Theoretical estimation of maximum human lifespan.
The existence of maximum human lifespan remains a puzzle in aging research. Maximum human lifespan is believed to be around 125 years, whereas current demographic trends seem to show no limitation. To reconcile this contrast, the estimation of maximum human lifespan requires an adequate mathematical model. However, sparse data of available old-age mortality pattern make the estimation impossible. Here we suggest an extended Weibull model for the estimation using a proper mathematical method based on survival probability pattern. We find a tendency that survival probability is maximized in modern human survival curves. Based on such tendency, we develop an estimation method for maximum human lifespan and indeed obtain about 126 years from periodic life tables for Swedish female between 1950 and 2005. Despite uncertainty from available mortality data, our approach may offer quantitative biodemographic opportunities linking aging and survival kinetics.
Weon
Byung Mook
BM
X-ray Imaging Center, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Republic of Korea.
Je
Jung Ho
JH
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007700:Kinetics; D008017:Life Expectancy; D015993:Life Tables; D008136:Longevity; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009026:Mortality; D011336:Probability; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013548:Sweden