[Impact of climatic change on the epidemiology of diseases].
Potential climate driven changes in the epidemiology of human and animal disease are widely discussed and complex to assess. Recent spreads of exotic pathogens or vectors feed speculations; although most of these introductions are mainly linked to the increased worldwide traffic, trade of goods and transportation of animal and human, abiotic factors are known to impact on vectors and pathogens bionomics and their ability to establish in new ecosystems; altogether changes in climatic patterns and in seasonal conditions may affect disease behaviour in term of spread pattern, diffusion range, amplification and persistence in novel habitats. Invasion may result in the emergence of novel disease processes, presenting major challenges for the epidemiologists. In this paper, some of the ecological mechanisms underlying the impact of climatic change on disease transmission and disease spread are further described. Potential effects of different climatic variables on pathogens and hosts population dynamics and distributions are complex to assess and different approaches are used to describe the dynamics in ecological range and the availability of ecological niches for pathogens and vectors. However even when linkage between disease dynamics and climate change are relatively strong, there are always other factors also changing disease behaviour and these should be accounted for as well.
de La Rocque
S
S
Organisation des Nations Unies pour l'alimentation et l'agriculture (FAO), Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italie. stephane.delarocque@fao.org
Rioux
J A
JA
D000349:Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D004199:Disease Vectors; D017753:Ecosystem; D006801:Humans; D007896:Leishmaniasis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission; D012621:Seasons