Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change.
Twenty-five-year population trends of 42 bird species rare as breeders in the UK were examined in relation to changes in climatic suitability simulated using climatic envelope models. The effects of a series of potential 'nuisance' variables were also assessed. A statistically significant positive correlation was found across species between population trend and climate suitability trend. The demonstration that climate envelope models are able to retrodict species' population trends provides a valuable validation of their use in studies of the potential impacts of future climatic changes.
Green
Rhys E
RE
Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK. reg29@hermes.cam.ac.uk
Collingham
Yvonne C
YC
Willis
Stephen G
SG
Gregory
Richard D
RD
Smith
Ken W
KW
Huntley
Brian
B
D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D005843:Geography; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D006113:United Kingdom