Projections of surgical need in New Zealand: estimates of the need for surgery and surgeons to 2026.
OBJECTIVE
To estimate the volume of surgery that will be needed in New Zealand to 2026 considering current surgical rates, projected growth, and ageing of the population, and un-met need for surgery; to estimate the required size of the surgical workforce; and to estimate the appropriate number of surgical trainees


METHODS
An estimate of future surgical need was obtained by applying current age-specific rates of surgery to population projections to 2026. Estimates of un-met need were obtained by applying the surgical rates of favoured districts to all New Zealand. Data on the current surgical workforce was obtained from a survey of the New Zealand Fellows of the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons and vocationally registered non-Fellows who participate in the College's MOPS programme.


RESULTS
Overall, with population growth and ageing, surgical need is estimated to increase by between 36% and 59% by 2026, with a central estimate of a 51%. The size of the volume increase varies according to surgical specialty, with cardiothoracic (67%) and vascular surgery (89%) at the high end, otolaryngology (19%) at the low end, and general surgery (50%) and orthopaedics (56%) closer to the average. Un-met need is estimated at 26% of the present volume. To accommodate the population-related increased need, the number of surgeons should grow from 616 to 820; if un-met need were was also to be accommodated by 2026, the number of surgeons required would rise to 1055.


CONCLUSIONS
A long-term commitment to growth in surgical supply is needed if the future surgical needs of New Zealand are to be met and current standards are to be maintained or improved. Surgical needs analyses should be ongoing to assess the effects of factors not included in the present model.
Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand. antony.raymont@vuw.ac.nz
Antony
A
Raymont
John
J
Simpson
D005544:Forecasting; D013502:General Surgery; D006801:Humans; D020380:Needs Assessment; D009520:New Zealand; D011158:Population Growth; D013514:Surgical Procedures, Operative / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D000078329:Workforce