Modeling the joint epidemics of TB and HIV in a South African township.
We present a simple mathematical model with six compartments for the interaction between HIV and TB epidemics. Using data from a township near Cape Town, South Africa, where the prevalence of HIV is above 20% and where the TB notification rate is close to 2,000 per 100,000 per year, we estimate some of the model parameters and study how various control measures might change the course of these epidemics. Condom promotion, increased TB detection and TB preventive therapy have a clear positive effect. The impact of antiretroviral therapy on the incidence of HIV is unclear and depends on the extent to which it reduces sexual transmission. However, our analysis suggests that it will greatly reduce the TB notification rate.
Bacaër
Nicolas
N
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, 32 avenue Henri Varagnat, 93143 Bondy, France. bacaer@bondy.ird.fr
Ouifki
Rachid
R
Pretorius
Carel
C
Wood
Robin
R
Williams
Brian
B
D023241:Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active; D000995:Antitubercular Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D015897:Comorbidity; D017280:Condoms; D018563:Disease Notification; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000517:prevention & control; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007538:Isoniazid / Q000627:therapeutic use; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology*
D000995:Antitubercular Agents; D007538:Isoniazid