Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: impact of the MELD allocation system and predictors of survival.
OBJECTIVE
Since February 27, 2002, patients with early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have received priority for liver transplantation in the United States under the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) allocation system. We aimed to determine the impact of this system on liver transplantation for HCC.


METHODS
Data were provided by the United Network for Organ Sharing on 19,404 first-time, cadaveric, adult liver transplantations performed in the United States between 2002 and 2007 and 15,906 performed between 1997 and 2002, an equal-duration period immediately preceding the MELD allocation system.


RESULTS
In 1997-2002, 4.6% of liver transplant recipients had HCC compared with 26% in 2002-2007, the majority of whom received "HCC-MELD-exceptions" allowing expedited transplantation. Posttransplantation survival of patients with HCC without an "HCC-MELD-exception" was significantly worse than the survival of patients without HCC. In 2002-2007, patients with an "HCC-MELD-exception" had similar survival to patients without HCC. However, for the subgroup of patients with tumors 3-5 cm in size had significantly worse survival. When compared with patients with similar MELD scores, patients in the "HCC-MELD-exception" group had worse posttransplantation survival than patients without HCC. The most important predictors of poor posttransplantation survival were MELD score >/=20 (hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% CI: 1.3-2.1) and serum alpha-fetoprotein level >/=455 ng/mL (hazard ratio, 2.15; 95% CI: 1.5-2.0).


CONCLUSIONS
The adoption of the MELD allocation system has led to a 6-fold increase in the proportion of transplantation patients with HCC. Patients with larger (3-5 cm) tumors, serum alpha-fetoprotein level >/=455 ng/mL, or a MELD score >/=20 have poor posttransplantation survival.
Ioannou
George N
GN
Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Puget Sound Health Care System, Seattle, Washington, USA. georgei@medicine.washington.edu
Perkins
James D
JD
Carithers
Robert L
RL
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000150:complications / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D017093:Liver Failure / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000150:complications / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000379:methods*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology