Are the so-called low penetrance breast cancer genes, ATM, BRIP1, PALB2 and CHEK2, high risk for women with strong family histories?
A woman typically presents for genetic counselling because she has a strong family history and is interested in knowing the probability she will develop disease in the future; that is, her absolute risk. Relative risk for a given factor refers to risk compared with either population average risk (sense a), or risk when not having the factor, with all other factors held constant (sense b). Not understanding that these are three distinct concepts can result in failure to correctly appreciate the consequences of studies on clinical genetic testing. Several studies found that the frequencies of mutations in ATM, BRIP1, PALB2 and CHEK2 were many times greater for cases with a strong family history than for controls. To account for the selected case sampling (ascertainment), a statistical model that assumes that the effect of any measured variant multiplies the effect of unmeasured variants was applied. This multiplicative polygenic model in effect estimated the relative risk in the sense b, not sense a, and found it was in the range of 1.7 to 2.4. The authors concluded that the variants are "low penetrance". They failed to note that their model fits predicted that, for some women, absolute risk may be as high as for BRCA2 mutation carriers. This is because the relative risk multiplies polygenic risk, and the latter is predicted by family history. Therefore, mutation testing of these genes for women with a strong family history, especially if it is of early onset, may be as clinically relevant as it is for BRCA1 and BRCA2.
Byrnes
Graham B
GB
Epidemiology Methods and Support Group, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert Thomas, Lyon, France.
Southey
Melissa C
MC
Hopper
John L
JL
D000483:Alleles; D064007:Ataxia Telangiectasia Mutated Proteins; D018797:Cell Cycle Proteins / Q000235:genetics*; D064447:Checkpoint Kinase 2; D004252:DNA Mutational Analysis; D004268:DNA-Binding Proteins / Q000235:genetics*; D005192:Family Health; D000076164:Fanconi Anemia Complementation Group N Protein; D051856:Fanconi Anemia Complementation Group Proteins; D005260:Female; D020022:Genetic Predisposition to Disease; D006801:Humans; D009154:Mutation; D009687:Nuclear Proteins / Q000235:genetics*; D011336:Probability; D017346:Protein Serine-Threonine Kinases / Q000235:genetics*; D020365:RNA Helicases / Q000235:genetics*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012306:Risk; D012307:Risk Factors; D025521:Tumor Suppressor Proteins / Q000235:genetics*
D018797:Cell Cycle Proteins; D004268:DNA-Binding Proteins; D000076164:Fanconi Anemia Complementation Group N Protein; D051856:Fanconi Anemia Complementation Group Proteins; D009687:Nuclear Proteins; C512790:PALB2 protein, human; D025521:Tumor Suppressor Proteins; D064447:Checkpoint Kinase 2; C576324:ATM protein, human; D064007:Ataxia Telangiectasia Mutated Proteins; C578634:CHEK2 protein, human; D017346:Protein Serine-Threonine Kinases; C000618935:BRIP1 protein, human; D020365:RNA Helicases