title: The natural history of bone marrow lesions in community-based adults with no clinical knee osteoarthritis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Although bone marrow lesions (BML) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis, their natural history in a healthy population is unknown. This study in a healthy, pain-free population aimed to examine the natural history of BML; factors associated with incidence and progression of BML over 2 years and whether incident BML are associated with the development of pain.
  
  
  METHODS
  271 subjects with no clinical knee osteoarthritis, being pain free at baseline, underwent magnetic resonance imaging of their dominant knee at baseline and 2 years later. The presence of BML was assessed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In knees initially free of BML, incident BML developed in 14% of people over the study period. Increased body mass index (BMI; odds ratio (OR) 1.15, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.2, p = 0.001) was associated with incident BML. Those who developed a BML were more likely to develop knee pain compared with those in whom no BML developed (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.2 to 15.1, p = 0.03). Among those in whom BML were present at baseline, 46% completely resolved. There was no association between age, gender and BMI and persistence of BML over 2 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In this healthy population, the rate of incident BML is lower than previously described in a population with osteoarthritis. Incident BML are associated with increased BMI and the development of pain. Approximately half the BML present at baseline resolved. These data suggest that in pain-free people with no clinical knee osteoarthritis, BML are reversible and may provide a target for interventions aimed at the prevention of knee osteoarthritis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Central and Eastern Clinical School, Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Australia.
authors.forename: M L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Davies-Tuck
authors.forename: A E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Wluka
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: D R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: English
authors.forename: G G
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Giles
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Cicuttini
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000886:Anthropometry; D001853:Bone Marrow / Q000473:pathology*; D001855:Bone Marrow Diseases / Q000473:pathology*; D002358:Cartilage, Articular / Q000473:pathology; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007719:Knee Joint; D016015:Logistic Models; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D008592:Menisci, Tibial / Q000473:pathology; D008875:Middle Aged; D050177:Overweight / Q000473:pathology; D010146:Pain / Q000473:pathology; D011446:Prospective Studies