title: Application of epidemiology to change health policy: defining age-related thresholds of bone mineral density for primary prevention of fracture.
abstract: In Australia, benefits for antifracture therapies have been available for patients with osteoporosis and a prior fracture. No benefits were available to those with no prior fracture. We aimed to define, in women with no prior fracture, age-related thresholds of bone mineral density (BMD) associated with fracture risk equivalent to that of women with prior fracture and osteoporosis. A case-control study of women (> or =50 yr) was conducted, including 291 fracture cases and 823 controls. BMD was measured at the proximal femur and posterior anterior (PA) spine. A fracture risk score (FRS) for the group with no prior fracture was calculated with discriminant analysis. The thresholds for equivalent fracture risk between those with no prior fracture and those with prior fracture were assessed using logistic regression. Increasing the FRS to +0.98 in women with no prior fracture resulted in equivalent odds of sustaining a fracture to those with prior fracture and osteoporosis. The corresponding T-score thresholds at the spine were -4.6 at 50 yr, -3.9 at 60 yr, -3.1 at 70 yr, and -2.4 at 80 yr. The femoral neck T-score thresholds were lower by 0.5 standard deviation. The high-risk individuals defined by this study should be considered for primary fracture prevention therapy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical and Biomedical Sciences, Barwon Health, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. margh@BarwonHealth.org.au
authors.forename: Margaret J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Henry
authors.forename: Julie A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Pasco
authors.forename: Kerrie M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Sanders
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Kotowicz
authors.forename: Geoffrey C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Nicholson
mesh_terms: D015502:Absorptiometry, Photon; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015519:Bone Density; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D005260:Female; D050723:Fractures, Bone / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008875:Middle Aged; D015663:Osteoporosis, Postmenopausal / Q000150:complications / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011322:Primary Prevention; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors