title: Will generalist physician supply meet demands of an increasing and aging population?
abstract: We predict that population growth and aging will increase family physicians' and general internists' workloads by 29 percent between 2005 and 2025. We expect a 13 percent increased workload for care of children by pediatricians and family physicians. However, the supply of generalists for adult care, adjusted for age and sex, will increase 7 percent, or only 2 percent if the number of graduates continues to decline through 2008. We expect deficits of 35,000-44,000 adult care generalists, although the supply for care of children should be adequate. These forces threaten the nation's foundation of primary care for adults.
authors.affiliation: University of Missouri-Columbia, USA. colwillj@health.missouri.edu
authors.forename: Jack M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Colwill
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Cultice
authors.forename: Robin L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Kruse
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D007388:Internal Medicine / Q000639:trends; D007396:Internship and Residency; D010372:Pediatrics / Q000639:trends; D010821:Physicians, Family / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000639:trends; D011158:Population Growth; D014481:United States; D000078329:Workforce; D016526:Workload