title: Complexity and spectral analysis of the heart rate variability dynamics for distant prediction of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation with artificial intelligence methods.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) is a serious arrhythmia associated with morbidity and mortality. We explore the possibility of distant prediction of PAF by analyzing changes in heart rate variability (HRV) dynamics of non-PAF rhythms immediately before PAF event. We use that model for distant prognosis of PAF onset with artificial intelligence methods.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed 30-min non-PAF HRV records from 51 subjects immediately before PAF onset and at least 45min distant from any PAF event. We used spectral and complexity analysis with sample (SmEn) and approximate (ApEn) entropies and their multiscale versions on extracted HRV data. We used that features to train the artificial neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machine (SVM) classifiers to differentiate the subjects. The trained classifiers were further tested for distant PAF event prognosis on 16 subjects from independent database on non-PAF rhythm lasting from 60 to 320 min before PAF onset classifying the 30-min segments as distant or leading to PAF.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We found statistically significant increase in 30-min non-PAF HRV recordings from 51 subjects in the VLF, LF, HF bands and total power (p<0.0001) before PAF event compared to PAF distant ones. The SmEn and ApEn analysis provided significant decrease in complexity (p<0.0001 and p<0.001) before PAF onset. For training ANN and SVM classifiers the data from 51 subjects were randomly split to training, validation and testing. ANN provided better results in terms of sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp) and positive predictivity (Pp) compared to SVM which became biased towards positive case. The validation results of the ANN classifier we achieved: Se 76%, Sp 93%, Pp 94%. Testing ANN and SVM classifiers on 16 subjects with non-PAF HRV data preceding PAF events we obtained distant prediction of PAF onset with SVM classifier in 10 subjects (58+/-18 min in advance). ANN classifier provided distant prediction of PAF event in 13 subjects (62+/-21 min in advance).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  From the results of distant PAF prediction we conclude that ANN and SVM classifiers learned the changes in the HRV dynamics immediately before PAF event and successfully identified them during distant PAF prognosis on independent database. This confirms the reported in the literature results that corresponding changes in the HRV data occur about 60 min before PAF onset and proves the possibility of distant PAF prediction with ANN and SVM methods.
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Kuban State University, Stavropolskaya 149, Krasnodar, Russia. chesnokov.yuriy@gmail.com
authors.forename: Yuriy V
authors.initials: YV
authors.lastname: Chesnokov
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D001185:Artificial Intelligence; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology / Q000503:physiopathology*; D016208:Databases, Factual; D004562:Electrocardiography; D006339:Heart Rate / Q000502:physiology*; D006801:Humans; D010363:Pattern Recognition, Automated; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D025341:Principal Component Analysis; D011379:Prognosis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D013997:Time Factors