title: Practical prognostic index for patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to identify factors that predict treatment outcome in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine, and then to use these factors to develop a practical prognostic index.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective study was performed on 66 consecutive patients with histologically confirmed pancreatic adenocarcinoma who were treated with gemcitabine. Factors that predicted treatment outcome were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses using the Cox proportional hazards model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Multivariate analysis identified Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, primary tumor location, and C-reactive protein as important independent predictive factors. Prognostic score was calculated using the following formula: score = (1 if performance status is 0 or 1; 2 if performance status is 2; and 5 if performance status is 3) + (1 if primary site is body or tail, 3 if primary site is head) + (1 if C-reactive protein is <1 mg/dL, 3 if C-reactive protein is 1-3 mg/dL, 6 if C-reactive protein is >3 mg/dL). Patients were accordingly divided into three groups: good (prognostic index = 3 or 4), fair (prognostic index = 5-7), and poor (prognostic index = 8). Median survival was 265, 155, and 65 days for each group, respectively (P < 0.0001). The internally validated c-index (receiver operating characteristics area under the curve) of this model was 0.711. Applied to another data set, the externally validated c-index was 0.692. Prognosis was favorable in the good prognosis group, patients in the fair prognosis group were likely to benefit from gemcitabine, and those in the poor prognosis group were unlikely to benefit.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This index improved predictive ability in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine, which may be helpful in counseling patients and making first treatment decisions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, Japan. asawaki@aichi-cc.jp
authors.forename: Akira
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sawaki
authors.forename: Yukihide
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Kanemitsu
authors.forename: Nobumasa
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Mizuno
authors.forename: Kuniyuki
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Takahashi
authors.forename: Tsuneya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nakamura
authors.forename: Tatsuya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ioka
authors.forename: Sachiko
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tanaka
authors.forename: Akihiko
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Nakaizumi
authors.forename: Ahmed As
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Salem
authors.forename: Ryuzo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ueda
authors.forename: Kenji
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yamao
mesh_terms: D000230:Adenocarcinoma / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000556:secondary; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000964:Antimetabolites, Antineoplastic / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D003841:Deoxycytidine / Q000031:analogs & derivatives* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000556:secondary; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D000093542:Gemcitabine
chemical_list: D000964:Antimetabolites, Antineoplastic; D003841:Deoxycytidine; D000093542:Gemcitabine