title: A stochastic dynamical systems view of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
abstract: We provide a dynamical systems framework to understand the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and show that this framework is in many ways similar to that of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. A so-called minimal primitive equation model is used to represent the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Within this minimal model, we identify a normal mode of multidecadal variability that can destabilize the background climate state through a Hopf bifurcation. Next, we argue that noise is setting the amplitude of the sea surface temperature variability associated with this normal mode. The results provide support that a stochastic Hopf bifurcation is involved in the multidecadal variability as observed in the North Atlantic.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands. dijkstra@phys.uu.nl
authors.forename: H A
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Dijkstra
authors.forename: L M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Frankcombe
authors.forename: A S
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: von der Heydt