Stochastic parametrization of multiscale processes using a dual-grid approach.
Some speculative proposals are made for extending current stochastic sub-gridscale parametrization methods using the techniques adopted from the field of computer graphics and flow visualization. The idea is to emulate sub-filter-scale physical process organization and time evolution on a fine grid and couple the implied coarse-grained tendencies with a forecast model. A two-way interaction is envisaged so that fine-grid physics (e.g. deep convective clouds) responds to forecast model fields. The fine-grid model may be as simple as a two-dimensional cellular automaton or as computationally demanding as a cloud-resolving model similar to the coupling strategy envisaged in 'super-parametrization'. Computer codes used in computer games and visualization software illustrate the potential for cheap but realistic simulation where emphasis is placed on algorithmic stability and visual realism rather than pointwise accuracy in a predictive sense. In an ensemble prediction context, a computationally cheap technique would be essential and some possibilities are outlined. An idealized proof-of-concept simulation is described, which highlights technical problems such as the nature of the coupling.
Shutts
Glenn
G
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK. glen.shutts@metoffice.gov.uk
Allen
Thomas
T
Berner
Judith
J