title: Strategy formulation for schistosomiasis japonica control in different environmental settings supported by spatial analysis: a case study from China.
abstract: With the aim of exploring the usefulness of spatial analysis in the formulation of a strategy for schistosomiasis japonica control in different environmental settings, a population-based database was established in Dangtu county, China. This database, containing the human prevalence of schistosomiasis at the village level from 2001 to 2004, was analyzed by directional trend analysis supported with ArcGIS 9.0 to select the optimum predictive approach. Based on the approach selected, different strata of prevalence were classified and the spatial distribution of human infection with Schistosoma japonicum was estimated. The second-order ordinary kriging approach of spatial analysis was found to be optimal for prediction of human prevalence of S. japonicum infection. The mean prediction error was close to 0 and the root-mean-square standardised error was close to 1. Starting with the different environmental settings for each stratum of transmission, four areas were classified according to human prevalence, and different strategies to control transmission of schistosomiasis were put forward. We conclude that the approach to use spatial analysis as a tool to predict the spatial distribution of human prevalence of S. japonicum infection improves the formulation of strategies for schistosomiasis control in different environmental settings at the county level.
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200025, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Zhao
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Xiao-Nong
authors.initials: XN
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Xiang-Hong
authors.initials: XH
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Zhen-Qi
authors.initials: ZQ
authors.lastname: Yao
authors.forename: Tian-Ping
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Guo-Jing
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Ying-Jing
authors.initials: YJ
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Shi-Qing
authors.initials: SQ
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Jian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Tie-Wu
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Jia
authors.forename: Xiao-Hua
authors.initials: XH
authors.lastname: Wu
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003710:Demography; D005544:Forecasting; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D006801:Humans; D008390:Markov Chains; D012554:Schistosomiasis japonica / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*