Logarithmic curves depicting initial level and rise of serum beta human chorionic gonadotropin and live delivery outcomes with in vitro fertilization: an analysis of 6021 pregnancies.
OBJECTIVE
To correlate the live delivery rate with the initial level and rise of serum beta-hCG.


METHODS
Retrospective cohort analysis.


METHODS
Large private academic center for assisted reproductive technologies and infertility.


METHODS
Records of all patients from 1999 to 2005 undergoing IVF with detectable early serum beta-hCG after ET.


METHODS
None.


METHODS
Live delivery rate.


RESULTS
Data from 6021 pregnancies were analyzed. Initial beta-hCG was predictive for delivery rate for all patients and for each age group. After controlling for the first beta-hCG, there were higher loss rates as age increased. Percent rise in second beta-hCG drawn 2 days later added predictive value. A decline in beta-hCG almost always resulted in a failure to deliver. There was a progressive increase in delivery rate as the percent rise in beta-hCG went from 0 to 100%; however, there was no further enhancement in delivery rates beyond the 100% rise point. While a better rise in beta-hCG was a good prognostic factor in all age groups, the differences in outcomes for the different age groups remained, even after controlling for first beta-hCG and percent rise.


CONCLUSIONS
Initial level and rise in beta-hCG predicts live delivery rate, with oocyte age providing additional predictive value. The established logarithmic curves should provide convenient reference tools for tracking outcomes and counseling patients.
Shamonki
Mousa I
MI
Division of Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility, University of California-Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA.
Frattarelli
John L
JL
Bergh
Paul A
PA
Scott
Richard T
RT
D000328:Adult; D018997:Chorionic Gonadotropin, beta Subunit, Human / Q000097:blood*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005307:Fertilization in Vitro; D006801:Humans; D011247:Pregnancy; D011256:Pregnancy Outcome; D018873:Pregnancy Rate; D012189:Retrospective Studies
D018997:Chorionic Gonadotropin, beta Subunit, Human