Economic analysis of the future growth of cosmetic surgery procedures.
BACKGROUND
The economic growth of cosmetic surgical and nonsurgical procedures has been tremendous. Between 1992 and 2005, annual U.S. cosmetic surgery volume increased by 725 percent, with over $10 billion spent in 2005. It is unknown whether this growth will continue for the next decade and, if so, what impact it will it have on the plastic surgeon workforce.


METHODS
The authors analyzed annual U.S. cosmetic surgery procedure volume reported by the American Society of Plastic Surgeons (ASPS) National Clearinghouse of Plastic Surgery Statistics between 1992 and 2005. Reconstructive plastic surgery volume was not included in the analysis. The authors analyzed the ability of economic and noneconomic variables to predict annual cosmetic surgery volume. The authors also used growth rate analyses to construct models with which to predict the future growth of cosmetic surgery.


RESULTS
None of the economic and noneconomic variables were a significant predictor of annual cosmetic surgery volume. Instead, based on current compound annual growth rates, the authors predict that total cosmetic surgery volume (surgical and nonsurgical) will exceed 55 million annual procedures by 2015. ASPS members are projected to perform 299 surgical and 2165 nonsurgical annual procedures. Non-ASPS members are projected to perform 39 surgical and 1448 nonsurgical annual procedures.


CONCLUSIONS
If current growth rates continue into the next decade, the future demand in cosmetic surgery will be driven largely by nonsurgical procedures. The growth of surgical procedures will be met by ASPS members. However, meeting the projected growth in nonsurgical procedures could be a potential challenge and a potential area for increased competition.
Liu
Tom S
TS
Los Angeles, Calif. From the Department of Surgery, Division of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, University of California, Los Angeles Medical Center.
Miller
Timothy A
TA
D000704:Analysis of Variance; D001294:Attitude to Health; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D019538:Health Care Surveys; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011336:Probability; D013518:Surgery, Plastic / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D014481:United States