title: Quantitative risk assessment of foot-and-mouth disease introduction into Spain via importation of live animals.
abstract: Spain has been a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD)-free country since 1986. However, the FMD epidemics that recently affected several European Union (EU) member countries demonstrated that the continent is still at high risk for FMD virus (FMDV) introduction, and that the potential consequences of those epidemics are socially and financially devastating. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the risk of FMDV introduction into Spain. Results suggest that provinces in north-eastern Spain are at higher risk for FMDV introduction, that an FMD epidemic in Spain is more likely to occur via the import of pigs than through the import of cattle, sheep, or goats, and that a sixfold increase in the proportion of premises that quarantine pigs prior to their introduction into the operation will reduce the probability of FMDV introduction via import of live pigs into Spain by 50%. Allocation of resources towards surveillance activities in regions and types of operations at high risk for FMDV introduction and into the development of policies to promote quarantine and other biosecurity activities in susceptible operations will decrease the probability of FMD introduction into the country and will strengthen the chances of success of the Spanish FMD prevention program.
authors.affiliation: Animal Health Department, Complutense University of Madrid, Av. Puerta de Hierro s/n, Madrid, Spain. beatriz@sanidadanimal.info
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Martínez-López
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Perez
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: De la Torre
authors.forename: J M Sánchez-Vizcaíno
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Rodriguez
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D003132:Commerce; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D015511:Goat Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D006041:Goats; D007391:International Cooperation; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence; D011790:Quarantine / Q000379:methods / Q000662:veterinary*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance / Q000662:veterinary; D012756:Sheep; D012757:Sheep Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D013552:Swine; D013553:Swine Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control