Cost-effectiveness analysis of a hypothetical hepatitis C vaccine compared to antiviral therapy.
We propose a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. We assumed that a hypothetical vaccine, which cost was taken to be the initial cost of the vaccine against hepatitis B exists and it is introduced in the model. We computed its cost-effectiveness compared with the anti-HCV therapy. The calculated basic reproduction number was 1.20. The model predicts that without intervention a steady state exists with an HCV prevalence of 3%, in agreement with the current epidemiological data. Starting from this steady state three interventions were simulated: indiscriminate vaccination, selective vaccination and anti-HCV therapy. Selective vaccination proved to be the strategy with the best cost-effectiveness ratio, followed by indiscriminate vaccination and anti-HCV therapy.
Massad
E
E
School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Brazil.
Coutinho
F A B
FA
Chaib
E
E
Burattini
M N
MN
D000998:Antiviral Agents / Q000191:economics*; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D001938:Brazil; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D006526:Hepatitis C / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014611:Vaccination / Q000191:economics; D014761:Viral Hepatitis Vaccines / Q000191:economics*
D000998:Antiviral Agents; D014761:Viral Hepatitis Vaccines