Predictors of a favorable outcome in patients treated by chiropractors for neck pain.
METHODS
Prospective, multicenter, cohort study.


OBJECTIVE
To examine which clinical and sociodemographic baseline variables can predict a favorable outcome in subjects with neck pain treated by chiropractors.


BACKGROUND
Relatively little is known on predictors of neck pain, particularly for those subjects undergoing chiropractic care. No previous study has examined predictors of outcome for subjects with neck pain by modeling the trajectories of subjects in a longitudinal design.


METHODS
All new, consecutive patients, between 18 and 65 years of age with neck pain of any duration, who had not undergone chiropractic or manual therapy in the prior 3 months, were recruited. Questionnaires were administered at the first 3 visits, and at 3 and 12 months. In all, 29 putative prognostic baseline variables were evaluated. Multivariate multilevel longitudinal regression analyses were conducted using neck pain, neck disability, and perceived recovery as outcomes.


RESULTS
In total, 529 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The response rate at 12-months was 92%. In the multivariate analyses, 14 (48%) of the prognostic variables examined were retained in at least one of the models. Shorter duration of neck pain at the first visit was the only variable retained in all 3 final regression models. The following were predictive of a favorable outcome for any 2 of the 3 outcome measures examined: intermittent neck pain, those not on sick-leave or receiving workers compensation at baseline, a higher level of education, less tiredness, higher expectations that the treatment would be beneficial, lack of morning pain, and worse perceived general health.


CONCLUSIONS
On the basis of the patient's history, the clinician can identify a number of determinants, which are predictive of a favorable outcome. Shorter duration of neck pain at the first visit was the only variable consistently found to be predictive of a favorable outcome for all 3 outcome measures examined.
Institute for Research in Extramural Medicine (EMGO-Institute), VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. SM.Rubinstein@vumc.nl
Sidney M
SM
Rubinstein
Dirk L
DL
Knol
Charlotte
C
Leboeuf-Yde
Tammy E
TE
de Koekkoek
Charles E
CE
Pfeifle
Maurits W
MW
van Tulder
D000328:Adult; D003718:Denmark; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D006801:Humans; D026882:Manipulation, Chiropractic; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D019547:Neck Pain / Q000628:therapy*; D009426:Netherlands; D010147:Pain Measurement; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012107:Research Design; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome