title: Mining unexpected temporal associations: applications in detecting adverse drug reactions.
abstract: In various real-world applications, it is very useful mining unanticipated episodes where certain event patterns unexpectedly lead to outcomes, e.g., taking two medicines together sometimes causing an adverse reaction. These unanticipated episodes are usually unexpected and infrequent, which makes existing data mining techniques, mainly designed to find frequent patterns, ineffective. In this paper, we propose unexpected temporal association rules (UTARs) to describe them. To handle the unexpectedness, we introduce a new interestingness measure, residual-leverage, and develop a novel case-based exclusion technique for its calculation. Combining it with an event-oriented data preparation technique to handle the infrequency, we develop a new algorithm MUTARC to find pairwise UTARs. The MUTARC is applied to generate adverse drug reaction (ADR) signals from real-world healthcare administrative databases. It reliably shortlists not only six known ADRs, but also another ADR, flucloxacillin possibly causing hepatitis, which our algorithm designers and experiment runners have not known before the experiments. The MUTARC performs much more effectively than existing techniques. This paper clearly illustrates the great potential along the new direction of ADR signal generation from healthcare administrative databases.
authors.affiliation: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Mathematical and Information Sciences, Canberra, A.C.T. 2601, Australia. huidong.jin@nicta.com.au
authors.forename: Huidong Warren
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Jin
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Hongxing
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: He
authors.forename: Graham J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: Chris
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Kelman
authors.forename: Christine M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: O'Keefe
mesh_terms: D016907:Adverse Drug Reaction Reporting Systems; D000465:Algorithms; D001185:Artificial Intelligence; D001315:Australia; D020000:Decision Support Systems, Clinical; D016247:Information Storage and Retrieval / Q000379:methods*; D019221:Mandatory Reporting; D016347:Medical Records Systems, Computerized; D010363:Pattern Recognition, Automated / Q000379:methods*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*