Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score for predicting late esophageal varices rebleeding in cirrhotic patients.
OBJECTIVE
Esophageal varices bleeding is a fatal complication of portal hypertension. The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been used as a tool to predict mortality risk in cirrhotic patients. It is currently unknown if MELD score can be applied to predicting late esophageal varices rebleeding. The predictive ability of the MELD score for short-term esophageal varices rebleeding was studied.


METHODS
Ninety-five cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices bleeding were enrolled with a follow up period of at least 3 months. All patients had undergone a successful hemostasis at admission. Initial admission MELD score and 3-months MELD were obtained to observe their correlation with the late esophageal varices rebleeding.


RESULTS
MELD score of 13 and 16 are the mean MELD score of the admission and 3-months respectively in the rebleeding group. The correlation between initial admission MELD score and late stage data showed a positive linear regression in the rebleeding patients (p=0.001, r=0.773) but not in the non-rebleeding group.


CONCLUSIONS
The MELD score is a good predictor of short term esophageal varices rebleeding rate. At least 2 MELD score data is needed to evaluate the possibilities of rebleeding
Fong
Tze-Vun
TV
Division of Hepato-Gastroenterology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Hung
Fu-Chih
FC
Chiu
King-Wah
KW
Chiu
Yi-Chun
YC
Wu
Keng-Liang
KL
Kuo
Chung-Huang
CH
Kuo
Chung-Mo
CM
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001663:Bilirubin / Q000097:blood; D003404:Creatinine / Q000097:blood; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy; D005260:Female; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008026:Ligation; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D017093:Liver Failure / Q000150:complications* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D008111:Liver Function Tests / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012008:Recurrence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D015911:Sclerotherapy
D003404:Creatinine; D001663:Bilirubin