title: A prospective study of glycemia, body size, insulin resistance and the risk of hypertension in Mauritius.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate the associations between new-onset hypertension and glycemia, insulin resistance, and overall and regional adiposity in a prospective study conducted in Mauritius.
  
  
  METHODS
  Three thousand five hundred and eighty-one adults without hypertension, pregnancy, or known diabetes at baseline (1987) were followed for incident hypertension in 1992 and 1998, (systolic blood pressure > or =140 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure > or =90 mmHg or antihypertensive medication treatment). Other measurements included fasting plasma glucose and 2-h plasma glucose after a 75-g oral glucose load, fasting insulin, BMI, waist circumference, smoking, alcohol use, exercise, and demographic information. Insulin sensitivity was estimated by the computerized homeostasis model assessment (HOMA2) program.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In multivariable logistic models that included age, gender, ethnicity, alcohol use, exercise, education, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, homeostasis model assessment, fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, BMI, and waist circumference, the independent predictors of incident hypertension by time of follow-up were (odds ratio for a 1 SD increase; 95% confidence interval): 1992 - age (1.73; 1.47-2.03), Creole ethnicity (1.42; 1.04-1.94), 2-h plasma glucose (1.26; 1.04-1.51); 1998 - age (1.60; 1.40-1.83) and BMI (1.33; 1.05-1.69). Also, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure significantly predicted hypertension at both time points.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Risk factor patterns depended on duration of follow-up. Over 5 years, hypertension was related to 2-h plasma glucose but not to measures of body size or homeostasis model assessment, while over 11 years, incident hypertension was related to BMI but not waist circumference, 2-h plasma glucose, or homeostasis model assessment. These findings support a more important role for 2-h plasma glucose and overall adiposity than waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose, or insulin resistance in the development of hypertension in Mauritius.
authors.affiliation: International Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, Australia. eboyko@u.washington.edu
authors.forename: Edward J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Boyko
authors.forename: Jonathan E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Shaw
authors.forename: Paul Z
authors.initials: PZ
authors.lastname: Zimmet
authors.forename: Pierrot
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Chitson
authors.forename: Jaakko
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tuomilehto
authors.forename: Kurt George M M
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Alberti
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D049628:Body Size; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006943:Hyperglycemia / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015994:Incidence; D007333:Insulin Resistance; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008436:Mauritius / Q000453:epidemiology; D024821:Metabolic Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors