title: Projection of tuberculosis incidence with increasing immigration trends.
abstract: Tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates vary substantially from regions to regions and from countries to countries. In countries such as Canada where TB incidence rate is low, increasing immigration trends may have significant impact on the TB transmission patterns in these countries. In this study we formulate a deterministic epidemiological model of TB transmission in two demographically distinct populations: Canadian born and foreign born populations, in order to investigate the effects of this demographic distinction on the short-term incidence and long-term transmission dynamics, and with special emphasis on the impact of immigration latent TB cases on the overall TB incidence rate in the whole population.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China. zhouyc@mail.xjtu.edu.cn
authors.forename: Yicang
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: Kamran
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.forename: Zhilan
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.forename: Jianhong
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wu
mesh_terms: D002170:Canada / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004641:Emigration and Immigration; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009169:Mycobacterium tuberculosis; D014376:Tuberculosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission