[The beginning of the end of the lung cancer epidemic among Dutch women].
OBJECTIVE
To describe and interpret recent changes in lung cancer mortality and incidence, and changes in smoking prevalence among young and middle-aged women in The Netherlands.


METHODS
Secondary data analysis.


METHODS
Mortality data were collected from Statistics Netherlands (CBS; 1960-2006), data on the incidence were obtained from The Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR; 1989-2003), and data on smoking prevalence were collected from the Dutch Foundation on Smoking and Health (STIVORO; 1988-2007). Mortality and incidence rates were calculated for four age groups (20-44, 45-49, 50-54 and 55-59 years). Changes in trends in mortality and smoking prevalence were examined using joinpoint regression and birth cohort analysis.


RESULTS
Since the 1960s, lung cancer mortality and incidence has increased dramatically among women in The Netherlands. In the mid-1990s, lung cancer mortality and incidence rates in young women (aged < 50 years) surpassed those in men. Mortality rates in young women (aged 20-49 years) increased 4-6% annually. However, these rates started to stabilise since 1999. Among women born after 1950, mortality rates and smoking prevalence have decreased.


CONCLUSIONS
An end to the lung cancer epidemic in women in The Netherlands is in sight. The first indications are the recent reduction in mortality and incidence among young women, particularly in women born after 1950. In the future, this reduction is expected to translate into a stabilisation or modest decrease in total lung cancer mortality and incidence.
Karim-Kos
H E
HE
Erasmus MC-Centrum, afd. Maatschappelijke Gezondheidszorg, Postbus 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam. h.karim@erasmusmc.nl
Janssen-Heijnen
M L G
ML
van Iersel
C A
CA
van der Meer
R M
RM
de Vries
E
E
Coebergh
J W W
JW
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D012042:Registries; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000453:epidemiology