title: Probabilistic risk analysis of building contamination.
abstract: We present a general framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of building contamination. PRA provides a powerful tool for the rigorous quantification of risk in contamination of building spaces. A typical PRA starts by identifying relevant components of a system (e.g. ventilation system components, potential sources of contaminants, remediation methods) and proceeds by using available information and statistical inference to estimate the probabilities of their failure. These probabilities are then combined by means of fault-tree analyses to yield probabilistic estimates of the risk of system failure (e.g. building contamination). A sensitivity study of PRAs can identify features and potential problems that need to be addressed with the most urgency. Often PRAs are amenable to approximations, which can significantly simplify the approach. All these features of PRA are presented in this paper via a simple illustrative example, which can be built upon in further studies.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The tool presented here can be used to design and maintain adequate ventilation systems to minimize exposure of occupants to contaminants.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. diogobolster@gmail.com
authors.forename: D T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Bolster
authors.forename: D M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Tartakovsky
mesh_terms: D016902:Air Pollution, Indoor / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005160:Facility Design and Construction; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014691:Ventilation / Q000295:instrumentation* / Q000592:standards*