title: Rabies risk in raccoon dogs and foxes.
abstract: Raccoon dogs are seen as a new host for fox rabies in Europe. Disease spread in a community of species can change the epidemiology of the disease and calls for new disease control strategies. This study assesses the risk of a rabies outbreak, introduced to a community of foxes and raccoon dogs in Southern Finland, as an example of the reintroduction of rabies into rabies-free areas. Epidemiology is simulated with a two-species model, based on approaches for rabies in foxes and parameterised from recently published data on raccoon dog and fox ecology in Northeast Europe. The risk of the establishment of rabies was investigated. The effectiveness of vaccination control was estimated. Results show that rabies may not spread in a single species, when population densities are low, as in Finland. However, persistent epidemics are very likely in the species' community. The threshold density for a system of combined species decreases non-linearly, compared to the thresholds of each of the species. A behavioural factor that influences rabies epidemiology is raccoon dog hibernation, which may alter with climate change. Thus, the new host, the raccoon dog, has to be considered in defining new emergency control strategies for rabies free states in Europe.
authors.affiliation: Central Science Laboratory, Sand Hutton, York, United Kingdom. a.singer@csl.gov.uk
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Singer
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kauhala
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Holmala
authors.forename: G C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Smith
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D005260:Female; D005387:Finland / Q000453:epidemiology; D005589:Foxes / Q000821:virology*; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D006605:Hibernation; D008297:Male; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011818:Rabies / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D046031:Raccoon Dogs / Q000821:virology*; D012307:Risk Factors; D013045:Species Specificity