[Predictive factors of smoking behaviour in secondary school children].
BACKGROUND
Many factors have been reported as being responsible for starting smoking during school age, but it is still not well known which cognitive determinants may be used as predictive factors of tobacco use.


METHODS
A prospective, longitudinal, study, including 417 pupils from 12 to 17 years, was carried out over three years in two rural Secondary Education Institutes in Castilla y León. The ESFA questionnaire was used, which included scales on attitudes and beliefs, social influences, self-efficacy, intention to smoke in the future and smoker behaviour.


RESULTS
Of the 417 pupils studied, 36.7 % were smokers (38.6 % females and 34.4 % males). The mean of starting smoking was 12 years (11.83-12.15). In the initial analysis there was a clear relationship between cognitive determinants and smoker behaviour. The advertising and peer pressure lost predictive value after 3 years. The multivariate analysis showed that the determining factors of tobacco use are, besides age (OR = 3.85; 95 % CI, 1.27-11.64), to have a favourable attitude to smoking, (OR = 4.47; 95 % CI, 2.15-9.32), and the conduct perceived among peers (OR = 5.05; 95 % CI, 2.50-10.19).


CONCLUSIONS
The determining factors that demonstrates a clear relationship with smoker behaviour are, age, favourable attitude of pupils towards smoking, and the perceived behaviour by smoker friends. Smoking prevention programs should take these factors into accounts when designing their activities.
Gómez Cruz
G
G
Centro de Salud La Guareña, Fuentesaúco, Zamora, España.
Barrueco Ferrero
M
M
Maderuelo Fernández
A
A
Aparicio Coca
I
I
Torrecilla García
M
M
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002391:Catchment Area, Health; D002648:Child; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D013334:Students / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires