title: Can assessors and therapists predict the outcome of long-term psychotherapy in borderline personality disorder?
abstract: Surprisingly few studies have investigated the accuracy of prognostic assessments of therapy outcome by clinicians. The objective of the present study was to investigate the relationship between clinicians' prognostic assessments and patient characteristics and treatment outcome. Seventy-one patients with a borderline personality disorder randomly allocated to schema-focused therapy (SFT) or transference-focused psychotherapy (TFP) were assessed every 3 months for 3 years. Prognostic assessments proved to be unrelated to patients' biographical (i.e., age, gender, education level, and employment level) and clinical characteristics (i.e., number of Axis I and Axis II diagnoses, and severity of psychiatric symptoms or borderline personality pathology). Clinical assessors as well as therapists rated the probability of success for SFT to be higher than for TFP. Prospective assessments of assessors and therapists accurately predicted different indices of outcome above and independent of patient characteristics. The prediction of outcome in the TFP condition in particular proved to be valid. Identifying prognostic markers of treatment outcome as used by clinicians in their prognostic assessments may improve current prediction models and patient-treatment matching.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology and Psychiatry, Leiden University, Wassenaarseweg 52, 2333 AK Leiden, The Netherlands. spinhoven@fsw.leidenuniv.nl
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Spinhoven
authors.forename: Josephine
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Giesen-Bloo
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: van Dyck
authors.forename: Arnoud
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arntz
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001883:Borderline Personality Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy*; D002983:Clinical Competence; D039721:Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010555:Personality Inventory; D011336:Probability; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D011570:Psychiatry / Q000592:standards; D011586:Psychology, Clinical / Q000592:standards*; D011613:Psychotherapy / Q000379:methods* / Q000592:standards; D011616:Psychotherapy, Multiple / Q000379:methods / Q000592:standards; D014167:Transference, Psychology; D016896:Treatment Outcome