Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models--their nature and approaches to reduce them.
Radioecological assessment models are necessary tools for estimating the radiation exposure of humans and non-human biota. This paper focuses on factors affecting their predictive accuracy, discusses the origin and nature of the different contributions to uncertainty and variability and presents approaches to separate and quantify them. The key role of the conceptual model, notably in relation to its structure and complexity, as well as the influence of the number and type of input parameters, are highlighted. Guidelines are provided to improve the degree of reliability of radioecological models.
Kirchner
G
G
Federal Office for Radiation Protection, 38226 Salzgitter, Germany. GKirchner@bfs.de
Steiner
M
M
D003198:Computer Simulation; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis*; D008954:Models, Biological; D011829:Radiation Dosage; D011834:Radiation Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D012062:Relative Biological Effectiveness; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity