Predicting ambulance diversion in an adult Emergency Department using a Gaussian process.
When the Emergency Department (ED) reaches a critical level of overcrowding, it diverts ambulances to other hospitals. We evaluated the accuracy of a Gaussian process for prediction of ambulance diversion using March 1, 2005 November 30, 2005 data. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for 120 minutes in advance was 0.93 (SE: 0.19). The instrument demonstrated a high AUC and may be used to alert ED managers earlier of a diversion episode.
Leegon
Jeffrey
J
Vanderbilt Center for Better Health, Vanderbilt University, Nashville TN, USA.
Hoot
Nathan
N
Aronsky
Dominik
D
Storkey
Amos
A
D000046:Academic Medical Centers / Q000458:organization & administration; D000552:Ambulances; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001509:Bed Occupancy; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital / Q000458:organization & administration*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer; D010360:Patient Transfer / Q000458:organization & administration*