Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia: analysis of data from the world health survey programme.
OBJECTIVE
To provide an accurate estimate of violent war deaths.


METHODS
Analysis of survey data on mortality, adjusted for sampling bias and censoring, from nationally representative surveys designed to measure population health. Estimated deaths compared with estimates in database of passive reports.


METHODS
2002-3 World health surveys, in which information was collected from one respondent per household about sibling deaths, including whether such deaths resulted from war injuries.


METHODS
Estimated deaths from war injuries in 13 countries over 50 years.


RESULTS
From 1955 to 2002, data from the surveys indicated an estimated 5.4 million violent war deaths (95% confidence interval 3.0 to 8.7 million) in 13 countries, ranging from 7000 in the Republic of Congo [corrected] to 3.8 million in Vietnam. From 1995 to 2002 survey data indicate 36,000 war deaths annually (16,000 to 71,000) in the 13 countries studied. Data from passive surveillance, however, indicated a figure of only a third of this. On the basis of the relation between world health survey data and passive reports, we estimate 378,000 globalwar deaths annually from 1985-94, the last years for which complete passive surveillance data were available.


CONCLUSIONS
The use of data on sibling history from peacetime population surveys can retrospectively estimate mortality from war. War causes more deaths than previously estimated, and there is no evidence to support a recent decline in war deaths.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA. ziad_obermeyer@hms.harvard.edu
Ziad
Z
Obermeyer
Christopher J L
CJ
Murray
Emmanuela
E
Gakidou
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005260:Female; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D017678:Sex Distribution; D014754:Violence / Q000639:trends*; D014857:Warfare