Impact of public health interventions in controlling the spread of SARS: modelling of intervention scenarios.
A variety of intervention measures exist to prevent and control diseases with pandemic potential like SARS or pandemic influenza. They differ in their approach and effectiveness in reducing the number of cases getting infected. The effects of different intervention measures were investigated by a mathematical modelling approach, with comparisons based on the effective reproduction number (R(e)). The analysis showed that early case detection followed by strict isolation could control a SARS outbreak. Tracing close contacts of cases and contacts of exposed health care workers additionally reduces the R(e). Tracing casual contacts and measures aiming to decrease social interaction were less effective in reducing the number of SARS cases. The study emphasizes the importance of early identification and isolation of SARS cases to reduce the number of people getting infected. However, doing so transfers cases to health care facilities, making infection control measures in hospitals essential to avoid nosocomial spread. The modelling approach applied in this study is useful for analysing interactions of different intervention measures for reducing the R(e) of SARS.
Krumkamp
Ralf
R
Public Health Research Department, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Lohbrügger Kirchstr. 65, 21033 Hamburg, Germany.
Duerr
Hans-Peter
HP
Reintjes
Ralf
R
Ahmad
Amena
A
Kassen
Annette
A
Eichner
Martin
M
D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006761:Hospitals; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011634:Public Health / Q000379:methods; D011790:Quarantine; D045169:Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D014611:Vaccination