title: A fuzzy reed-frost model for epidemic spreading.
abstract: In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.
authors.affiliation: Discipline of Medical Informatics, School of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil. neli@dim.fm.usp.br
authors.forename: Neli R S
authors.initials: NR
authors.lastname: Ortega
authors.forename: Fabiano S
authors.initials: FS
authors.lastname: Santos
authors.forename: Dirce M T
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Zanetta
authors.forename: Eduardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Massad
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D002648:Child; D002656:Child Day Care Centers; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D017143:Fuzzy Logic; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008954:Models, Biological; D010850:Picornaviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology; D012141:Respiratory Tract Infections / Q000453:epidemiology; D013269:Stochastic Processes