title: Relationships between climate and year-to-year variability in meningitis outbreaks: a case study in Burkina Faso and Niger.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Every year, West Africa is afflicted with Meningococcal Meningitis (MCM) disease outbreaks. Although the seasonal and spatial patterns of disease cases have been shown to be linked to climate, the mechanisms responsible for these patterns are still not well identified.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A statistical analysis of annual incidence of MCM and climatic variables has been performed to highlight the relationships between climate and MCM for two highly afflicted countries: Niger and Burkina Faso. We found that disease resurgence in Niger and in Burkina Faso is likely to be partly controlled by the winter climate through enhanced Harmattan winds. Statistical models based only on climate indexes work well in Niger showing that 25% of the disease variance from year-to-year in this country can be explained by the winter climate but fail to represent accurately the disease dynamics in Burkina Faso.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study is an exploratory attempt to predict meningitis incidence by using only climate information. Although it points out significant statistical results it also stresses the difficulty of relating climate to interannual variability in meningitis outbreaks.
authors.affiliation: ProdiG, UMR 8586, 2 rue Valette, 75005, Paris, France. pascal_yaka@yahoo.fr
authors.forename: Pascal
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Yaka
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sultan
authors.forename: Hélène
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Broutin
authors.forename: Serge
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Janicot
authors.forename: Solenne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Philippon
authors.forename: Nicole
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Fourquet
mesh_terms: D000354:Africa, Western / Q000453:epidemiology; D002050:Burkina Faso / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008585:Meningitis, Meningococcal / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009548:Niger / Q000453:epidemiology; D012621:Seasons