Epistemic uncertainty in the ranking and categorization of probabilistic safety assessment model elements: issues and findings.
In this work, we study the effect of epistemic uncertainty in the ranking and categorization of elements of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models. We show that, while in a deterministic setting a PSA element belongs to a given category univocally, in the presence of epistemic uncertainty, a PSA element belongs to a given category only with a certain probability. We propose an approach to estimate these probabilities, showing that their knowledge allows to appreciate "the sensitivity of component categorizations to uncertainties in the parameter values" (U.S. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.174). We investigate the meaning and utilization of an assignment method based on the expected value of importance measures. We discuss the problem of evaluating changes in quality assurance, maintenance activities prioritization, etc. in the presence of epistemic uncertainty. We show that the inclusion of epistemic uncertainly in the evaluation makes it necessary to evaluate changes through their effect on PSA model parameters. We propose a categorization of parameters based on the Fussell-Vesely and differential importance (DIM) measures. In addition, issues in the calculation of the expected value of the joint importance measure are present when evaluating changes affecting groups of components. We illustrate that the problem can be solved using DIM. A numerical application to a case study concludes the work.
Borgonovo
Emanuele
E
ELEUSI Research Center, Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University, Viale Isonzo 25.20135 Milano, Italy. emanuele.borgonovo@unibocconi.it
D019359:Knowledge; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011336:Probability; D012449:Safety; D035501:Uncertainty