title: Ecological correlates of bluetongue virus in Spain: predicted spatial occurrence and its relationship with the observed abundance of the potential Culicoides spp. vector.
abstract: Using data from bluetongue (BT) outbreaks caused by viral serotype 4 (BTV-4) in Spain during 2004-2005, a predictive model for BTV-4 occurrence in peninsular Spain was developed. An autologistic regression model was employed to estimate the relationships between BTV-4 presence and bioclimatic-related and host-availability-related variables. In addition, the observed abundances of the main potential Culicoides vectors during 2004-2005, namely Culicoides imicola, Culicoides obsoletus group, and species of the Culicoides pulicaris group, were compared between BTV-4 presence/absence areas predicted by the model. BTV-4 occurrence was mainly explained by bioclimatic variables, although a consideration of host-availability variables led to improved fit of the model. The area of BTV-4 presence predicted by the model largely resembled the core distribution area of C. imicola, and this species was the most abundant Culicoides spp. in predicted BTV-4 presence areas. The results suggest that the spatial expansion of BTV-4 took place only as far as those areas in which C. imicola populations efficiently transmitted the virus.
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Sanidad y Producción Animal. Centro de Investigación y Tecnología, Agroalimentaria, Gobierno de Aragón, Zaragoza, Spain. ccalvete@aragon.es
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Calvete
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Estrada
authors.forename: M A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Miranda
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Borrás
authors.forename: J H
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Calvo
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lucientes
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D001820:Bluetongue virus / Q000254:growth & development*; D002519:Ceratopogonidae / Q000821:virology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D017753:Ecosystem; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000821:virology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D012621:Seasons; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology