title: Estimating the impact of childhood influenza vaccination programmes in England and Wales.
abstract: There is increasing interest in routine vaccination of children against influenza. We use an age-structured model to demonstrate that the long-term incidence of influenza A could decrease by 11-21% in the overall population by vaccinating individuals aged 6 to <24 months, and by 22-38% and 65-97% through targeting those aged 6 to <60 months and 6 months to 16 years, respectively. The corresponding reductions predicted for influenza B were 25-35%, 44-69% and 85-96%, respectively. These results are sensitive to assumptions about contact patterns and several parameters, including the vaccine efficacy among those aged <24 months, require further study. Consistently high levels of vaccination coverage among pre-school children has the potential to bring benefits to both those vaccinated and the community.
authors.affiliation: Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, 61 Colindale Avenue, Colindale, London NW9 5HT, UK. emilia.vynnycky@hpa.org.uk
authors.forename: Emilia
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Vynnycky
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Pitman
authors.forename: Ruby
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Siddiqui
authors.forename: Nigel
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Gay
authors.forename: W John
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Edmunds
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs; D007223:Infant; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000276:immunology*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000276:immunology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014611:Vaccination; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D007252:Influenza Vaccines