title: Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models.
abstract: The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections.
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France. sophie.rickebusch@ed.ac.uk
authors.forename: Sophie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rickebusch
authors.forename: Wilfried
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Thuiller
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hickler
authors.forename: Miguel B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Arau Jo
authors.forename: Martin T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Sykes
authors.forename: Oliver
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Schweiger
authors.forename: Bruno
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lafourcade
mesh_terms: D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000502:physiology*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005060:Europe; D008954:Models, Biological; D014197:Trees / Q000502:physiology*; D014867:Water / Q000502:physiology*
chemical_list: D014867:Water; D002245:Carbon Dioxide