A stochastic dynamical systems view of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
We provide a dynamical systems framework to understand the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and show that this framework is in many ways similar to that of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. A so-called minimal primitive equation model is used to represent the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Within this minimal model, we identify a normal mode of multidecadal variability that can destabilize the background climate state through a Hopf bifurcation. Next, we argue that noise is setting the amplitude of the sea surface temperature variability associated with this normal mode. The results provide support that a stochastic Hopf bifurcation is involved in the multidecadal variability as observed in the North Atlantic.
Dijkstra
H A
HA
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands. dijkstra@phys.uu.nl
Frankcombe
L M
LM
von der Heydt
A S
AS