Birthday and birthmate problems: misconceptions of probability among psychology undergraduates and casino visitors and personnel.
Subjective estimates and associated confidence ratings for the solutions of some classic occupancy problems were studied in samples of 721 psychology undergraduates, 39 casino visitors, and 34 casino employees. On tasks varying the classic birthday problem, i.e., the probability P for any coincidence among N individuals sharing the same birthday, clear majorities of respondents markedly overestimated N, given P, and markedly underestimated P, given N. Respondents did notedly better on tasks varying the birthmate problem, i.e., P for the specific coincidence among N individuals of having a birthday today. Psychology students and women did better on both task types, but were less confident about their estimates than casino visitors or per sonnel and men. Several further person variables, such as indicators of topical knowledge and familiarity, were associated with better and more confident performance on birthday problems, but not on birthmate problems. Likewise, higher confidence ratings were related to subjective estimates that were closer to the solutions of birthday problems, but not of birthmate problems. Implications of and possible explanations for these findings, study limitations, directions for further inquiry, and the real-world relevance of ameliorating misconceptions of probability are discussed.
Voracek
Martin
M
School of Psychology, University of Vienna, Austria. martin.voracek@univie.ac.at
Tran
Ulrich S
US
Formann
Anton K
AK
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005715:Gambling / Q000523:psychology; D006801:Humans; D019545:Intuition; D007600:Judgment; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011336:Probability; D011338:Probability Theory; D011340:Problem Solving; D011584:Psychology / Q000193:education; D012494:Sampling Studies; D012737:Sex Factors; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013334:Students / Q000523:psychology*; D013647:Task Performance and Analysis