Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: an application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990-2005.
Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time-series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data from rural South Africa for the period 1990-2005 collected from a demographic surveillance site. Application of the approach suggests that fertility decline has indeed stalled in rural KwaZulu-Natal, at about three children per woman. The stall, some 20 percent above the replacement fertility level, does not appear to be associated with a rise in wanted fertility or attenuated access to contraceptive methods. This identification of a stalled fertility decline provides the first evidence of such a stall in southern Africa, the region with the lowest fertility levels in sub-Saharan Africa.
Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town, South Africa. tom.moultrie@uct.ac.za
Tom A
TA
Moultrie
Victoria
V
Hosegood
Nuala
N
McGrath
Caterina
C
Hill
Kobus
K
Herbst
Marie-Louise
ML
Newell
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001723:Birth Rate / Q000639:trends*; D003710:Demography; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011247:Pregnancy; D012424:Rural Population; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology