
authors.forename: Linda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kaljee
authors.forename: Baiqing
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Dong
authors.forename: Dipika
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Sur
authors.forename: S K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Bhattacharya
authors.forename: Siti Sapardiyah
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Santoso
authors.forename: Magdarina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Agtini
authors.forename: Zahid
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Memon
authors.forename: Zulfiqar
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Bhutta
authors.forename: Canh Gia
authors.initials: CG
authors.lastname: Do
authors.forename: Lorenz
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: von Seidlein
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Clemens
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001208:Asia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003906:Developing Countries; D005243:Feces / Q000382:microbiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D010465:Perception; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012485:Salmonella typhi / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D014435:Typhoid Fever / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology*