title: The dynamic prediction of criminal recidivism: a three-wave prospective study.
abstract: A three-wave, prospective panel design was used to assess the extent to which static and dynamic risk factors could predict criminal recidivism in a sample of 136 adult male offenders released from Canadian federal prisons. Static measures were assessed only once, prior to release while dynamic measures were assessed on three separate occasions: pre-release, 1 month, and 3 months post-release. Recidivism was coded during an average of 10.2-month follow-up period (SD=19.2). A series of Cox regression survival analyses with time-dependent covariates and Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) analyses were conducted to assess predictive validity. Although the combined static and time-dependent dynamic model (AUC=.89, CI=.81-.93) significantly (p<.01) outperformed the pure static model (AUC=.81, CI=.73-.87) the confidence intervals did overlap to some extent. Implications for dynamic risk assessment and management are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology.
authors.forename: Shelley L
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-9372-407X
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology.
authors.forename: Michelle D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: St Amand
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology.
authors.forename: Edward
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Zamble
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011329:Prisoners; D011446:Prospective Studies; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales; D012008:Recurrence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors