Expert judgment-based risk assessment using statistical scenario analysis: a case study-running the bulls in Pamplona (Spain).
In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high-quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull-run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of "experts on the bull-run" represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull-run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions.
Mallor
Fermín
F
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Public University of Navarre, Spain. mallor@unavarra.es
García-Olaverri
Carmen
C
Gómez-Elvira
Sagrario
S
Mateo-Collazas
Pedro
P
D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D006801:Humans; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012420:Running; D013030:Spain; D014947:Wounds and Injuries