title: Understanding and predicting ecological dynamics: are major surprises inevitable?
abstract: Ecological surprises, substantial and unanticipated changes in the abundance of one or more species that result from previously unsuspected processes, are a common outcome of both experiments and observations in community and population ecology. Here, we give examples of such surprises along with the results of a survey of well-established field ecologists, most of whom have encountered one or more surprises over the course of their careers. Truly surprising results are common enough to require their consideration in any reasonable effort to characterize nature and manage natural resources. We classify surprises as dynamic-, pattern-, or intervention-based, and we speculate on the common processes that cause ecological systems to so often surprise us. A long-standing and still growing concern in the ecological literature is how best to make predictions of future population and community dynamics. Although most work on this subject involves statistical aspects of data analysis and modeling, the frequency and nature of ecological surprises imply that uncertainty cannot be easily tamed through improved analytical procedures, and that prudent management of both exploited and conserved communities will require precautionary and adaptive management approaches.
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA. ddoak@uwyo.edu
authors.forename: Daniel F
authors.initials: DF
authors.lastname: Doak
authors.forename: James A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Estes
authors.forename: Benjamin S
authors.initials: BS
authors.lastname: Halpern
authors.forename: Ute
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Jacob
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Lindberg
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lovvorn
authors.forename: Daniel H
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Monson
authors.forename: M Timothy
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Tinker
authors.forename: Terrie M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: J Timothy
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Wootton
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Carroll
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Emmerson
authors.forename: Fiorenza
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Micheli
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Novak
mesh_terms: D003625:Data Collection; D004190:Disasters; D004463:Ecology; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D008954:Models, Biological; D012106:Research / Q000639:trends*; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors; D035501:Uncertainty