title: Phosphorus release from agriculture to surface waters: past, present and future in China.
abstract: So far, there is no clear picture at national level regarding the severity, spatial distribution, trend and driving forces of phosphorus (P) release from agriculture to surface waters in China, which presents a major obstacle for surface water quality management and relevant policy-making. By applying a proposed Activity-Unit-Balance (AUB) methodology, this paper retrospects and prospects phosphorus release from agricultural activities to surface waters from 1978 to 2050 in China. Modelling results reveal that P load from agriculture has increased 3.4 times during 1978-2005 and will increase by 1.8 times during 2005-2050. Although major contribution factors are mineral fertiliser application (MFA) and livestock feeding activities (LFAs), LFAs will be the single largest source of increased total P load in the next decades. Most importantly, agricultural pollution in China is spatially overlapped with industrial and domestic pollution, and regions in the southeast to "Heihe-Tengchong" line have to be confronted with an austere challenge to control and manage industrial and domestic pollution as well as pollution from agriculture at present and in future.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China. cmp02@tsinghua.edu.cn
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D007220:Industrial Waste / Q000032:analysis; D010758:Phosphorus / Q000032:analysis*; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D007220:Industrial Waste; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D010758:Phosphorus