title: Predicting ambulance diversion in an adult Emergency Department using a Gaussian process.
abstract: When the Emergency Department (ED) reaches a critical level of overcrowding, it diverts ambulances to other hospitals. We evaluated the accuracy of a Gaussian process for prediction of ambulance diversion using March 1, 2005 November 30, 2005 data. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for 120 minutes in advance was 0.93 (SE: 0.19). The instrument demonstrated a high AUC and may be used to alert ED managers earlier of a diversion episode.
authors.affiliation: Vanderbilt Center for Better Health, Vanderbilt University, Nashville TN, USA.
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Leegon
authors.forename: Nathan
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Hoot
authors.forename: Dominik
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Aronsky
authors.forename: Amos
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Storkey
mesh_terms: D000046:Academic Medical Centers / Q000458:organization & administration; D000552:Ambulances; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001509:Bed Occupancy; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000458:organization & administration*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer; D010360:Patient Transfer / Q000458:organization & administration*