title: Dynamically optimal strategies for managing resistance to genetically modified crops.
abstract: This paper develops a dynamic model of the evolution of pest a population and pest resistance to characterize the socially optimal refuge strategy for managing a pest's resistance to genetically modified crops. Previous theoretical economic analyses of this problem focus on steady states; we also address refuge policies along the optimal path to the final equilibrium. To elaborate on our theoretical analysis of the resistance problem, we develop a simulation model calibrated to cotton (Gossypium spp.) production in China. Our results show the importance of fitness cost as a determinant of the qualitative nature of optimal refuge policies.
authors.affiliation: China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics, No. 39 College South Road, Beijing 100081, China. qiaofb@yahoo.com.cn
authors.forename: Fangbin
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Qiao
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wilen
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rozelle
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000191:economics*; D007305:Insecticide Resistance; D007915:Lepidoptera; D008954:Models, Biological; D009036:Moths; D010935:Plant Diseases / Q000469:parasitology*; D030821:Plants, Genetically Modified