title: Relation between HIV viral load and infectiousness: a model-based analysis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  A consensus statement released on behalf of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS suggests that people receiving effective antiretroviral therapy-ie, those with undetectable plasma HIV RNA (<40 copies per mL)-are sexually non-infectious. We analysed the implications of this statement at a population level.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used a simple mathematical model to estimate the cumulative risk of HIV transmission from effectively treated HIV-infected patients (HIV RNA <10 copies per mL) over a prolonged period. We investigated the risk of unprotected sexual transmission per act and cumulatively over many exposures, within couples initially discordant for HIV status.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Assuming that each couple had 100 sexual encounters per year, the cumulative probability of transmission to the serodiscordant partner each year is 0.0022 (uncertainty bounds 0.0008-0.0058) for female-to-male transmission, 0.0043 (0.0016-0.0115) for male-to-female transmission, and 0.043 (0.0159-0.1097) for male-to-male transmission. In a population of 10 000 serodiscordant partnerships, over 10 years the expected number of seroconversions would be 215 (80-564) for female-to-male transmission, 425 (159-1096) for male-to-female transmission, and 3524 (1477-6871) for male-to-male transmission, corresponding to an increase in incidence of four times compared with incidence under current rates of condom use.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our analyses suggest that the risk of HIV transmission in heterosexual partnerships in the presence of effective treatment is low but non-zero and that the transmission risk in male homosexual partnerships is high over repeated exposures. If the claim of non-infectiousness in effectively treated patients was widely accepted, and condom use subsequently declined, then there is the potential for substantial increases in HIV incidence.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  Australian Research Council.
authors.affiliation: National Centre in HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia. Dwilson@nchecr.unsw.edu.au
authors.forename: David P
authors.initials: DP
authors.lastname: Wilson
authors.forename: Matthew G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Law
authors.forename: Andrew E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Grulich
authors.forename: David A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Cooper
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Kaldor
mesh_terms: D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000097:blood / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012367:RNA, Viral / Q000097:blood; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D019562:Viral Load
chemical_list: D044966:Anti-Retroviral Agents; D012367:RNA, Viral