title: Rate of foot-and-mouth disease virus transmission by carriers quantified from experimental data.
abstract: Upon infection with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) a considerable number of animals become carriers of the virus. These carriers are considered to be a risk for new outbreaks, but the rate at which these animals can transmit the infection has not been quantified. An analysis was carried out using data from previously published experiments in order to quantify the transmission rate parameter beta of FMDV infection from carriers to susceptible animals. The parameter beta was estimated at 0.0256 (likelihood-based confidence interval: 0.008-0.059) infections per carrier per month. Moreover, analysis of published experimental data indicates that the proportion of FMDV carriers decreases at a rate of 0.115 per month. Both parameters obtained from this study are useful for quantitative risk analyses of the trade of animals from FMDV-infected areas or the lifting of vaccination programs.
authors.affiliation: Department of Livestock, Ministry of Agriculture, District Livestock Sector, Lhuntse, Bhutan.
authors.lastname: Tenzin
authors.forename: Aldo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Dekker
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Vernooij
authors.forename: Annemarie
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bouma
authors.forename: Arjan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Stegeman
mesh_terms: D032761:Animal Experimentation; D000818:Animals; D000829:Animals, Domestic; D000835:Animals, Wild; D002353:Carrier State / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000635:transmission*; D018562:Disease Transmission, Infectious / Q000662:veterinary; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D029544:Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D013223:Statistics as Topic