title: Is probability the only coherent approach to uncertainty?
abstract: In this article, I discuss an argument that purports to prove that probability theory is the only sensible means of dealing with uncertainty. I show that this argument can succeed only if some rather controversial assumptions about the nature of uncertainty are accepted. I discuss these assumptions and provide reasons for rejecting them. I also present examples of what I take to be non-probabilistic uncertainty.
authors.affiliation: Department of Philosophy, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. mcolyvan@usyd.edu.au
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Colyvan
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D017143:Fuzzy Logic; D011336:Probability; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment; D035501:Uncertainty