title: Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora.
abstract: The flora of California, a global biodiversity hotspot, includes 2387 endemic plant taxa. With anticipated climate change, we project that up to 66% will experience >80% reductions in range size within a century. These results are comparable with other studies of fewer species or just samples of a region's endemics. Projected reductions depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse from their current locations. California's varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. However, our projections also identify regions where species undergoing severe range reductions may persist. Protecting these potential future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change.
authors.affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment & Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, United States of America. scott.loarie@duke.edu
authors.forename: Scott R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Loarie
authors.forename: Benjamin E
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Carter
authors.forename: Katharine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Hayhoe
authors.forename: Sean
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: McMahon
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Moe
authors.forename: Charles A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Knight
authors.forename: David D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Ackerly
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D002140:California; D002980:Climate; D003246:Conservation of Energy Resources / Q000639:trends; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D063245:Plant Development; D010944:Plants / Q000145:classification; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013045:Species Specificity; D014197:Trees / Q000145:classification / Q000254:growth & development