title: Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany.
abstract: We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2 degrees C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally-averaged from 2,995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Ecology, UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, 06120 Halle, Germany. sven.pompe@ufz.de
authors.forename: Sven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Pompe
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hanspach
authors.forename: Franz
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Badeck
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Klotz
authors.forename: Wilfried
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Thuiller
authors.forename: Ingolf
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kühn
mesh_terms: D017753:Ecosystem; D005843:Geography; D005858:Germany; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D008954:Models, Biological; D010944:Plants