title: Analysis of age-at-death estimation through the use of pubic symphyseal data.
abstract: The question of whether age parameters derived from an American population will reliably estimate age-at-death for East European skeletal populations is important since the ability to accurately estimate an individual's age-at-death hinges on what standard is used. A reference sample of identified individuals with known ages-at-death from the regions of the Former Yugoslavia (n = 861) is used to determine the age structure of victims and serves as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Pubic symphyseal data in the manners of Todd (Am J Phys Anthropol, 3 [1920], 285; Am J Phys Anthropol, 4 [1921], 1) and Suchey-Brooks (Am J Phys Anthropol, 80 [1986], 167) were collected for n = 296 Balkan males and females and for n = 2078 American males and females. An analysis of deviance is calculated using an improvement chi-square to test for population variation in the aging processes of American and East European populations using proportional odds probit regression. When males and females are treated separately, there is a significant association among females and the population (df = 1, chi-square likelihood ratio = 15.071, p = 0.001). New age estimates for Balkan populations are provided and are based on the calculated age distribution from the Gompertz-Makeham hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density regions for each symphyseal phase are provided.
authors.affiliation: Department of Anthropology, University of South Florida, 4202 E. Fowler Avenue SOC 107, Tampa, FL 33620, USA. kimmerle@cas.usf.edu
authors.forename: Erin H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Kimmerle
authors.forename: Lyle W
authors.initials: LW
authors.lastname: Konigsberg
authors.forename: Richard L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Jantz
authors.forename: Jose Pablo
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Baraybar
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000365:Age Determination by Skeleton / Q000379:methods*; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D005061:Europe, Eastern; D005260:Female; D018732:Forensic Anthropology / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011631:Pubic Symphysis / Q000033:anatomy & histology*; D044469:Racial Groups; D012044:Regression Analysis; D014481:United States