title: A clinical prediction rule for urinary tract infections in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in primary care.
abstract: We aimed to develop a prediction rule for urinary tract infections (UTIs) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2). A 12-month prospective cohort study was conducted in patients with DM2 aged > or = 45 years to predict the occurrence of recurrent UTIs in women and lower UTIs in men. Predictors for recurrent UTI in women (n=81, 2%) and lower UTIs in men (n=93, 3%) were age, number of general practitioner (GP) visits, urinary incontinence, cerebrovascular disease or dementia. In women, renal disease was an additional predictor. The optimism [corrected] corrected area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) was 0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) for women and 0.75 (95% CI 0.70-0.80) for men. Using a cut-off score of 4, women with a lower risk assignment had a probability of 0.3% for the outcome. For a cut-off score of 6, women with a higher risk assignment had a probability of 5.8%. For men these figures were 0.8 and 7.1 for a cut-off score of 2 and 4, respectively. Simple variables can be used for the risk stratification of patients.
authors.affiliation: Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: L M A J
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Venmans
authors.forename: K J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Gorter
authors.forename: G E H M
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Rutten
authors.forename: F G
authors.initials: FG
authors.lastname: Schellevis
authors.forename: A I M
authors.initials: AI
authors.lastname: Hoepelman
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Hak
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011320:Primary Health Care; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D012008:Recurrence; D012307:Risk Factors; D014552:Urinary Tract Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*