[About the risk to communicate risk].
An understanding of risk requires an understanding of probabilities and a minimum of statistical thinking. This understanding is the basis of an adequate risk communication, which is especially important in the field of medicine. Every day a practicing doctor is confronted with the question of how likely a patient is to have a disease when tested positive. Clinicians are not only asked to provide a correct answer to their patients but also a comprehensible one, if they want to assure that a patient is enabled to make an informed decision. Several studies suggest, however that clinicians struggle somewhat to come up with correct judgments concerning this issue and tend to heavily overestimate the risk. We will argue in this article that this problem is mainly based on how risks are presented. We will reveal some of the common pitfalls and make suggestions on how to interpret and communicate risks in an easy fashion.
Wegwarth
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O
Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Berlin. wegwarth@mpib-berlin.mpg.de
Gigerenzer
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G
D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D003142:Communication; D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D010817:Physician-Patient Relations; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D040242:Risk Reduction Behavior